Monthly Retirement Slow-Trade system

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dpong, your thread is the only one that makes logical sense in the trading world.

Seems all the rest are standing on shifting sand attempting to predict where the sand will move to next.

Like Jim Cramer....
 
I rolled over a 401k to an ira at the beginning of Dec. The funds are currently sitting in cash. I am trying to decide when to put the funds back in. This may help me decide.
 
MrLucky said:
I rolled over a 401k to an ira at the beginning of Dec. The funds are currently sitting in cash. I am trying to decide when to put the funds back in. This may help me decide.
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That is the point of this system. Good luck!
 
Dpong, I also dont remember the thread at GIM. May I ask why a 20 month moving average? why not 12 or 18?
 
When I try to reconstruct how I came to this system I think this is what happened. First, I had been struggling with wishing to participate in the markets in my retirement accounts, but had a lot of fear about participating in major crashes like 2008. I was out of the market a lot of time that I should have been in it. So this topic was on my mind.

I believe I listened to a "Chat with Traders" podcast, and the guest mentioned a 20 month moving average system. It was a throw-away line and they didn't discuss it. However, I was intrigued and searched the internet and found that some people in fact do use a 20 month moving average to get into and out of the markets. So it is a real thing.

I studied it on the charts going back through the dot.com bubble crash and the 2008 GFC, and I saw that it works to get one out of the dirt nap dives.

So, I imagine other moving averages could accomplish similar results. But when I looked at 20 month moving average it works well enough. I feel like trying to find a moving average that in the past has worked "the best", it may not work the best in the future. So the answer is the 20 works good enough.
 
Do you purchase a basket of individual stocks of your choosing, or an S&P fund managed by your 401k service provider? Its an interesting idea that I could see myself playing around with.
 
smooth said:
Do you purchase a basket of individual stocks of your choosing, or an S&P fund managed by your 401k service provider? Its an interesting idea that I could see myself playing around with.
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The options in my retirement accounts are very limited. So I choose a large cap stock fund that is primarily US based.
 
As a side benefit to dpong's slow trade method, the funds I have sitting in a money market fund got 3.5% interest for Dec. So the money isn't sitting idle.
 
[I posted this elsewhere where it will soon scroll off the page. I think it belongs in this thread too, which moves much more slowly. Apology for minor duplicate post.]

From Market Wizards interview with Ed Seykota.

Q: What are the elements of good trading?

A: The elements of good trading are (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, (3) cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance.

[This is what my slow-mo retirement trading system is *all* about.]
 
January 2023 has closed trading. The S&P 500 monthly price remains below the 20 month moving average. As such, we will remain in cash for all of February before we check the chart again. So far we have been in cash for 9 months and are now guaranteed to stay in cash for a minimum of 10 months.

Notice the 20 month moving average is starting to roll over lazily. It now has a negative slope and should continue moving downward so long as the price remains below it.

SPX_2023-01-31_16-17-26.png
 
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I was curious if you'd post this quick considering this is a "slow" topic. Was reading an article regarding the direction of the vix vs the s&p. Was interesting.
 
It is February 2nd, 2023 and finally we are getting some tension.

[Will we or won't we? See you Feb 28th with the answer!]

SPX_2023-02-02_11-24-17.png
 
We won't. [See previous post.]

The S&P 500 monthly price closed beneath the 20 month moving average again at the end of February. Thus we will remain in cash equivalents in our slow-trade retirement accounts.

We have been in cash for a full 10 months and are now guaranteed to stay in cash for at least 11 months. We will check back in on March 31st to make our next decision.

SPX_2023-02-28_16-07-16.png
 
dpong said:
We won't. [See previous post.]

The S&P 500 monthly price closed beneath the 20 month moving average again at the end of February. Thus we will remain in cash equivalents in our slow-trade retirement accounts.

We have been in cash for a full 10 months and are now guaranteed to stay in cash for at least 11 months. We will check back in on March 31st to make our next decision.

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That looks Really Bearish. I think we are at the crash part of the debt bubble and either do that or, as they will do, monetize that debt and we go Hyperinflation.
 
I wonder how this system compares (in terms of historical performance) versus the AANA system.

All Asset No Authority trading system

... We’re talking about a simple portfolio that absolutely anyone could follow in their own 401(k) or IRA or retirement account. Low cost, no muss, no fuss. And it’s managed to do two powerful things simultaneously. It’s beaten the standard Wall Street portfolio of 60% U.S. stocks and 40%...
www.pmbug.com www.pmbug.com
 
Sometime back around the turn of the century, and before that other gold website was founded, the founding members used to hang out at a website forum called gold eagle run by a guy named Vronski if I recall correctly. There was an old timer on that site who was very generous with his advice about investing.

He showed us a system which is very similar to your AANA system. One of the great things about the system was that it had different investment areas that are sometimes not correlated.

I do favor a system such as this, and I think it has a good chance of growing and staying positive over time.

Due to the details of my retirement accounts it would be somewhat difficult to pull it off. For example finding a normie company-provided 401K plan that would allow commodity or (god forbid) gold investment would require a very good luck of the draw.

However, I am very favorable to such a system.
 
Yada yada yada.

We've been in cash for 11 months now. With S&P price still below the 20 month moving average, we will check the price at the end of April when we will have been out of the market for 12 months.

SPX_2023-03-31_16-00-59.png
 
You may be in cash for some time. Hopefully your cash is fdic insured. I'm using this "downtme" to do roth conversions.
 
April is in the tank.

S&P 500 closed below the 20 month moving average, but just by a tiny amount.

MA = 4175, closing price = 4169. Man that was close!

I'm glad it closed below the 20 MA, because it doesn't feel like a good time to buy. But this thread is not about predicting, but simply using a simple system to react to what occurs.

We've been out of the market for a full 12 months at this time and are guaranteed to be out 13 months. We will check the price vs MA at the end of May.

[Whew, that was close, man.]

SPX_2023-04-28_16-01-47.png
 
[Slow and boring, but it beats buy-and-hold.]
 
IT HAS OCCURRED!!

The S&P 500 Monthly price chart has closed higher than the 20 month moving average.
S&P 500 Close = 4180.12
20 Month MA = 4168.81

Accordingly, I will move back to 100% stocks in my Slow Trade retirement accounts immediately. We were in cash for 13 months, and now will be in stocks for at least 1 month when we will check again at the end of June.

SPX_2023-05-31_16-02-06.png
 
Do you put your $$ in one fund when you reenter the market
dpong said:
IT HAS OCCURRED!!

The S&P 500 Monthly price chart has closed higher than the 20 month moving average.
S&P 500 Close = 4180.12
20 Month MA = 4168.81

Accordingly, I will move back to 100% stocks in my Slow Trade retirement accounts immediately. We were in cash for 13 months, and now will be in stocks for at least 1 month when we will check again at the end of June.

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?
 
Stoli said:
Do you put your $$ in one fund when you reenter the market


?
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I do. I prefer a large cap fund because it should closely mimic my proxy S&P 500 index.

Some of my retirement accounts make you wait 60 days before re-entering a stock fund. For that reason, I will put all the money in 1 large cap fund. That way, if I go to stocks, then 1 month later go to cash, then 1 month later go back to stocks I can enter the stock fund that I didn't use before.

I'm messing up the explanation. If there are 2 large cap funds in that account I'll just go into one of them. If I have to switch within 60 days back and forth I can enter the large cap fund that I didn't choose before.

[Other than that, I would probably split the money across several similar funds. But it is what it is. This system is only supposed to be more suitable for me than buy and hold. And it is doing that for me, so far.]
 
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Oh. To anyone who stumbles across this thread I would like to stipulate:

This system does not predict anything. That S&P closed above its 20 month moving average does not predict that it will go higher. This system is not predictive. It is simply reactive.

If S&P closes June below the 20 month moving average, I will simply move back into cash. It costs me nothing to take this action, as in no commissions or fees. So with this system we will adapt to whatever is happening.

No predictions.
 
The month of July has closed above the 20 month moving average!

In June we put on 6.47% and in July we added 3.11%.

So, we're feeling pretty good about this. We were in cash equivalents for the 13 months collecting some small interest. Now we're back in for the capital appreciation. It could change any month.

SPX_2023-07-31_16-17-48.png
 
dpong said:
Oh. To anyone who stumbles across this thread I would like to stipulate:

This system does not predict anything. That S&P closed above its 20 month moving average does not predict that it will go higher. This system is not predictive. It is simply reactive.

If S&P closes June below the 20 month moving average, I will simply move back into cash. It costs me nothing to take this action, as in no commissions or fees. So with this system we will adapt to whatever is happening.

No predictions.
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How do you 'pick' your stocks?
 
Dpong
VTI was my fake pick at $209 a share on june first. It's $ 227.73 a share at todays close.
To bad I didn't actually buy some
 
The S&P 500 closed the month of August down 1.77%.

The price closed above the 20 month moving average, so my monthly retirement slow-trade system remains 100% invested in stock. We will check the price again at the end of September.


SPX_2023-08-31_16-06-02.png
 
Today was the last trading day for September, 2023.

SPX closed the month above the 20 month moving average. Thus we remain 100% invested in stock in our retirement accounts.

[We will check again at the end of October.]

SPX_2023-09-29_16-15-51.png
 
I hope you set some stop-losses. Things aren’t looking very good. Had the same feeling in the pit of my stomach fall of 2008.
 
S&P 500 closed the month of October 2023 down 2.20%. It dipped below the 20 month moving average during the month, but closed the month above the average.

Therefore, we will remain 100% in stocks in our retirement accounts, and check again at the end of November.

SPX_2023-10-31_16-11-30.png
 
The S&P 500 monthly chart ended the month of November "extra-spicy!!"

The index was up 8.92% on the month. We closed the month above the 20 month moving average, so we will stay 100% invested in stocks.

We will check the index again on the last trading day of December.

SPX_2023-11-30_16-05-38.png
 
The S&P 500 monthly chart closed the month of December, 2023 up 4.42%.

Because it closed above the 20 month moving average, we remain 100% invested in stock. We will check again at the end of January, 2024.


SPX_2023-12-29_16-45-59.png
 
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