Monthly Retirement Slow-Trade system

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I used actual large cap funds that are available in my retirement accounts. I could not use the actual S&P 500. So the following results are theoretical and not claimed to be my actual. However I did do approximately as well. ;)

The system bought S&P 500 at 4183.03.
The S&P 500 closed the year at 4769.82 with me still 100% long.
That's a difference of +586.79 which comes out to +14.02%.

By my calculation the S&P 500 closed the year up 23.78%. So at first glance it appears that S&P 500 buy and hold would have greatly outperformed my Monthly Retirement Slow Trade System. But that is an illusion.

The S&P 500 started 2023 having dropped a long way below the 20 month moving average. So a non-trivial amount of that 23.78% was just to get the S&P back above the 20 month moving average.

My slow trade system never was long below the 20 month moving average. So I didn't take on all that downside. My cash was secure and earning some interest while sitting in cash during the contretemps. I had sold in April 2022, and was sitting flat until re-entering in June 2023.

It is from June 2023 that I made my 14.02%.

[This system is super slow and boring, and I love it very much.]

SPX_2023-12-29_16-45-59.png
 
dpong said:
I used actual large cap funds that are available in my retirement accounts. I could not use the actual S&P 500. So the following results are theoretical and not claimed to be my actual. However I did do approximately as well. ;)

The system bought S&P 500 at 4183.03.
The S&P 500 closed the year at 4769.82 with me still 100% long.
That's a difference of +586.79 which comes out to +14.02%.

By my calculation the S&P 500 closed the year up 23.78%. So at first glance it appears that S&P 500 buy and hold would have greatly outperformed my Monthly Retirement Slow Trade System. But that is an illusion.

The S&P 500 started 2023 having dropped a long way below the 20 month moving average. So a non-trivial amount of that 23.78% was just to get the S&P back above the 20 month moving average.

My slow trade system never was long below the 20 month moving average. So I didn't take on all that downside. My cash was secure and earning some interest while sitting in cash during the contretemps. I had sold in April 2022, and was sitting flat until re-entering in June 2023.

It is from June 2023 that I made my 14.02%.

[This system is super slow and boring, and I love it very much.]

View attachment 11517
Click to expand...
Jordan Belfort, The Wolf of Wall Street, pretty much says an index fund is way to go, like the S&P 500 .

 
Viking said:
Jordan Belfort, The Wolf of Wall Street, pretty much says an index fund is way to go, like the S&P 500 .
Click to expand...
This is a revealing interview.

The question in my mind is "Will the US survive this period we're going through?"

What it comes down to is BRICS is the antitheses of NATO as an investment block.

NATO's MO is to conquer resources around the world by creating wars to overthrow governments. It's always been their MO.

BRICS's MO (afaict) is to develop resources FOR the people and their nation.

Therein lies WWIII in a nutshell. The survival of NATO vs the survival of BRICS.

You pays you money and you takes you chances....
 
January 2024 closed with a gain of 1.49%. [S&P 500 achieved a new all-time high in January.]

That continued from a November 2023 gain of 8.92% and December 2023 gain of 4.42%.

You can easily tell visually that the 20 month moving average has curved upwards with a positive slope.

Since January closed above the 20 month moving average we will stay 100% invested in stocks. We will next check the price at the end of February 2024. That will be February 29th as this is a leap year!

SPX_2024-01-31_16-03-51.png
 
Assuming that you might be in stocks long enough to generate a dividend and/or capital gain distribution, do you reinvest or send the divs/gains to cash?
 
MrLucky said:
Assuming that you might be in stocks long enough to generate a dividend and/or capital gain distribution, do you reinvest or send the divs/gains to cash?
Click to expand...
Good question, and I had not thought much about that.

In my retirement account I'm in fund JPMorgan US Equity R6. From my statement I can see that the dividends are reinvested into the fund. Again, I had previously not given it much thought.

However, as the situation is presumed positive so long as we are above the 20 month moving average, I would choose to reinvest in the stocks. So this is to my liking.
 
I thought you might peel off the cash and hold it separately. Then when the curve moves down and you go to cash it would not suffer that 15% loss on the downslope. In the next upturn you'd invest it at the bottom 15% of the next upslope.

Reinvesting on the positive is buying more shares at a higher price. Your DCA is rising.

I'm sure you can tweak your investment to "not" reinvest dividends. They should be able to move this money to a money market account within your 401k.

Advantages both ways.
 
The S&P 500 closed February 2024 with a gain of 5.17%. [That's up 4 months in a row!]

It closed above its 20 month moving average, so we remain 100% invested in stocks.

We will check again on the last trading day in March.

SPX_2024-02-29_16-08-48.png
 
The S&P 500 closed the month of April 2024 down 4.16%. We closed above the 20 month moving average, so we remain 100% invested in stocks. We'll check again at the end of May.

SPX_2024-04-30_16-11-02.png
 
A presentation regarding withdrawing a fixed percentage of your retirement funds each year, and what effect that has on your average withdrawal and your average ending balance after 25 years.

 
Yesterday the S&P 500 closed the month of May 2024 up 4.80%. It closed above its 20 month moving average so we remain 100% invested in stocks in our retirement accounts.

We will check again at the end of June.

SPX_2024-06-01_10-32-11.png
 
Friday was the last trading day of June. S&P 500 closed the month of June up 3.47%.

It closed above the 20 month moving average, so we are 100% invested in stocks. We will check the price and moving average again at the end of July.

[Last week at one point I calculated that our gains from the time we bought last June are 30.79%.]

SPX_2024-07-01_12-23-14.png
 
Today is the last trading day of the month of July 2024. The S&P 500 closed the month up 1.13%.

SPX closed above its 20 week moving average, so we remain 100% invested in stocks.

We will check again at the end of August trading.

SPX_2024-07-31_16-05-09.png
 
Today is the last trading day of August 2024.

After a modicum of drama, the S&P500 closed the month up 2.28%.

We're 100% invested in stocks. We'll check the close at the end of September.

SPX_2024-08-30_16-03-14.png
 
Gold monthly closed September with a new all time monthly closing high.

GOLD_2024-10-01_08-14-03.png
 
Wrong thread on the gold chart. Oh well. :unsure:
 
The S&P 500 closed the month of October 2024 with a loss of -0.99%.

The price closed well above the 20 month moving average, so we remain 100% invested in stocks. We will check again at the end of November.

[So far, we're having a great year!]

SPX_2024-10-31_16-01-36.png
 
The S&P 500 ended the month of November, 2024 with a gain of +5.73%.

It remains above its 20 month moving average, so we continue to be 100% invested.


SPX_2024-11-29_15-15-09.png
 
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