Real Estate and foreclosure thread

Welcome to the Precious Metals Bug Forums

Welcome to the PMBug forums - a watering hole for folks interested in gold, silver, precious metals, sound money, investing, market and economic news, central bank monetary policies, politics and more.

Why not register an account and join the discussions? When you register an account and log in, you may enjoy additional benefits including no Google ads, market data/charts, access to trade/barter with the community and much more. Registering an account is free - you have nothing to lose!

searcher said:
Agreed.

Doesn't matter what you're dealing with. Vehicles, art, jewelry, coins, etc.

But if it's in a building or on a property leased to someone (who doesn't own the bricks) and the actual property owner takes back legal possession of the property for back rent or any other reason, what happens to your stuff?

Will you actually get your stuff back? And are you responsible for the costs (storage costs, legal fees, etc.,) to get your stuff back?

Could become a bit of a conundrum depending on who you're dealing with.
Click to expand...

Oh I'm sure it would become a bit of a pain and cost some money. I did listen to the county attorney talk about a car that was involved in a drug case. Some guy called and complained because the City had kept a kids car for like 5 years. Basically the owners have to come forth and work with the City and the Sheriff to get their stuff back. Of course they knew nothing about this car.
 
The number of big office landlords defaulting on their loans is on the rise, fresh evidence that more developers believe that remote and hybrid work habits have permanently impaired the office market.

www.foxbusiness.com

Office landlord defaults are escalating as lenders brace for more distress

Brookfield Asset Management recently defaulted on a total of over $750 million in debt for a pair of 52-story towers in Los Angeles, according to a February securities filing.
www.foxbusiness.com www.foxbusiness.com
 
Still building like crazy in Raleigh NC. Meanwhile...


FpmG_WSWYAIiob2.jpg
 
finance.yahoo.com

The house price crash that could wreck your finances – and it's not in Britain

Prices are starting to fall. Mortgage arrears are starting to climb. Developers are going bust, and others are stopping work on homes they can no longer sell.
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com

Edit to add:

www.realtor.com

January 2023 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report

According to Realtor.com®’s January housing data, the number of homes for sale is continuing to grow compared to last year as time on market slows but home inventory is still below pre-pandemic levels.
www.realtor.com www.realtor.com
 
Last edited:
Aggregate-Value-1024x768.png


www.redfin.com

U.S. Homeowners Have Lost $2.3 Trillion in Value Since June Peak

The housing market was worth $45 trillion at the end of 2022, down 5% from the June record high—the largest June-to-December drop since 2008.
www.redfin.com www.redfin.com
 
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city house price index rise fell 0.5% in December, its sixth monthly decline.

Year-over-year appreciation was still up 4.6%, but has slowed down from a 6.8% annual increase in the previous month.

A broader measure of home prices, the national index, fell a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in December, but was up 5.8% over the past year.
...
Big picture: Home prices reflect the major slowdown the interest rate-sensitive housing sector went through at the end of last year.

And with mortgage rates back up, housing sales are poised to take a hit, meaning that home prices will likely continue this downward slide in the coming months.
...
Click to expand...

www.marketwatch.com

‘Mortgage financing remains a headwind for home prices’: Home-price growth slows in December, with San Francisco leading the way

The Case-Shiller 20-city home price index fell 0.5% in December, compared to the prior month.
www.marketwatch.com www.marketwatch.com
 

U.S. watchdog shutters mortgage outfit as high court case looms​

(Reuters) - The U.S. consumer financial watchdog agency on Monday said it had permanently barred California mortgage broker RMK Financial Corp. from the mortgage lending industry, accusing it of repeat violations against military personnel and their families.

The announcement came the same day the U.S. Supreme Court agreed to hear a case that the Biden administration has said threatens the very survival of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), which was created nearly 12 years ago after the global financial crisis but has faced repeated attacks in the courts.

More:

 
TRENTON, N.J. – In an effort to protect New Jersey homeowners, the state Assembly advanced legislation cracking down on a predatory real estate practice that targets cash-strapped residents. At least 15 other states have taken legal or legislative action against a Florida-based company, MV Realty, for misleading homeowners about the terms of their long-term listing contracts.

 
This morning Bloomberg reports that Wall Street's largest commercial real estate landlord, private equity giant Blackstone, has defaulted on a €531 million ($562 million) bond backed by a portfolio of offices and stores owned by Sponda Oy, a Finnish landlord it acquired in 2018.

While the PE firm had sought an extension from holders of the securitized notes to allow time to dispose of assets and repay the debt, the surge in market volatility triggered by the war in Ukraine and rising interest rates interrupted the sales process and bondholders voted against a further extension, the Bloomberg sources said.

And since the security has now matured and has not been repaid, loan servicer Mount Street has determined that an event of default has occurred, according to a statement Thursday. The loan will now be transferred to a special servicer.
...
And while Blackstone is understandably trying to minimize the news, the PE firm clearly continues to scramble to stabilize the bleeding in its massive real estate portfolio and on Wednesday it said that it had blocked investors from cashing out their investments at its $71 billion real estate income trust (BREIT), as the private equity firm continues to grapple with a flurry of redemption requests.

BREIT said it fulfilled redemption requests of $1.4 billion in February, which represents only 35% of the approximately $3.9 billion in total withdrawal requests for the month, the firm said in a letter to investors as Reuters first reported.
...
Click to expand...

Blackstone Defaults On $562MM CMBS As It Keeps Blocking Investor Withdrawals From $71BN REIT | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 

March 2023 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report​


Mar 30, 2023

  • The number of homes for sale increased by 59.9% compared to last year.
  • The total number of unsold homes, including homes that are under contract, increased by 9.3% compared to last year.
  • Home sellers were less active this March, with 20.1% fewer homes being listed for sale compared to last year.
  • The median price of homes for sale increased by 6.3% annually in March, lower than February’s growth rate.
  • Homes spent 54 days on the market, which is 18 days longer than last year but still shorter than before the pandemic.

According to Realtor.com®’s March housing data, the inventory of homes for sale continued to grow higher than last year but this pace of growth declined slightly and inventory remained constrained compared to pre-pandemic levels. Sellers were listing in lower numbers than previous years but those who listed their homes gradually adjusted to softer market conditions, as growth in the median list price continued to slow. Despite slowing listing price growth and increased price reductions, high interest rates continued to create an affordability challenge for buyers as fewer homes went under contract compared to the previous year.
...
Click to expand...

www.realtor.com

March 2023 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report

According to Realtor.com®’s March housing data, the inventory of homes for sale continued to grow higher than last year but this pace of growth declined slightly and inventory remained constrained compared to pre-pandemic levels.
www.realtor.com www.realtor.com

Fewer new listings, fewer contracts/buyers.
 
pmbug said:
www.realtor.com

March 2023 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report

According to Realtor.com®’s March housing data, the inventory of homes for sale continued to grow higher than last year but this pace of growth declined slightly and inventory remained constrained compared to pre-pandemic levels.
www.realtor.com www.realtor.com

Fewer new listings, fewer contracts/buyers.
Click to expand...

Its starting to look and feel like the market is just going to freeze up. Also, some seem to think that Fannie Mae/GSE's are funneling REPOs to the big buyers. Trying to flip them themselves or giving some to Blackrock/Zillow etc.

Got a nastygram from an agent today. It was probably the biggest difference of opinion that I've seen yet. Little does he know or care that he's breaking state law.
 
This one's a bit different. It's an eviction gone wrong story out of Philly.

Linky stuff:

A landlord-tenant officer shot a woman in the head during an eviction process on Wednesday morning in Philadelphia's Fairmount neighborhood, officials said.

According to law enforcement officials, the incident occurred just after 9 a.m., when the rent server – an employee of the landlord tenant office – was serving eviction paperwork at the Girard Court Apartments along the 2100 block of N. College Avenue.

The landlord tenant office is a private entity that carries out court orders. The officer is not a servant of the City's municipal court. A spokesperson for the court explained that a landlord-tenant officer is instead paid by a landlord.

www.nbcphiladelphia.com

Landlord-Tenant Officer Shoots Woman in the Head During Eviction

A Philadelphia landlord-tenant officer shot a woman once in the head on Wednesday morning during an eviction, according to police.
www.nbcphiladelphia.com www.nbcphiladelphia.com

________________________________________

Where I live evictions are carried out by uniformed constables and uniformed cops. And in all of the cases I've heard about, the peeps are given at least one chance to catch up (maybe more depending on circumstances), a good bit of time to get things together and split, and are long gone before the required date.
 
I had a rental house back in the day. Went good for a few years, then got some no payers in. Gave them chance after chance to pay what they owed, but no go. Finally became apparent they just were not gonna pay. House was a little 800 sf. millhouse with 2 window unit air conditioners. Caught them out of the house one morning and pulled both ac units. They didn't last long in Alabama in August, they were gone by that afternoon.
 
searcher said:
www.reuters.com

Blackstone REIT limits investor redemptions again in March

Blackstone Inc said on Monday it had again blocked withdrawals from its $70 billion real estate income trust in March as the private equity firm faced a flurry of redemption requests.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
Click to expand...
.

Isn't Blackstone heavily invested in commercial real estate??? Shit meet fan........

What Blows Up Next? Commercial Real Estate | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

.
 
Blackstone is all over Real Estate. They mostly charge management fees to manage portfolios like this one. I went and looked up BREIT fund.

So it's not really a commercial focused fund but does have a lot of industrial.

1680611299608.png
 
Another walk and talk with Michael.

Real Estate Investors Starting To Get FORECLOSED ON​

Apr 15, 2023


21:59

A record $151.8 billion in U.S. mortgages backed by rental apartment buildings are set to expire this year, and $940.1 billion are set to expire over the next five years. This combined with multiple recent defaults on large commercial real estate, things are starting to get real.
 
...
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose to 45 in April, a one-point gain. Anything below 50 is considered negative.

The reading is the highest since September. The index stood at 77 in April 2022.

Builders in the report cited a lack of listings on the resale market, which gave them an unusually strong edge. New listings of existing homes have fallen about 25% compared with a year ago.
...
Builders said one-third of housing inventory is new construction, compared with historical norms of around 10%. Concerns had grown that builders might have more trouble with construction loans after recent regional bank failures.

But the bevy of new construction suggests that is not the case.

"While AD&C loan conditions are tight, there is not significant evidence thus far that pressure on the regional bank system has made this lending environment for builders and land developers worse," said Robert Dietz, NAHB's chief economist.
...
Click to expand...

www.cnbc.com

Homebuilder sentiment rises in April, as builders grab near record share of the market

Homebuilder sentiment rose in April, as builders gained an edge from a lack of supply on the resale market.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
So we may never see a decent number of REO's come on the market. The reason is Time. It is taking Longer and Longer for the process to complete.

Average time to foreclose increases annually

U.S. properties foreclosed in the first quarter of 2021 had been in the foreclosure process an average of 930 days, an 8% increase from the previous quarter and up 38% from a year ago.

States with the longest average time to foreclose in Q4 2020 were Hawaii (2,491 days); New York (1,529 days); Pennsylvania (1,502 days); Louisiana (1,476 days); and Florida (1,378 days).
 
Viking said:
So stop making CC payments before you apply for a mortgage.
Click to expand...

Yea, its idiotic stuff like this that will have all kinds of weird undesired outcomes. Need a mortgage, tank your credit now. I mean, I guess expect a lot of unpaid credit cards in the near future.
 
Another walk & talk.

HIGH Insurance CRUSHING DREAMS Of Home Ownership​

May 7, 2023


20:08

Besides your mortgage payment, toda your homeowners insurance premium along with property taxes is likely going to be your LARGEST monthly expense related to housing and unfortunately, these 2 expenses of getting ridiculous over the last few years and most new home buyers cannot afford it.
 
Not news. Just a neat story with a few pics and a short vid.

Trainee realtor sold his first home in ’68. Now he’s selling it again for 100 times more​

Story by Talker News • Yesterday 9:23 AM

A realtor who made his first sale in 1968 is selling the same house again before he retires – for 100 times the original price.

Andrew Morris was aged 18 when he helped Michael and June Stafford buy their first home in Hereford, UK.

The couple paid £6,000 ($7,500 USD) for the four-bedroom detached Victorian property in the fashionable Broomy Hill area of the city.

More:

 
Voodoo said:
Man, Jermoe Powell is NOT going to be happy,. Certainly doesn't look like inflation is softening here Jerome. In Fact, that looks like it just started going vertical.
Click to expand...
Stuff you need stuff you don't.
 
Still location dependent. Just outside of DC rents were about 3200 3 years ago. Now if your looking to get close to the area it's over 4k. Housing prices just keep going up as well and any quality house gets multiple offers over ask. Of course they are in somewhat of a bubble and insulated from the rest of society.
 
Another walk & talk.

Home Sellers FINALLY GIVING IN and SELLING FOR LESS​

May 28, 2023


23:59

Home sellers are starting to give in. According to Redfin Home sellers gave concessions to buyers in 42.9% of U.S. home sales during the three months ending April 30, up from 25.5% a year earlier. That’s just shy of a 45.6% record high hit in February. This is yet another sign, the housing market is starting to swing the other direction.
 
I've said for awhile that the retail foreclosure wave will be most seen in AUTOS this go round. Hence, this recent video with a significant increase in hells Fargo and Capital One car repos.



However, looking at this graph from a recent ZH article.

Look at this HUuuge Gap potential coming decline in home prices (far right black line). However, I think the dollar value dies before we ever really see that kind of decline.
 

Attachments

  • Housing Decline Forecast.jpg
    Housing Decline Forecast.jpg
    108.6 KB · Views: 3
I was just listening to the radio today from the larger city local Sunday show. They sell some add time to a home show group. Basically just 2 Realtors talking about the market.

I found their conversation a bit interesting. A guy who talked a little more about the market statistics but the lady was more interesting to me. You can tell she is starting to feel a little stressed. Not enough to consider this bad or leaving but on the way. She throws out a couple bad advice doozies where they are just talking their book. Who cares about the interest rate? You are just gonna move again soon or you can just refi.

This is where people get stuck in Recency Bias. Sure, refi's were great as interest rates kept on a downward slope. But on the upside Refi's will be idiotic/non-exsistent.

Another interesting part of the states were sales had declined from over 6,000 during Covid YTD to like 4600 this year. They had something around 2500 homes on the market but like 56% of that was NEW construction. They also noted that new Construction was only like 23% of the Pending Sales. So this points me to the higher end slowing down (makes sense as higher rates affect them more).
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom