Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)

[pmbug]

Update (see post #115 for last month):

• LBMA - As at end February 2025, ... There were also 22,462 tonnes of silver (a 4.5% decrease on previous month)... ETF report for 7 March claims 551.648 mtoz vaulted in London. That leaves a total of ~170.536 mtoz of silver in the London vaults not owned by ETFs. This compares to 210.08 mtoz reported at the end of January.
• COMEX - As of March 6, 420.277 mtoz registered + eligible - 103.17 mtoz owned by SLV = 317.107 mtoz not owned by SLV. This compares to ~256.191 mtoz reported at the end of January.
• SFE/SGE - As of March 6 (SFE) and February 28 (SGE), 2,826,309 kg or ~90.87 mtoz. This compares to 86.12 mtoz reported at the end of January.

The west has roughly 487.643 mtoz vaulted at LBMA + COMEX not owned by ETFs. Total global including China is ~578.513 mtoz ( 26.122 mtoz more than at end of last month).

The LBMA total vaulted supply is down ~1,066 tonnes (~34.3 mtoz) from end of January. ETFs lost ~6.343 mtoz.

The COMEX is up ~60.916 mtoz from end of January. SLV is about the same for the New York vault.

This month's report had some big changes, but it was less than last month (and less than what I was expecting). My X spirit brother Solve Nettug speculates that the LBMA is fudging their numbers:

...
And let me be clear: I believe they are cheating with the numbers. Just like they did in 2021 under the “failed silver-squeeze movement” when they overreported their vaults with 3000 metric tons. That was of course not an error, but something anyone would discover before reporting their numbers:


I believe it is the same thing they are doing again, just concealing it a bit more this time. For gold, how could such a small decline (0.7% in February and 1.7% in January) lead to delivery time jumping from 2-3 days to 4-8 weeks? They even write in now “gold stocks in London’s commercial vaults in fact increased - in contrast with the trend seen last month.”

Comex’ silver inventories increased by 1.547 metric tons in February. So, if we should believe in LBMA’s numbers this would mean that Comex+LBMA increased with 481 metric tons in February.

I seldom say I believe people are cheating. This time i do!

2) Negative “free flow”?
But let us use their numbers, combined with the ETF numbers. LBMA’s inventory is theoretically tied to SLV and other ETFs (72% in December). Silver held in SLV shrank 244 m.tons in February, but we saw WisdomTree’s and Blackrock’s ETFs increase, so my estimate is that the total silver held in the ETFs actually increased by 100-200 m.tons in February. That would leave a far bigger share of LBMA’s total inventory theoretically tied to ETF’s. I believe @InProved_Metals will present the exact numbers soon.

And also; just because someone stores their silver in LBMA’s vaults does not mean that they want to sell at these prices. I believe the “free float” is already negative, and I believe this is the reason why they cover up their numbers.
...

Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
COMEX: https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls
SGE/SFE:

LBMA ETFs: