Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)

[pmbug]

Update (see post #115 for last month):

• LBMA - As at end February 2025, ... There were also 22,462 tonnes of silver (a 4.5% decrease on previous month)... ETF report for 7 March claims 551.648 mtoz vaulted in London. That leaves a total of ~170.536 mtoz of silver in the London vaults not owned by ETFs. This compares to 210.08 mtoz reported at the end of January.
• COMEX - As of March 6, 420.277 mtoz registered + eligible - 103.17 mtoz owned by SLV = 317.107 mtoz not owned by SLV. This compares to ~256.191 mtoz reported at the end of January.
• SFE/SGE - As of March 6 (SFE) and February 28 (SGE), 2,826,309 kg or ~90.87 mtoz. This compares to 86.12 mtoz reported at the end of January.

The west has roughly 487.643 mtoz vaulted at LBMA + COMEX not owned by ETFs. Total global including China is ~578.513 mtoz ( 26.122 mtoz more than at end of last month).

The LBMA total vaulted supply is down ~1,066 tonnes (~34.3 mtoz) from end of January. ETFs lost ~6.343 mtoz.

The COMEX is up ~60.916 mtoz from end of January. SLV is about the same for the New York vault.

This month's report had some big changes, but it was less than last month (and less than what I was expecting). My X spirit brother Solve Nettug speculates that the LBMA is fudging their numbers:

...
And let me be clear: I believe they are cheating with the numbers. Just like they did in 2021 under the “failed silver-squeeze movement” when they overreported their vaults with 3000 metric tons. That was of course not an error, but something anyone would discover before reporting their numbers:


I believe it is the same thing they are doing again, just concealing it a bit more this time. For gold, how could such a small decline (0.7% in February and 1.7% in January) lead to delivery time jumping from 2-3 days to 4-8 weeks? They even write in now “gold stocks in London’s commercial vaults in fact increased - in contrast with the trend seen last month.”

Comex’ silver inventories increased by 1.547 metric tons in February. So, if we should believe in LBMA’s numbers this would mean that Comex+LBMA increased with 481 metric tons in February.

I seldom say I believe people are cheating. This time i do!

2) Negative “free flow”?
But let us use their numbers, combined with the ETF numbers. LBMA’s inventory is theoretically tied to SLV and other ETFs (72% in December). Silver held in SLV shrank 244 m.tons in February, but we saw WisdomTree’s and Blackrock’s ETFs increase, so my estimate is that the total silver held in the ETFs actually increased by 100-200 m.tons in February. That would leave a far bigger share of LBMA’s total inventory theoretically tied to ETF’s. I believe @InProved_Metals will present the exact numbers soon.

And also; just because someone stores their silver in LBMA’s vaults does not mean that they want to sell at these prices. I believe the “free float” is already negative, and I believe this is the reason why they cover up their numbers.
...

Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
COMEX: https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls
SGE/SFE:

LBMA ETFs:

 

[pmbug]

COMEX import numbers for the month of March so far:





LBMA silver report really doesn't look very credible given what COMEX is devouring.

 

[Voodoo]

I suspect they are all looting the ETF's now. SLV and PSLV would be highly suspect to have metal flying out the back door.

 

[pmbug]

1,088 metric tonnes / 9 working days = 120.88 metric tonnes/day * 21 working days in March = 2,538.66 tonnes projected for March. Where is the metal coming from? At the end of February, LBMA's reported inventory showed ~5,287 tonnes of available free float and I strongly suspect their numbers were not truthful - they likely have much less than that.

LBMA's free float for silver getting squeezed from both ends (redemptions exported to COMEX and remaining inventory allocated to SLV). Current market conditions will see London drained of free float. What will the price of silver do when the LBMA is T+infinity on deliveries?

 

[pmbug]

1,142 metric tonnes / 10 working days = 114.2 metric tonnes/day * 21 working days in March = 2,398.2 tonnes projected for March.

 

[Voodoo]

I think you could answer that question by comparing the rates of inflow between Gold and Silver. There should be plenty of Gold physical around to bring it in if someone wants to badly enough.

 

[pmbug]

COMEX reported adding ~533 metric tons of silver to the registered + eligible vaults (inflow, not net) last week (ie. in one week). Supposedly, roughly half of COMEX inflows were coming from London per reports in Jan/Feb. I wasn't tracking the inflow since the start of the month, but several folks have been tracking the net and it's been pretty consistent all month, so I think we can safely estimate/extrapolate a total inflow of at least 2,000 metric tons for the month of March (at least half of which, if not more, should be coming from London).

SLV reported adding 425 metric tons of silver in one day. SLV's London vaults are currently reporting a net increase of 622 metric tons since the start of the month. Presumably, 100% of their inflows are ledger changes in LBMA vaults - all of SLV's inflow should be coming from London.

At the beginning of the month, the LBMA's vault report less known ETF holdings showed roughly 5,287 metric tons of silver "free float". A number which doesn't (IMO) make sense in context with COMEX inflows over the previous two months (I suspect it's less in reality). But even if we take their numbers as valid, their free float looks to be taking a serious hit this month.

 

[pmbug]

The Swap Dealers are net short (CME shorts - CME longs) 223M oz. of silver

BATTLE OF THE TITANS!!!

You claim this 223M oz. #SILVER short position is covered in London on the London silver exchange. However:

1) It appears that there may only be a true Free Float of as little as a few 10s of millions of oz. of silver available from London vaults - the rest tightly held by ETFs and private investors;

2) High and rising silver lease rates tell us that there is an insufficient replenishment of silver stocks to London vaults to meet current demand for delivery;

3) LBMA data indicate that there is an open interest of some 5B oz. of physical silver in London in the spot/forward market. The London silver market is thus insolvent and unable to hedge anything.

Via David Jesen’s Substack comments section

Per the LBMA's last report, they had roughly 170 million troy ounces of silver free float (silver not owned by ETFs) in the vault. Based upon the flow of metal received by COMEX over the last few months, I'm not sure I believe the LBMA's last report. It's likely less than 170 million, but even if we accept their number as valid, it's still less than 223 million.

 

[pmbug]

Last week, the silver vault on SGE increased by 52680 kg, and the vault of this week is 1,731,225 kg. The silver physical settlement has increased by about 10% year-on-year compared to last year. There is no big change of gold data. CN continues to speed up the import of silver.