Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)

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Update (see post #68 for last month):
  • LBMA - As at end August 2024, ... There were also 26,245 tonnes of silver (a 1.4% decrease on previous month)... SLV report for 6 September claims 363.01 mtoz vaulted in London. That leaves a total of ~480.78 mtoz of silver in the London vaults not owned by ETFs. This compares to 493.22 mtoz reported at the end of July.
  • COMEX - As of September 5, 306.01 mtoz registered + eligible - 103.17 mtoz owned by SLV = 202.84 mtoz not owned by ETFs. This compares to ~205.7 mtoz reported at the end of July.
  • SFE/SGE - As of September 6 (SFE) and August 30 (SGE), 2,512,500 kg or 80.78 mtoz. This compares to 84.75 mtoz reported at the end of July.

The west has roughly 683.62 mtoz vaulted at LBMA + COMEX not owned by SLV. Total global including China is ~764.4 mtoz (19.27 mtoz less than at end of last month).

The LBMA total vaulted supply is down ~373 tonnes (~12 mtoz) from end of July. SLV gained 0.45 mtoz.

The COMEX is up 2.3 mtoz from end of July. SLV is about the same for the New York vault.

Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
SLV: https://emea-markets.jpmorgan.com/metalicsWebAppJanus/publicUnauthenticated/BONY_SLV.pdf
COMEX:
harveyorganblog.com

SEPT 5/GOLD CLOSED UP $18.00 TO $2512.90//SILVER WAS UP 55 CENTS TO $28.73//PLATINUM WAS UP $17.95 TO $928.10/PALLAIDUM WAS UP $1.25 TO $943.50//RUSSIA ANNOUNCES ITS ITS GOING TO BUY MORE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD//ANOTHER GERMAN STABBING//VOLKSWAGEN MAY HA

WILLL FINALIZE LATER TODAY GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $18.00 TO $2512.90 SILVER PRICE UP $.55 TO $28.73 Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2514.55 Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $28.77 Friday is OTC/London LBMA options exp…
harveyorganblog.com harveyorganblog.com
(Michael #silversqueeze doesn't appear to have posted any updates on X/Twitter since August 5)
SGE/SFE:
 
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...
Click to expand...

www.pcmag.com

Samsung to Mass-Produce Solid-State Batteries for 'Super Premium' EVs by 2027

Multiple automakers have been testing product samples, bringing them closer to hitting the market. But like most new technologies, they won't be cheap.
www.pcmag.com www.pcmag.com
 
There is a lot of chatter on X/Twitter about an announcemt from Russia wherein they say they will be diversifying their reserves to include more precious metals including silver and platinum in addition to gold. Most seem to be hyping the news as if they will be a significant international buyer like India or China, but I read a comment that claimed the Russian fine print indicates they will only be buying/sourcing from domestic production. If that's true, I don't think it's going to have any appreciable impact on global silver markets supply/demand.
 
Update (see post #81 for last month):
  • LBMA - As at end September 2024, ... There were also 26,212 tonnes of silver (a 0.1% decrease on previous month)... SLV report for 8 October claims 368.25 mtoz vaulted in London. That leaves a total of ~474.48 mtoz of silver in the London vaults not owned by ETFs. This compares to 480.78 mtoz reported at the end of August.
  • COMEX - As of October 7, 305.873 mtoz registered + eligible - 103.17 mtoz owned by SLV = 202.70 mtoz not owned by ETFs. This compares to ~202.84 mtoz reported at the end of August.
  • SFE/SGE - As of October 8 (SFE) and September 30 (SGE), 2,536,031 kg or 81.53 mtoz. This compares to 80.78 mtoz reported at the end of August.

The west has roughly 677.18 mtoz vaulted at LBMA + COMEX not owned by SLV. Total global including China is ~758.71 mtoz (5.69 mtoz less than at end of last month).

The LBMA total vaulted supply is down ~33 tonnes (~1 mtoz) from end of August. SLV gained 5.24 mtoz.

The COMEX is down 0.14 mtoz from end of August. SLV is about the same for the New York vault.

Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
SLV: https://emea-markets.jpmorgan.com/metalicsWebAppJanus/publicUnauthenticated/BONY_SLV.pdf
COMEX:
harveyorganblog.com

OCT 7/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $1.85 TO $2646.35//SILVER WAS DOWN 39 CENTS TO $31.77//PLATINUM WAS DOWN $14.00 TO $978.40 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS UP $20.15 TO $1028.65//ALASDAIR MACLEOD ON SILVER FUNDAMENTALS IS A GREAT READ//ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH AND ISRAEL VS HA

GOLD PRICE CLOSED DOWN $1.85 TO $2646.35 SILVER PRICE DOWN $0.39 TO $31.77 Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2642.80 Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $31.70 Bitcoin morning price:$62,854 UP 250 DOLLARS. Bitcoin: afternoon …
harveyorganblog.com harveyorganblog.com
SGE/SFE:
 
I don't have time today, but I need to update my monthly silver vault posts to include more ETF analysis on the LBMA vault numbers. I found this 3+ year old report from Ronan Manly with some source links:

www.bullionstar.com

85% of Silver in London Already Held by ETFs

In addition to SLV, another 13 ETFs store silver in LBMA vaults, holding 85% of all the silver in London.
www.bullionstar.com www.bullionstar.com
 
This post may contain affiliate links for which PM Bug gold and silver discussion forum may be compensated.
The global silver market is on pace to record a physical deficit in 2024 for the fourth consecutive year, with the growth of demand from industry the main driver, according to the latest Interim Silver Market Review from the Silver Institute released Tuesday evening.

“Record industrial demand and a recovery in jewelry and silverware will lift demand to 1.21 billion ounces in 2024, while mine supply will rise by just 1%,” they said. “Exchange-traded products are on track for their first annual inflows in three years ...
...
Global demand for silver is projected to rise by 1% year-over-year to 1.21 billion ounces in 2024, which would make this year the second-highest for demand since Metals Focus began its series in 2010. “Most of silver’s demand segments are expected to strengthen this year, led by industrial applications,” the authors wrote. “This leaves physical investment as the only key demand component to post a meaningful decline.”
...
Physical investment, by contrast, is forecast to fall by 15% to a four-year low of 208 million ounces in 2024. “Losses have been concentrating in the US where coin and bar sales are on track for a 40% decline to its lowest level since 2019,” they wrote. “This reflects an absence of new crises during 2024-to-date, which has affected precious metal retail investment across the board.”
...
Click to expand...

More:
www.kitco.com

Industrial demand for silver to set new record high in 2024 as market sees fourth straight annual supply deficit – Silver Institute

The Kitco News Team brings you the latest news, videos, analysis and opinions regarding Precious Metals, Crypto, Mining, World Markets and Global Economy.
www.kitco.com www.kitco.com

40% decline in retail bar and coin sales? That seems extreme...
 
"Losses have been concentrating in the US..."
How do they know it? Do they know investment figures in China?
 
I have no idea how accurate this is:

PHYSICAL SILVER DELIVERY FROM LBMA UP 73% IN NOVEMBER

I have gone throught the numbers from
@Thedudesetx00
and the November numbers are going to blow your hat off!

The physical #silver delivery from LBMA (London bullion market) in October was massive: 20,497 contracts, which equals 3,192 metric tons of silver. That is 149% of the monthly world production.

However, the physical delivery in November will be far more! The first 10 trading days of November it has been taken delivery of 15,385 contracts. In average that is 73% more than daily average in October.

This equals 2.396 metric tons, which is 9% of the world’s annual silver production in only 10 trading days!

This is not paper numbers like Comex; this is physical delivery!

Thank you Dude (@Thedudesetx00) for providing daily numbers, and happy weekend to all silver friends out there 😊
Click to expand...
It does remind me that I need to crunch the October vault numbers though...
 
$50 by the summer. Once.it breaks $35 it will jump like BTC.
 
Voodoo said:
Meanwhile the paper price went down because.... blah excuses. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...
I was thinking the same.
Physical demand explodes while paper sells off, price down.
When will the physical market finally determine the price!!!


pmbug said:
I have no idea how accurate this is:
Click to expand...

Either China or India.
Russia building their silver reserves using their own production, they don't need to import it.
imo
 
Update (see post #85 for last month):
  • LBMA - As at end October 2024, ... There were also 26,629 tonnes of silver (a 1.3% increase on previous month)... SLV report for 8 October claims 374.396 mtoz vaulted in London. That leaves a total of ~481.746 mtoz of silver in the London vaults not owned by ETFs. This compares to 474.48 mtoz reported at the end of September.
  • COMEX - As of November 7, 311.809 mtoz registered + eligible - 103.17 mtoz owned by SLV = 208.64 mtoz not owned by ETFs. This compares to ~202.70 mtoz reported at the end of September.
  • SFE/SGE - As of November 7 (SFE) and November 1 (SGE), 2,729,545 kg or 87.75 mtoz. This compares to 81.53 mtoz reported at the end of September.

The west has roughly 690.386 mtoz vaulted at LBMA + COMEX not owned by SLV. Total global including China is ~778.136 mtoz (19.426 mtoz more than at end of last month).

The LBMA total vaulted supply is up ~417 tonnes (~13.4 mtoz) from end of September. SLV gained 8.14 mtoz.

The COMEX is up 5.94 mtoz from end of September. SLV is about the same for the New York vault.

Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
SLV: https://emea-markets.jpmorgan.com/metalicsWebAppJanus/publicUnauthenticated/BONY_SLV.pdf
COMEX:
harveyorganblog.com

NOV 7/GOLD CLOSED UP $30.50 TO $2698.20//SILVER CLOSED UP $0.11 TO $31.76//PLATINUM WAS UP $3.95 TO $993.75 BUT PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $18.15 TO $1024.15//FED LOWERS INTEREST RATE BY .25%//IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES TO READ ON THE MUST LIST: PEPE ESCOBAR “T

Says it all SPECIAL thanks to Robert H for sending this to us: GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $30.50 TO $2698.70 SILVER PRICE UP $0.11 TO $31.76 Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2705.70 Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $32.00 Bitco…
harveyorganblog.com harveyorganblog.com
SGE/SFE:
 
Last edited:
^^ Just fixed a couple of mistakes. Numbers should be correct now.
 
47cfc5_544ab24053284a038ea5d67d4f12500d~mv2.webp


Source:
www.miningvisuals.com

Solar Power: A Key to Future Energy and Silver Demand

In a recent tweet, Elon Musk declared that solar power will dominate future power generation. While bold, his statement aligns with trends i
www.miningvisuals.com www.miningvisuals.com
 
They keep saying silver demand from India is either industrial or jewellery.
Look at silver backed exchange traded products!

 
I have mixed emotions. The day silver goes to the Moon (eg: 1:16 ratio) is the end of the market as we know it.

The dollar will be gone. Hypertrading mega-Paper tons per day will have vanished.

Since I am 50-50, this will be fine with me as far as monetary safety. But a busted society?
 
^^ Yeah, holding stacks of shiny will be great financially if you can survive the societal chaos that will likely ensue with breakdowns in markets. But people have survived hyperinflation / currency destruction before. We'll do it again.
 
Update (see post #97 for last month):
  • LBMA - As at end November 2024, ... There were also 26,458 tonnes of silver (a 0.6% decrease on previous month)... SLV report for 6 December claims 370.504 mtoz vaulted in London. That leaves a total of ~480.140 mtoz of silver in the London vaults not owned by SLV. This compares to 481.746 mtoz reported at the end of October.
  • COMEX - As of December 5, 306.577 mtoz registered + eligible - 103.17 mtoz owned by SLV = 203.41 mtoz not owned by SLV. This compares to ~208.64 mtoz reported at the end of October.
  • SFE/SGE - As of December 6 (SFE) and November 29 (SGE), 2,736,170 kg or 87.97 mtoz. This compares to 87.75 mtoz reported at the end of October.

The west has roughly 683.55 mtoz vaulted at LBMA + COMEX not owned by SLV. Total global including China is ~771.52 mtoz (6.62 mtoz less than at end of last month).

The LBMA total vaulted supply is down ~171 tonnes (~5.5 mtoz) from end of October. SLV lost ~3.9 mtoz.

The COMEX is down 5.23 mtoz from end of October. SLV is about the same for the New York vault.

Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
SLV: https://emea-markets.jpmorgan.com/metalicsWebAppJanus/publicUnauthenticated/BONY_SLV.pdf
COMEX:
harveyorganblog.com

DEC 5/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $26.80 TO $2625.15//SILVER CLOSED DOWN ONLY 23 CENTS TO $31.05//PLATINUM WAS DOWN $8.90 TO $935.45 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $17.00 TO $965.40 //GOLD COMMENTARY TONIGHT FROM ALASDAIR MACLEOD//GERMANY VOLKSWAGEN IN TROUBLE AS THE

GOLD PRICE CLOSED DOWN $21,80 TO $2625.15 SILVER PRICE DOWN $0.23 TO $31.05 Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2650.70 Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $31.30 Bitcoin morning price:$103,120 UP 4344 DOLLARS. Bitcoin: afterno…
harveyorganblog.com harveyorganblog.com
SGE/SFE:
 
Unca Walt said:
I have mixed emotions. The day silver goes to the Moon (eg: 1:16 ratio) is the end of the market as we know it.

The dollar will be gone. Hypertrading mega-Paper tons per day will have vanished.

Since I am 50-50, this will be fine with me as far as monetary safety. But a busted society?
Click to expand...
Maybe the $ won't be gone, it will just function as any weak currency. Think of the Italian lira or the Mexican peso.
The end of global monetary hegemony doesn't imply a busted society.

If the $ will be gone it won't be because of the silver price but because of the US debt paired with the loss of US political hegemony.
imo
 
I went back to post #26 (posted end of January 2024) and compared the vault numbers from end of December 2023 to the current totals. I'm seeing:

COMEX - 165 mtoz Jan vs 203.41 current (up 38.41)

LBMA - 543.1 mtoz Jan vs 480.14 current (down 62.96)

China - 28.84 mtoz Jan vs 87.75 current (up 58.91)

Overall, vault numbers are up 34.36 mtoz. This doesn't square with reports claiming a huge production deficit to industrial demand. I wonder where the disconnect is.
 
Peter89 said:
Maybe the $ won't be gone, it will just function as any weak currency. Think of the Italian lira or the Mexican peso.
The end of global monetary hegemony doesn't imply a busted society.

If the $ will be gone it won't be because of the silver price but because of the US debt paired with the loss of US political hegemony.
imo
Click to expand...
Where's Casey Jones when I wanna make a choo-choo train analogy?!

This is what I see: USA $$ as a weak currency most ricky-tick infers the society in following years will be busted. This will happen as problems add to the daily life of every US citizen in every area.

And like CJ's freight train starting up, the driving engine and the first car start moving, but there is a small gap in time before the second car gets moving. We have a long train with the USA. The engine of chaos can be going full speed, and the cars in the back have not yet moved.

I see "normality" (eg: American life as we know it and have lived it so far) disappearing with the dollar. The negative impacts worldwide are going to be historic: For the first time, a currency that has been sought and accepted all over the earth will have been hollowed out to nothing. EVERYONE on earth, not just Americans, but absolutely everyone will be impacted.

My Unca Irv flew a P-51 in WWII. It cost $50,000. Today's F-35's cost $40,000 to fly for ONE HOUR. <-- Just for a quick feel of the enormous wealth wasted by our gov't.

The freakin' Fighting Lady cost $70MM. You could build an AIRCRAFT CARRIER for less than the cost of ONE F-22 Raptor.

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"Currently, unit costs for the Lockheed Martin F-35 ranges from about $80 million to $100 million per copy, depending on the variant, while the flyaway cost of a F-15EX is about $90 million. Conversely, Kendall originally estimated unit prices for NGAD would be about $300 million per copy." Sep 20, 2024
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That shit above cannot go on using pesos or pengoes or bolivars or... exploded US dollars. That means drastic, world-wide societal change.
 
Unca Walt said:
The freakin' Fighting Lady cost $70MM. You could build an AIRCRAFT CARRIER for less than the cost of ONE F-22 Raptor.
Click to expand...
UW... usually in order to show inflation people use as examples butter and bread... but SOME PEOPLE use... WAR PLANES!
:D
 
Did we adjust for inflation folks, the first Lexington was built in 1920's, started out as a battle cruiser.
 
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