#silversqueeze

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HOW are COMEX 1,000 oz bars selling with 45 Cent premiums GREATER than most of that retail 1, 5, 10 or even a 100 oz bar? That does not make sense.
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This is what all these talking heads are trying to tell everyone. The 1000 oz bars (good delivery spec) are in short supply. The exchanges are getting stressed.
 
I mean that really screams that the Far East is draining physical metal. I'm surprised refiners aren't trying to scoop up all this retail stuff to ship out some 1,000 bars. I suppose that costs too much to re-melt, for now.

A very odd market that is backwards. I wonder if they are getting ready for the rug pull.
 
I did and no I can't.
Thought so.
Nobody understands what he says but everybody believes that what he says makes sense because if it does we are going to make money.


Apparently this Bob just did an interview on Youtube with Arcadia. He talks about this exactly about 18 mins into the video.


I listened only to the 18 min. mark. He talks about silver being shipped from London to NY in order to be delivered to the comex longs.
He phantasises about the silver arriving too late in NY.

First, this has nothing to do with EFP. Actually this is exactly what EFP is designed to avoid.
EFP is this: you are long at the comex, comes expiration day, you ask for delivery. Instead of giving you metal they give you a EFP note that allows you to get the metal in London.
Through EFP the comex doesn't deliver.
Through EFP there is no need to get metal shipped from London to NY.

Based on what he says there is the theory that EFP premiums are high because silver needs to be shipped to NY.
There is no silver being shipped to NY.
There is no silver being shipped to NY precisely because of the EFP.
He gets people all excited when they hear him talking about EFP but at the end nobody knows what EFP is.


EFP premiums? There is no market, no exchange for EFP. It's a private transaction. You have your EFP note, you deal with some London's bullion bank manager.
None of his followers knows yet where to look at for those EFP premium rates he keeps talking about.


Furthermore, the idea itself of silver being shipped from London to NY so that the comex can deliver...
The comex doesn't deliver. The whole comex complex is designed in order to not deliver, to not be an exchange for physical gold and silver.

And even when it does, don't forget that the comex has warehouses all around the world, in the major trading hubs - Dubai, Singapore, London, HK etc.
You know Kinesis, so you know the Allocated Bullion Exchange. The ABX has warehouses in the 7 major trading hubs. So does the comex.

If the holder of comex futures asks for delivery and he wants the metal delivered in Africa, the metal gets delivered in Dubai, not in NY.
If the holder of comex futures is a company located in Asia, the metal will be delivered in Singapore or Hong Kong, not in NY.
 
My take in all this jargon... physical metal is getting hard to find. And the bankers are starting to distrust each other. They know how much BS they've all been pulling and might be seeing some chairs getting yanked off the floor.

I think what they are really talking about is the regular Contango or Backwardation. Backwardation being the Spot prices Higher than the futures which is the non-typical situation and indicative of physical shortages. Contango is normal but as they describe it should not be that large in the near term. It seems like they are describing the difference in price between the nearest Comex Future price and the spot. This should be relatively small because the Contango should reflect the costs of storing the metal for that period of time.

Well when discussing this near future contract that is only like 1 month or less out. So storage costs or interest rates won't matter much. BUT if they know NOT to short any future contract or that the physical metal is perhaps rehypothecated then you'd be an idiot to try and make this small amount of money if there is a decent chance the game blows up.
 
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Are you suggesting that increasing the delivery (imported) price would mess up their leverage schemes?
Tariffs wouldn't mess up anything because their leverage schemes are not affected by how much bullion they have.
They can raise the leverage ratio from 1:100 to 1:360 to 1:34k, they don't care, there is no oversight and they are too big to fail.

The USA is not a silver exporting country. That means that in the major trading hubs for physical e.g. Dubai, Singapore, Zurich, London etc. nobody cares about USA raising import tariffs on Mexican silver.

As far as refining goes, the role of the USA is negligible. The LMBA has this list of good delivery refineries. Only bars coming out of these refineries is considered as to satisfy the "good delivery" standard.
It's a list of 82 refineries.
Do you know how many of those good delivery refineries are in the USA? Three.
3 out of 82.
It means, US tariffs on Mexican silver have zero impact on the growing imbalances that we are seeing in the silver market.

The traders at the Comex and the Comex itself couldn't care less about the price of Mexican silver. First, they are not in the business of selling bullion, and second, they don't need bullion in order to sell futures.
If needed, they can use ETF shares or whatever is considered "equivalent" to physical in order to "back up" their derivative games.

I read that the EFP premiums guy says that "He clarifies that tariffs affect bars in LBMA that have hallmarks from countries subject to the tariffs. IOW, tariffs apply to LBMA bars if the bars originated in a country affected by the tariffs."
You can't recognise the country of origin of silver concentrate or doré. It's like Russian oil. Sanctioned by the EU. Russian oil can't enter EU. Russia then sells oil to India. EU imports oil from India.
Only industrial size ingots have the stamp of the refinery so they can be pinned down to their country of origin.
The LMBA good delivery list, do you know how many refineries in there has Mexico? One. The refinery of Penoles, the owner of Fresnillo Silver.
1 out of 82.
So how much LBMA silver would be hit by Trump's tariffs?

Cracks in the silver supply chain and price discovery mechanisms are becoming more and more evident but this has nothing to do with Trump's tariffs.
 
Now that makes sense from those prices we saw yesterday. Backwards market. Just shows how bad our economy really is and they are just flat out lying on everything.

Retail is getting fleeced again. Selling higher premium stuff for far below Industrial silver premiums. That's assine.
 
Now that makes sense
no it doesn't.
In the USA there are 24 silver refineries.
Only 3 of them are in the LBMA good delivery list.
Even if what this Scottsdale guy says is true - that those 3 refineries are sending their output to the Comex/Bullion Banks (how does he know?) - there are 21 more refineries servicing US industrial consumption.

I'm still waiting for some empirical data that US industrial consumption is having issues in sourcing reasonably priced metal, but even if it's true, this has nothing to do with US silver refineries servicing bullion banks: out of 24 refineries only 3 can serve bullion banks.

They are feeding stackers and goldbugs with so much crap.



Screenshot 2025-01-21 at 23.16.08.png


So, first they tell you that EFP premiums are high because the Comex can't source metal.
Now they tell you that EPF premium are high despite the Comex having no problem sourcing metal.

Nobody call them out because hearing high EFP premiums we all get excited and nobody wants to be considered a downer.
 
FWIW:
Bob Coleman said:
Many have asked to provide comments on the following statement.

@JoshPhilipPhair said:
Silver Refineries in the US are backed up more than 3 Months!!! They are processing so much material into Comex Good Delivery (on behalf of the banks) that industrial consumption is having issues finding reasonably priced physical Silver.

There are 2 main precious metals refineries in the USA. Precious metals in all forms (mining ore, dore, scrap, secondary retail products, etc) are brought in to melt into refined bars. Currently, the blow out in the Exchange for Physical (#EFP) premiums were creating an environment where these refineries are finding it more profitable to make Comex and London good delivery bars to the exchange rather than making retail products or other bars for a small fabrication fee per ounce.

Secondly, the retail selling back (as prices have been rising) has been tremendous. Retail dealers balance sheets are stretched and have been forced to sell back to wholesalers. Wholesalers are buying nearly everything at a discount to spot. It is more profitable to have this metal melted into larger bars to make money from the EFP blowout (due to tariff worries) than to sit on inventory with higher carrying costs.

Also as we are in the winter, the grades of #silver and #gold from mines are traditionally not as good since the chemicals that are used to extract do not work as well in the cold weather. If the grades are not good, the refining process may have to remelt pours until the assay meets purity specifications. Either the grades are not favorable or purer silver for example needs to be added to the pour to bring up the grade. This extends lead times. Also grades of metal coming from Wholesalers and other participants may require additional pours due to quality of material being delivered in.

We are in a perfect storm, if a large amount of capital decides to come into the physical market at the moment. Traditional modeling used in the Exchange for Physical trade has been chaotic. This started with tariff worries but now players are trying to play the arbitrage by sourcing large physical bars to deliver to the exchange against their short positions. This is a timing issue of the physical world and refining capacity against the paper world of arbitrage and the forward curve. Industry can still go to the Banks to get metal, delivery times could be pushed around due to the delivery process at the Comex vs buying OTC between buyer and seller. Also, Gold is more important at the moment for refiners due to the Comex February contract coming up for expiration vs the Silver’s March contract.

If the comment above were true, We would be in #backwardation (futures price is less than the spot price) if the immediate need by industry is overwhelming. Currently we are seeing higher than normal premiums against the forward curve. Since the EFPs were elevated, there has been more demand to cover short positions on the futures either by buying back contracts or delivering against the short position.

Money (Gold and Silver) goes where it is best treated and currently that is to the Comex.

 
no it doesn't.
In the USA there are 24 silver refineries.
Only 3 of them are in the LBMA good delivery list.
Even if what this Scottsdale guy says is true - that those 3 refineries are sending their output to the Comex/Bullion Banks (how does he know?) - there are 21 more refineries servicing US industrial consumption.

I'm still waiting for some empirical data that US industrial consumption is having issues in sourcing reasonably priced metal, but even if it's true, this has nothing to do with US silver refineries servicing bullion banks: out of 24 refineries only 3 can serve bullion banks.

They are feeding stackers and goldbugs with so much crap.



View attachment 15267


So, first they tell you that EFP premiums are high because the Comex can't source metal.
Now they tell you that EPF premium are high despite the Comex having no problem sourcing metal.

Nobody call them out because hearing high EFP premiums we all get excited and nobody wants to be considered a downer.

It's not crap if its plainly visible in the prices. The market is responding to the pricing. If they can buy smaller bullion, melt it and repour and now get a higher price they will do that.
 
It's not crap if its plainly visible in the prices. The market is responding to the pricing. If they can buy smaller bullion, melt it and repour and now get a higher price they will do that.

when someone tells you that US refineries are backed up because they are delivering to Comex,
whereas only 3 out of 24 US refineries are allowed to deliver to Comex,
he's feeding you crap
 
I asked ChatGPT and Grok:
pmbug said:
How many silver refineries are there in the USA? How many of these refineries are certified for LBMA good delivery silver? What percent of total silver refinery output do the LBMA good delivery certified refineries contribute annually?

Here are their answers FWIW:
 
when someone tells you that US refineries are backed up because they are delivering to Comex,
whereas only 3 out of 24 US refineries are allowed to deliver to Comex,
he's feeding you crap

That's kinda besides the point. The prices tell you that should and therefore will be happening. How long they are backed up is not that relevant.

I think it's fact at this point that there is a lot of retail selling right now, both of gold and silver. I think its also factual that there has been large industrial demand, mostly from overseas.
 
CEO of Scottsdale Silver:



This guy appears to be the source of the tweet. He did a 27 min video in addition to the tweet today. Specifically you can go to ~14 min mark for this info. He would be fairly well sourced as they have to do a lot of business with these refiners. The rest is some of him talking his book.

 
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That's kinda besides the point. The prices tell you that should and therefore will be happening. How long they are backed up is not that relevant.

I think it's fact at this point that there is a lot of retail selling right now, both of gold and silver. I think its also factual that there has been large industrial demand, mostly from overseas.
You are missing the point.
The point is not whether there is a lot of retail selling or not. I know there is.
The point is also not whether there is large industrial demand or not. I know there is.
The point is also not what the price is telling us. I think we agree on that one too.

The point is when you are told that US refineries are backed up because they are delivering to Comex,
whereas only 3 out of 24 US refineries are allowed to deliver to Comex,
one should realise that something doesn't add up.
 
That said, today I accidentally found this guy who also seems fairly well sourced

"Currently, these delays are being linked to a rush by COMEX to acquire deliverable bars. However, given that Metalor, the world's largest refiner, primarily deals in industrial silver products rather than bars, the idea that these delays are exclusively due to COMEX's needs seems inconsistent with my understanding."


 
Well sure, I'm sure the COMEX isn't the only entity scrambling for Silver right now. I'm sure the large players in the know all are trying to get some.
 
Ok people still don’t get it.

1) There is a glut of Gold & Silver products at U.S. Gold & Silver retailers (not Costco, and mostly stuff that the shops bought back from their customers). A lot of coin shops are offering below spot for both Gold and Silver buybacks.

2) There is a tight global market for “Good Delivery” Gold and Silver bars.

3) There is a tight global industrial Silver market (US Silver refiners are mostly working for the industrial buyers and they are backed up 3 to 4 months).

- Most of the generic Silver that shops are buying back are smelted by refiners and they go to the industrial buyers, not the exchanges.

- Most exchanges are looking for Good Delivery bars. Or they are directly dealing with refineries that deal with the miners.

- The U.S. retail Gold & Silver market is small compared to the global Gold & Silver market. U.S. retail Gold & Silver are mostly not getting smelted to make Good Delivery Bars for the exchanges.

 
So its basically everything we've been saying Except he says they are selling directly to industrial clients (ie I see India and China here) and skipping the Comex/market step alltogether.
 
So its basically everything we've been saying Except he says they are selling directly to industrial clients (ie I see India and China here) and skipping the Comex/market step alltogether.

He clarified in a comment that he meant domestic industrial clients:

 
Except he says they are selling directly to industrial clients (ie I see India and China here) and skipping the Comex/market step alltogether.
Yes, you recognise now that the story of the silver shortage because of comex deliveries was crap.


This guy appears to be the source of the tweet. He did a 27 min video in addition to the tweet today. Specifically you can go to ~14 min mark for this info. He would be fairly well sourced as they have to do a lot of business with these refiners. The rest is some of him talking his book.


not true


not true either

Btw, the world is still waiting to learn where the EFP premiums guy get those figures from. Everybody is quoting him but nobody asks.
For sure this vault and hedge fund manager is getting a lot of publicity with the EFP story. Good for him.
 
Perhaps Just the Threat of a tariff has drained the LBMA of GOLD no less
Why Voodoo?
Comex can deliver gold using EFP. They don't need it in USA in order to deliver it.

And do you really think that tons of gold start being shipped around the world just because of a tariff threat?
So what happens if those threats then don't consolidate? (Btw I heard Trump mentioning tariffs vs Mexico. Honest question: did he mention tariffs vs England too? How probable are US tariffs vs England?)

So, let's say there is no follow up to those tariff threats. Can you imagine tons of gold - the most fundamental monetary asset worldwide - having been shipped around the world for nothing? Do you think those entities are that stupid?

Cracks in the system are taking place because prices have been kept too low for too long and because of loss of trust in the institutions entrusted with managing the gold system, not because of Trump.
 
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Btw, the world is still waiting to learn where the EFP premiums guy get those figures from. Everybody is quoting him but nobody asks. ...

I did ask. Someone else answered me:



This was the post I was replying to:



As of this moment, I'm seeing

$31.98 - $31.10 = $0.88

Futures: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/si00
Spot (click silver button): https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do
 
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...
And do you really think that tons of gold start being shipped around the world just because of a tariff threat?
...

It's being reported by the FT amongst other media. It's not just a few publicity seekers talking about it on social media.
 
I did ask. Someone else answered me:



This was the post I was replying to:



As of this moment, I'm seeing

$31.98 - $31.10 = $0.88

Futures: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/si00
Spot (click silver button): https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do


Looks like that Bullionvault price is pretty much the same as what Trading View shows for Silver noted as Commodity CFD (contract for delivery?). Had an account there a long time ago. If that is the case I can create that same chart. This is COMEX:SI1!-TVC:SILVER to be specific.

1738273994209.png
Looks like it is blowing up again right now.

1738274034252.png
 
Why Voodoo?
Comex can deliver gold using EFP. They don't need it in USA in order to deliver it.

And do you really think that tons of gold start being shipped around the world just because of a tariff threat?
So what happens if those threats then don't consolidate? (Btw I heard Trump mentioning tariffs vs Mexico. Honest question: did he mention tariffs vs England too? How probable are US tariffs vs England?)

So, let's say there is no follow up to those tariff threats. Can you imagine tons of gold - the most fundamental monetary asset worldwide - having been shipped around the world for nothing? Do you think those entities are that stupid?

Cracks in the system are taking place because prices have been kept too low for too long and because of loss of trust in the institutions entrusted with managing the gold system, not because of Trump.

Airplanes are cheap. I cargo jet could carry a huge amount of money in the form of Gold. Silver is a bigger problem. To save a potential 25% tax, yes, yes I can see that throwing a wrench in this whole game of musical chairs.
 
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As of this moment, I'm seeing

$31.98 - $31.10 = $0.88
...

$32.68 - $31.69 = $0.99 @ 6:20am 1/31/2025

Did it come back down, of is the data I'm looking at not the best?

 
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It's really noisy. It was showing 0.88 cents after they closed. But the bar was like 1.50 wide. I didn't save it and having trouble getting it again, lol. I do see a high print near there. I see it about a dollar now.

1738330330018.png
 
Airplanes are cheap. I cargo jet could carry a huge amount of money in the form of Gold. Silver is a bigger problem. To save a potential 25% tax, yes, yes I can see that throwing a wrench in this whole game of musical chairs.

Gold ingots are not coffee Voodoo.
The value of a gold ingot is not its dollar value.
You must take into consideration its monetary function.

When you talk about gold the transportation costs are a no issue.
The tariff story - with the absurd idea of shipping around the globe tons of gold just in case... - doesn't make any sense not because of the transportation costs.




"the tariff b.s. is being used as the cover-up"
So, let's try this path Voodoo, just as a thought exercise.
If the tariff story is indeed bs, what could they be trying to cover up?
















When they feed you with some story you have first to check whether it pass the common sense filter.
(Common sense filter. Never heard that expression, surely there is a better one. My God my English...)
 
It's being reported by the FT amongst other media. It's not just a few publicity seekers talking about it on social media.




"There's a reason the puppeteers behind the curtain are pushing this narrative"
So, just as a thought experiment, let's say that Dave Kranzler (and for once me) are right.
What could be that reason?
 
@Peter89 - You are the one quoting conspiratorial references from social media talking heads. It's on you to provide an alternative thesis if you think the tariff narrative is wrong.

It looks like the silver patriation is being driven almost entirely by JPM (who is rumored to own a huge silver short position on the COMEX):



You might notice in those charts that the movements start just after November 25, 2024 (when Trump first announced his plan to impose the tariffs on Canada and Mexico). Given the time lag between redemption requests and delivery action, it certainly looks like a direct response to the tariff threat (or EFP dislocation).
 
Gold ingots are not coffee Voodoo.
The value of a gold ingot is not its dollar value.
You must take into consideration its monetary function.

When you talk about gold the transportation costs are a no issue.
The tariff story - with the absurd idea of shipping around the globe tons of gold just in case... - doesn't make any sense not because of the transportation costs.




"the tariff b.s. is being used as the cover-up"
So, let's try this path Voodoo, just as a thought exercise.
If the tariff story is indeed bs, what could they be trying to cover up?
















When they feed you with some story you have first to check whether it pass the common sense filter.
(Common sense filter. Never heard that expression, surely there is a better one. My God my English...)


Come on man. Shipping gold via Air is gonna be the cheapest thing you could possibly ship. It's a simple ratio of the Value/Weight & Size. If you need to get a bunch of gold somewhere you are gonna do it. Unlike trying to move some Oil, or coal or dirt for that matter.

Now do I believe the narrative that they are just giving it to the COMEX, no not really. They are probably covering for something but feel free to speculate on the actual reasons they are moving things around. It's pretty obvious that big things are afoot.

Perhaps its a Central Bank, or larger bankers, that are getting nervous about a war breaking out. They want their Gold closer to them and less likely to be confiscated. Who knows.
 
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I think this and the Trump tariffs are certainly connected. I think Trump is really attacking the Rigged NYC bankers and the rigged markets. Maybe that's just a little too much hopium, I don't know. Perhaps this is the start of their insider rug pull to us owning nothing. Kinda the same process.

We know that the market's pricing pretty much Everything thing is this world are run and controlled by NYC and Chicago to a lessor extent. They run the paper markets. But most all of these commodities are not produced here in the US. So they must all be imported, either via raw goods or finished products. So the bankers can NOT possibly cover their contracts now because all the goods they used to settle the paper markets are frelled.
 
Musings from my morning walk:

Consider physical gold/silver as a man enjoying a day at the beach. He walks out into the water a little over knee deep and decides to stand in place. There are tides at the beach and an undertow. The undertow gradually moves him out to sea. He spends a good bit of time out there and takes a step here and there but mostly tries to hold his ground while the undertow is slowly dragging him into deeper and deeper water. No one is really concerned though because he appears to be a strong swimmer and everyone thinks that he could walk or swim back to shore if he wanted to. However, undertows are inherently dangerous and it's quite possible that he might get pulled out to sea and drown if he enters deeper waters.

Now an earthquake happens miles offshore. All water at the beach gets sucked back to the sea. The undertow grows several times in strength and starts pulling our swimmer out to sea faster than he can swim back to the shore. He's in real danger now of being pulled beyond the event horizon and drowning.

Media reports that the earthquake is responsible for the man being sucked out to sea. Social media pundits say the MSM is BS - the earthquake is not responsible, the undertow is. The truth is the guy was going to end up being sucked out to sea eventually, but the earthquake accelerated the timetable. Arguing about narratives doesn't change the fact that the guy is being swept out to sea by tidal forces.
 
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During my tenure at Sprott (2002-2013), we had accumulated a significant position in silver in the 2005-2007 period. This was done via top tier bullion bank certificates that promised 5-day delivery. These weren't small positions - we're talking about substantial tonnage that was supposedly safely stored and readily available. What unfolded next exposed a troubling reality about the paper silver market and I believe led to the huge run in silver that followed as it ultimately ran to its all-time high in nominal terms.

When we decided to take delivery, what should have been a routine 5-day process turned into a nine-month odyssey of excuses and misdirection. We had strategically contracted to store our silver in Canada's government mint refinery and storage facility - ironically, the same facility that had been emptied when Canada foolishly sold off all its gold and silver reserves. The vaults were empty, waiting for our silver.

At first, our counterparties claimed it was merely a logistical issue. Then the excuses began:
  • First, they said the silver would come from New York and weeks went by
  • When that didn't materialize, it was supposedly coming from Chicago and months passed
  • Then England became the source, with a "couple of more months" shipping estimate assurances
  • Finally, they claimed it would come from China, requiring cross-Canada rail transport as a way of explaining a few months of delay
When I demanded bar numbers for our inventory purposes, we were met with weeks of silence and more excuses. Our legal position was frustrating - our lawyers advised that we couldn't effectively sue because what damages could we claim? Missing out on "the enjoyment of looking at our silver bars" wasn't exactly a compelling legal argument. Meanwhile, silver prices kept climbing.

The truth became clear: our counterparties had taken our money and likely just bought futures contracts. They never had the physical silver. This situation likely trigger the 2006-2010 silver rally and foretells what will likely occur again soon.
...

More:

https://x.com/BambroughKevin/article/1886120131534659914
 




Solve Nettug said:
Yes, as a non-English, I sometimes make myself unclear.

What I meant is 45% of LBMAs total inventory is tied to silver in the SLV trust. While the other 55% is a combination of other EFTs, available silver and not-available silver.

Comex are importing much from LBMA, but as Bob Coleman said, Chinese Bars are subject to 25% tariffs (plus also problem with Russian bars?). This leaves even less silver that can potentially be delivered from LBMA to Comex.

But even though there is a small percentage that could potentially be delivered to Comex, there should still be plenty of silver if their reports and previous comments are correct.

If there is no problem at LBMA, I would expect the drawdown of SLV list to be equally amongst countries. But when it is not, it even more tells me they are having serious issues.

pmbug said:
Tariffs on China bars should be 10%. It's Canada and Mexico that are 25% (at the moment!).

The data seems to be telling me that SLV is trying to help London's need for (cheap) silver deliveries to USA by offloading bars that won't carry an import duty (Kazakstan) and holding (maybe swapping 1:1 for the Kazakstan bars?) bars that either would (China) or can't be shipped at all (Russia). This assumes that SLV is not going to use their London vaulted inventory for any USA based redemption requests.
 
Funny clip Nick, but I'm not sure what it has to do with #silversqueeze. :dontknow:

~~~



If the rumor about retail net selling fueling domestic refineries was true, what will they do when retail is net buying again?
 
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