The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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This was an interesting note...

Chinese Car Brands​

BYD is currently the most popular independent car brand in China due in large part to its success in the electric vehicle market. Followed by Geely, Changan, Chery, Haval, and Great Wall.

In the past few decades, China's automobile industry has developed rapidly. Now it has become the world's largest automobile producer and new car consumer market, and automobiles are an important part of China's economy.

While Chinese car brands were initially focused on producing low-cost, compact cars, the industry has rapidly expanded to include a wider range of vehicle types and segments. In recent years, Chinese automakers have also invested heavily in research and development and are increasingly producing higher-end vehicles and luxury cars.

 
Been reading this guy for 20 years don't think he has ever been anything but bullish. Might have missed something. Maybe.

Yeah, he chooses his moments to publish. I guess that is better for business. Not like he is alone there. At least he crunches numbers and supports his case. In the midterm he has a reasonable record IMO.

People are very bad @ saying sell....
 
Yeah, he chooses his moments to publish. I guess that is better for business. Not like he is alone there. At least he crunches numbers and supports his case. In the midterm he has a reasonable record IMO.

People are very bad @ saying sell....
He writes a good newsletter coherent and well put together. Nice pictures too.
 
The thing is the USD is going to have a natural tendency to strengthen here. Given the point that we seem to be at. i.e. things are breaking and have been for a little while, we may well see moves to weaken the USD to try and lessen the stress on the system as a whole. I think we may be very near the Fed's puke point... I dunno, it looks like the USD is going to try and run and my guess is that they don't really want too much of that.
 
The internutz seems to be screaming 'liquidity crisis right here, right now' at the top of it's lungs. I wonder how the market is going to fck them up?
 
Sugar too. IIRC Sugar and Silver used to trade side by side in New York back in the day.


 
Bonds are getting trashed so rates going higher. Algo's still selling everything with the higher rates / stronger dollar.
 
got spare cash?


Even those that bought long ago are IN Trouble. Most CRE debt, amazingly, apparently is all on Adjustable Rates. So ALL of it could be in trouble. Doesn't matter when you bought, just gives you more cushion.

The same goes for most of the world outside of the US Residential debt. Out 30 year fixed rates are pretty rare other places.
 
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10 year yield blasting higher today, but gold isn't dumping. I'd say that's a positive sign for gold. Seems sellers are getting a little exhausted
 
Capitulation lows today or trap? Bought a little more.
I added to my June '24 GDX calls, and closed my DUST position, as well as bought some GDXU. I don't think this is capitulation, but I'm thinking this is about as low as we go. I'm thinking we are going to see a "soggy bottom" - where gold & miners tread sideways for a few weeks disappointing both bulls and bears. Then resume higher after september.
I'm hoping we bust a move higher much sooner, as I have some November calls that are about 80% off when I bought them. But realistically, with rates and the dollar moving higher together, I don't think gold has much hope in the short term.
 
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