The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

Welcome to the Precious Metals Bug Forums

Welcome to the PMBug forums - a watering hole for folks interested in gold, silver, precious metals, sound money, investing, market and economic news, central bank monetary policies, politics and more. You can visit the forum page to see the list of forum nodes (categories/rooms) for topics.

Why not register an account and join the discussions? When you register an account and log in, you may enjoy additional benefits including no Google ads, market data/charts, access to trade/barter with the community and much more. Registering an account is free - you have nothing to lose!

Voodoo said:
Perhaps a bottom but this is not really a capitulation. We are in the middle of a bull market even though it doesn't really feel great right now.
Click to expand...
Tomato tomato. Still selling mining shares lately regardless of what Silver does. Decent up day and flat to down sharply. Seems like GMTFO at any price now.
 
Cigarlover said:
I'm moving my money to East Timor. Of course I need to find that on a map 1st. :)
Click to expand...

It would probably help! Near northern neighbours of ours, we helped them to get to independence in the 90's. It was a bit awkward with the Indonesians from memory, but they seem to have gotten over it. They had the perfect leader, he didn't want the job, but he was good at it, and they kept pushing him forward. The ideal politician IMO.
 
Lancers32 said:
Tomato tomato. Still selling mining shares lately regardless of what Silver does. Decent up day and flat to down sharply. Seems like GMTFO at any price now.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I dunno, GDX looks like a bounce here or a bottom @ the least in the short term. ROC has been diverging for almost 10 trading days and now momentum seems to following. I'm going to call bullish for a little while @ the least. Maybe it's a dead cat bounce, we C.
 
Lancers32 said:
goldseek.com

The Blood Bath Phase of the Crash Has Begun

Precious metals aren't going to bottom until stocks are pretty close to the bottom. I think we're entering a blood bath phase: 5 to 7 days of all-out panic selling.
goldseek.com goldseek.com
Click to expand...
Claims he called the bottom in metals yesterday. So if you want the good good ya gots ta pay. Seems he has the same screenwriter as David Brady.


 
Say what?


ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 
I watched this and many like it. You can see how the education system has been used to set one significant part of the USA against the other. The question that arises is how organic was it, and how much of it was brought about by some external influence?

 
Brady weighs in. A little back and forth with Savage. So Brady is long but it still looking for sub 22 Silver. This guys works for Sprott?


 
Zed said:
I watched this and many like it. You can see how the education system has been used to set one significant part of the USA against the other. The question that arises is how organic was it, and how much of it was brought about by some external influence?

Click to expand...

Wrong kind of boyfriends I would imagine.
 
Zed said:
LOL... maybe we should charge for the Fringe, as good a track record as any. {dismal + 25%}
Click to expand...
Well, from the 'even a broken clock is right twice a day' club, I will say that the call SLV options I bought last week out of the money are treating me well. They are currently in the money. I have a stop in place now for a third of the options. If it triggers I will have broken even and be playing with house money. I will put a limit order in for another third of them that, if triggered, will double my original outlay. The rest of it will ride, just in case we get a moon shot between now and Sept 15.
 
The gold market is trading near session highs, seeing some modest safe-haven flows as activity in both the U.S. manufacturing and service sectors contracted more than expected.

The S&P Global Flash U.S. manufacturing PMI data dropped to 47.0%, down from July's reading of 49. According to consensus estimates, economists were looking for a relatively unchanged reading at 48.9.

Activity in the manufacturing sector has fallen to a two-month low, the report said.

Meanwhile, activity in the service sector was weaker than expected, falling to 51.0%, down from last month's reading of 52.3. Economists were looking for a print around 52.1.

The report said that activity in the service sector has dropped to a six-month low.
...
Click to expand...

www.kitco.com

Gold prices trading near session highs following disappointing preliminary manufacturing services sector data

(Kitco News) - The gold market is trading near session highs seeing some modest safe-haven flows as activity in both the U.S. manufacturing and service sectors contracts more than expected.
www.kitco.com
 
  • Despite a remarkable rally in stock markets so far this year, concerns have been growing over the potential ripple effect of a prolonged slowdown in the world's second-largest economy.
  • David Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Thursday that global stock markets were failing to price in a long-term decline in the role that manufacturing plays in powering emerging market economies.
  • He suggested the market is due a "very big" downward correction, once many concurrent geopolitical and macroeconomic risks are properly priced in.
...
He added that economies that historically exported manufactured goods will struggle to generate any meaningful growth in that sector, which will cause "big disappointments in populations, more geopolitical problems and more riots in the streets."

"The Chinese model is clearly washed up on the beach with a huge number of legacy holes in it, and it's not going to take off again," Roche said.
...
He suggested that the market is due a "very big" downward correction, once these many concurrent risks are eventually taken into account.

As such, Roche recommended investors should look to "slowly accumulate" U.S. Treasurys and safe haven assets that offer yields at their currently cheap levels.
...
Click to expand...

More:

www.cnbc.com

China's economic model is 'washed up on the beach,' says veteran investor David Roche

China's economic model is "washed up on the beach" and "not going to take off again," which will have a big impact on global markets, says veteran investor David Roche.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
savvydon said:
Well, from the 'even a broken clock is right twice a day' club, I will say that the call SLV options I bought last week out of the money are treating me well. They are currently in the money. I have a stop in place now for a third of the options. If it triggers I will have broken even and be playing with house money. I will put a limit order in for another third of them that, if triggered, will double my original outlay. The rest of it will ride, just in case we get a moon shot between now and Sept 15.
Click to expand...

It appears that we have elevated our performance from dismal to mediocre...

Is the dead cat bouncing, or are we putting in our sprint to December delivery?

 
GDX Daily - If anything a little too hot off the mark, let's see what gives when the shorts are covered.

GDX_2023-08-24_08-01-09.png
 
Silver Daily - Higher low, spot the covering off the averages again, ideally we need a 26+ high set next.

SI1!_2023-08-24_08-05-27.png
 
Silver AUD Daily - I don't know how they arrive @ our volume numbers, but they are impressive of late.

XAGAUD_2023-08-24_08-06-42.png
 
DXY Daily - It's struggling at these levels, looking like a slow roll-over. I don't really expect anything startling out of this. Looks like it might just set a higher low over 100. Watching that level for a genuine trend change. We have a slightly higher high, next we need a higher low if this is trend reversal. No man's land IMO.

DXY_2023-08-24_08-10-06.png
 
GDXJ well up against GDX, check that one off the required trading action list. 2.83% v 3.55% even though they share way too many stocks...

GDXJ_2023-08-24_08-15-46.png
 
US10Y Daily - For now it looks to be mean reverting, I'd expect 'selling' (aka higher rates) to come in at around the 4% level.

US10Y_2023-08-24_08-25-16.png
 
SPX - Looks like the trend is still in play, no matter what you feel about the fundies. Remember that if big money isn't going into bonds (rates up) it will HAVE to be parked elsewhere. If you are moving billions, Blue chip is safer than a bank these days. The good news for bugs IMO is that this will bleed into the maligned and unloved yellow metal and relatives. JMO etc...

SPX_2023-08-24_08-30-39.png
 
NASDAQ - On the other hand, here we have a lower low, so we have to consider a trend change being in play. Failure @ the 50-day makes the 200-day a target. I think we might be seeing a rotation out of tech here, with the SPX benefiting over the NASDAQ for a while.

NDX_2023-08-24_08-34-12.png
 
I have to say, there are way too many 'crash test dummies' finding a voice at the moment. I'm not buying it yet, I'm in Oliver's grinding bear with plenty of confusion camp. Changing the market's mind and attitude here will be a war of attrition, keep in mind they are paid to be positive about the prospects here. The industries bias is up in the face of whatever may come.

Messy times, the true traders are going to be like pig's in poo.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom