The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

Welcome to the Precious Metals Bug Forums

Welcome to the PMBug forums - a watering hole for folks interested in gold, silver, precious metals, sound money, investing, market and economic news, central bank monetary policies, politics and more. You can visit the forum page to see the list of forum nodes (categories/rooms) for topics.

Why not register an account and join the discussions? When you register an account and log in, you may enjoy additional benefits including no Google ads, market data/charts, access to trade/barter with the community and much more. Registering an account is free - you have nothing to lose!

Berkshire Hathaway's monstrous cash pile topped $300 billion in the third quarter as Warren Buffett continued his stock-selling spree and held back from repurchasing shares.

The Omaha-based conglomerate saw its cash fortress swell to a record $325.2 billion by the end of September, up from $276.9 billion in the second quarter, according to its earnings report released Saturday morning.

The mountain of cash kept growing as the Oracle of Omaha sold significant portions of his biggest equity holdings, namely Apple and Bank of America. Berkshire dumped about a quarter of its gigantic Apple stake in the third quarter, making the fourth consecutive quarter that it has downsized this bet. Meanwhile, since mid-July, Berkshire has reaped more than $10 billion from offloading its longtime Bank of America investment.

Overall, the 94-year-old investor continued to be in a selling mood as Berkshire shed $36.1 billion worth of stock in the third quarter.
...
Click to expand...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...sells-more-stock-freezes-buybacks/ar-AA1to6CE

Getting ready for the blood in the streets...
 
Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates 25bp tomorrow. I think market expectations for the cut are likely mostly already priced in.
 
Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential win has raised the bar for China’s fiscal stimulus plans, expected Friday.
...
If Trump raises tariffs to 60%, that could reduce China’s exports by $200 billion, causing a 1 percentage point drag on GDP, Zhu Baoliang, a former chief economist at China’s economic planning agency, said at a Citigroup conference.
...
“In response to potential ‘Trump shocks,’ the Chinese government is likely to introduce greater stimulus measures,” said Yue Su, principal economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. “The overlap of the NPC meeting with the U.S. election outcome suggests the government is prepared to take swift action.”

She expects a stimulus package of more than 10 trillion yuan ($1.39 billion), with about 6 trillion yuan going towards local government debt swaps and bank recapitalization. More than 4 trillion yuan will likely go towards local government special bonds for supporting real estate, Su said. She did not specify over what time period.

Mainland China and Hong Kong stocks fell Wednesday as it became clear that Trump would win the election. U.S. stocks then soared with the three major indexes hitting record highs. In Thursday morning trading, Chinese stocks tried to hold mild gains.

That divergence in stock performance indicates China’s stimulus “will be slightly bigger than the baseline scenario,” said Liqian Ren, who leads WisdomTree’s quantitative investment capabilities. She estimates Beijing will add about 2 trillion yuan to 3 trillion yuan a year in support.
...
Click to expand...

More:
 
pmbug said:
I'm beginning to think that this is the reason Buffet is going to cash. SMCI is going to crash NVDI and the equity markets are going to get ugly...
Click to expand...
Astute observation. They know something.

Cash is king for the one-eyed man in a world of blind people.
 
They are trying to sucker everyone in with this Trump rally. Rugpull around the corner.

I think the FED might actually raise rates or hold steady today. 2-year bonds are calling them out. If they truly follow the bonds then they are going to be behind, in the wrong direction.
 
Silver dropped slightly in China overnight (trading under $34). Maybe this is why...

There are three certainties in life: death, taxes and China stimulus disappointing.

For the latest example look no further than the plan revealed this morning by the National People’s Congress Standing Committee, which approved a 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) debt swap package for local authorities to refinance “hidden” local debt onto public balance sheets. ...
...
“To really have a positive for markets, you want to see something which is two trillion or above specifically talking about consumption-related stimulus,” Bernie Ahkong, CIO at UBS O’Connor Global Multi Strategy Alpha told Bloomberg TV.

So was this a disappointment?

According to the market - with Chinese stock futures and the yuan both tumbling - a resounding yes ...
Click to expand...

More:

China Disappoints With Latest "Bare Minimum" Stimulus As It Waits For Trump Tariffs | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 


Bezos and Buffet - building a cash stash and ready for bloody streets...
 
pmbug said:


Bezos and Buffet - building a cash stash and ready for bloody streets...
Click to expand...

Sounds like a lot but it isn't. In fact he could do that every day for about 6 months and still have shares.
I'd be happy if I had a dollar for every share he owns. LOL.
As of March 2024, Bezos owned 937,774,000 shares of Amazon stock, which amounts to a stake of more than 9%
Click to expand...
 
This post may contain affiliate links for which PM Bug gold and silver discussion forum may be compensated.
...
The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed overwhelmingly bearish sentiment from industry experts, while the bullish contingent of retail traders also slipped into the minority for the first time in months.
...
Click to expand...

More:
www.kitco.com

Wall Street and Main Street both bearish on gold for next week as risk assets reign supreme

The Kitco News Team brings you the latest news, videos, analysis and opinions regarding Precious Metals, Crypto, Mining, World Markets and Global Economy.
www.kitco.com www.kitco.com

Gold and silver prices are lower, with gold sharply down, in early U.S. trading Monday amid a surge in the U.S. dollar index to a 4.5-month high to start the trading week. Also featured is technical selling pressure and more profit taking from the shorter-term futures traders. Metals traders are also concerned about less demand coming out of China. ...
Click to expand...

More:
www.kitco.com

Price pressure on gold, silver on strong U.S. dollar, demand worries

The Kitco News Team brings you the latest news, videos, analysis and opinions regarding Precious Metals, Crypto, Mining, World Markets and Global Economy.
www.kitco.com www.kitco.com
 


Silver continues to drift lower in China. I guess they need more stimulus...
 


Silver bounced up in China from $32.59 the day before...
 
Target I was looking at was 29.80 on silver. Bounced off 29.75 this morning. If that holds then this selloff may be over. If not then 26 is next target on my radar.
I'm still roughly 65% cash and not planning on jumping into anything long term anytime soon.
 
Yeah that's a bit curious. I don't remember a whole lot of them dropping margins. I wonder if its hurting the shorts more than any longs. No one to get rinsed out, but the shorts still need that extra margin.
 
pmbug said:
Click to expand...

IIRC your not allowed to export metals from China. Why cant we put the same rule in place in the US and have 2 different prices?
So China goes to 50 but the US stays at 30. Better for industry in the US to have access to cheaper inputs. RN I think JPM and GS are the only players that can move metals in enough quantity to make the trade from the west to the east profitable. That would come to an end if a new rule was in place.
 
Wouldn't it be ridiculously expensive to export to China? Wouldn't shipping costs kill any benefit??
 
Goldhedge said:
Wouldn't it be ridiculously expensive to export to China? Wouldn't shipping costs kill any benefit??
Click to expand...
I would think so with a small spread. If that spread widens to say 10 bucks an oz then on a large enough trade it may be worth it. Load a shipping container for 10k in London and drop it off in China. A million ounces with a 10 dollar spread would be very profitable then.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom