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pmbug said:
Metals seem to have caught some bids this morning. Is the sale/dip over?
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Everything still trading below the 20 DMA. IMO we need to break above and hold it for this to be over but certainly a step in the right direction. Need AG to get up and hold above 32.50 and AU to get up and hold above 2700.
 
Maybe. I'm somewhat familiar with MikeCristo8's posting history on X and he throws a lot of shit at the wall and rarely acknowledges when he was absolutely wrong. DYODD with any claims he makes IMO.
 
This is something worth considering:



A strong move down for the DXY should boost the price of gold & silver in USD terms. However, it might also put stress on the Yen carry trade I would think.
 


Gold and silver down slightly in China in Monday trading.
 
Voodoo said:
At this point we are in the end game. EVERYTHING is a scam, a fraud, a pyramid scheme, rehypothecated phoney baloney.
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Sure feels like 1999. Loads of money just being thrown at anything with Ai in the name. Grocery stores selling at 50-60 PE's. LOL. None of it makes sense. BTC may be the craziest thing of all. 100,000 for a digit on a computer. More than I paid for my house on 18 acres of land. The investment thesis? Hoping that someone with more money will come along and buy your bits. That thesis now has a 2 trillion dollar market cap. LOL. When the liquidity dries up it will get very interesting. Slowly they will sell then momentum on the downside will pick up and fear will take over and they will get out at any price. Margin calls will kick in and people will be ruined. In the aftermath people will wonder what happened.
 


This domino is poised to take down NVDA and all the funds that have large exposure to same (ie. most of them)...
 
What say you denizens of bugland?

pmbug

ChatGPT: Post in thread 'Commodity market effects of black swans'

I think in the last few weeks, hedge funds have been selling gold and buying crypto. There is a decent chance that NVDA might blow up due to accounting fraud (like Enron) and Binance might get exposed for fraud similar to FTX. Should these events catalyze, I suspect crypto is going to drop as hedge funds raise cash to meet margin calls. Gold will likely catch some safe haven bids from investors too.
 


Gold and silver down slightly in China, but still well above spot.
 
In addition to potential fallout from SMCI, NVDA appears to have more issues percolating:



This is what I was referring to in the black swans thread referenced two posts up.
 
pmbug said:
In addition to potential fallout from SMCI, NVDA appears to have more issues percolating:



This is what I was referring to in the black swans thread referenced two posts up.
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It's fine... Nothing to see here. SMCI issued a report saying there is no fraud.... BUT everyone involved got fired. :pffft: :poop:

It's up 30% today of course.

 
Seems like gold, silver and BTC all traded flat today. Guess folks weren't going to make big moves with uncertainty about South Korea in the air?
 
Bankruptcies on the rise:
www.kitco.com

Is the U.S. in the heat of a recession right now? Jump in bankruptcies echoes global financial crisis – Danielle DiMartino Booth

The Kitco News Team brings you the latest news, videos, analysis and opinions regarding Precious Metals, Crypto, Mining, World Markets and Global Economy.
www.kitco.com www.kitco.com

Jobs numbers down:
www.kitco.com

Gold prices continue to consolidate as ADP says 146K jobs created in November

The Kitco News Team brings you the latest news, videos, analysis and opinions regarding Precious Metals, Crypto, Mining, World Markets and Global Economy.
www.kitco.com www.kitco.com

Service sector growth less than expected:
www.kitco.com

Gold trades near session high as November ISM Services PMI falls to 52.1

The Kitco News Team brings you the latest news, videos, analysis and opinions regarding Precious Metals, Crypto, Mining, World Markets and Global Economy.
www.kitco.com www.kitco.com

Seems like a lot of headlines that the Fed might use to justify a rate cut.
 
Jim Wille says (33min mark) a bullion bank will die in the next few months.... BoA?

Also Japan is unloading Treasury and Euro bonds $63B worth. G7 soveriegn bond debt is considered toxic.
 
Food for thought...

***#Gold and #Silver Alert***

Could the #Trump #Tariffs be the answer to higher gold and silver prices?

What does #Mexico, #Canada, #Australia, and #China all have in common? They are some of the largest producers of gold and silver. Setting a tariff on these countries would also include any export of good delivery #Comex gold and silver bars from their respective approved refiners. Even if the bars are stored in a neutral country like Singapore or London and made 10 years ago, the country of origin still needs to be declared before entering the USA. Which means even older bars that originated from the above countries would still be subject to the tariff.

What this means is, if a short seller or an institution which has a gold or silver short position on the Comex,in order to close the position they either have to buy back the short or deliver the metal to the exchange. The current lead month contracts for gold is February 2025 and silver is March 2025. There have been an enormous amount of futures selling against physical positions that may be held outside the USA.

Guess what happens before these contracts expire? President Trump takes office in January 2025. If he is successful in implementing tariffs, these players who are massively short during these months and have bars that are hallmarked from countries that now have tariffs placed on them would have no choice to buy back their short positions or deliver their metal subject to tariffs. When you deliver tariff-levied metal that increases the delivery cost and removes any arbitrage.

Example, Someone sells 100 silver contracts against their existing physical position. Assume Spot price is $31 and the March Silver contract is $31.50. 5000 ounces per contract would equate to
Spot value $31*100 contracts*5000 per contract= $15,500,000
Future value $31.50*100 contracts*5000 per contract= $15,750,000
In a perfect world, selling a futures contract and delivering at the contract date would net $250,000 profit

However, now we have a whole bunch of metal that may have the risk of tariffs. The seller faces the following dilemma.

If tariffs are implemented before the contract delivery month, the cost to deliver the silver held outside the USA could be the following:

Current value at time of clearing through US customs let’s say $31.00
Effective Tariff rate implemented at 20%
Cost of Tariff would be
$15,500,000 (value of silver) times 20% = $3,100,000

So now the short seller’s cost to deliver the silver becomes $15,500,000 plus $3,100,000 = $18,600,000

Their profit of $250,000 now becomes a loss of $2,850,000 if they had to deliver silver with hallmarks from tariff countries. Essentially making these bars economically undeliverable.

Yes, these players could swap for other bars but that adds to the cost and may become a taxable event. Or Banks or clearing firms can deliver their bars to the Comex before January but that also entails costs and these bars may have other obligations attached making a move more difficult.

The only other thing the short seller can do is buy back their short position. However, how may other players are thinking the same thing or forced into the same position? A sudden buying back of short positions tends to show up in the EFP (exchange for physical) premium blowing out to the upside. Bullion Banks and investment firms are typically net sellers of the EFP since the #EFP premium naturally goes to zero as the futures contract reaches expiration and reaches equilibrium with the cash spot price .

For Silver, there are 140 approved hallmarks, approximately 45 of these hallmarks could be effected by tariffs.

Increasing tariffs is one way to disrupt the system and possibly force heavy losses to financial entities.
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searcher said:
... Keith Gill, the investor known as "Roaring Kitty" who helped spur the meme stock mania of 2021 ...
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He's tweeting again ...



Embed system crops the image. The top of the image shows that it is a mock TIME magazine cover.
 
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Silver didn't quite hang in there to close above $32 today. Maybe tomorrow?
 
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