The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

TheRealZed · Oct 12, 2022

Gold is a #Quad4 asset...

Goldhedge · Oct 12, 2022

Speaking of the #FourthTurning this was interesting

Neil Howe On The Fourth Turning: How Bad Will It Get, How Long Will It Last & What Comes Next?

TheRealZed · Oct 12, 2022

TheRealZed · Oct 12, 2022

How bizarre...

...nothing new under the sun, as they say.

TheRealZed · Oct 12, 2022

Will gold get softened up before the announcement?

CPI Preview: Another Market Freakout On Deck? | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

TheRealZed · Oct 12, 2022

TheRealZed · Oct 12, 2022

Yeah, petrodollar... I dunno, but not looking like they are "all the way USA".

TheRealZed · Oct 13, 2022

This --->

---> It happens out here in the boon docks first!

TheRealZed · Oct 13, 2022

TheRealZed · Oct 13, 2022

LOL >

TheRealZed · Oct 13, 2022

Political numbers? No sir, they are as solid as China's GDP# !

Wait.... what?

TheRealZed · Oct 13, 2022

Yeah, well...

Thousands Of US Officials Trade Shares Of Companies They Regulate: WSJ | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

TheRealZed · Oct 13, 2022

I'm going to sleep, don't blow the markets up over a CPI number while I'm gone!

Voodoo · Oct 13, 2022

Zed said:
Short hedging ramping up...

They have naked shorted many of these ETF's. Some think they are hiding short interest in say GME and others now in the relevant ETF's. Would make some sense if they are getting nervous to suddenly buy Calls on those.

Voodoo · Oct 13, 2022

Zed said:
I'm going to sleep, don't blow the markets up over a CPI number while I'm gone!

Well.... Oops. I'm loving it.

Uglytruth · Oct 13, 2022

You guys are working way to hard. Do it the easy way.

A New York Times analysis found that 97 lawmakers or their family members bought or sold financial assets over a three-year span in industries that could be affected by their legislative committee work.

https://archive.ph/3kuh6#selection-3577.5-3584.0

Lancers32 · Oct 13, 2022

Badly in need of a stick save.

Voodoo · Oct 13, 2022

Uglytruth said:
You guys are working way to hard. Do it the easy way.

A New York Times analysis found that 97 lawmakers or their family members bought or sold financial assets over a three-year span in industries that could be affected by their legislative committee work.

https://archive.ph/3kuh6#selection-3577.5-3584.0

You mean selling my soul to the dark side and becoming the thing I hate? I would not term that the easy way and certainly not the right way.

Strawboss · Oct 13, 2022

Voodoo said:
The Dollars Never really even existed UNTIL they are needed to pay back the loan. I'm not exactly sure how they create the opening transaction but the money did not exist. Otherwise, why would they need to BUY Dollars now? They need them now to pay back the debts. All these make believe loans created USD out of nothing. And when the debt pyramid starts to collapse now they need the real things, that don't exist.

Its pretty simple. Currency swaps.

Lets use the most recent example - the US and Swiss swapping $3billion notional. Both sides create the currency that is swapped out of thin air with the agreement to unwind at some future undetermined time. On the date of opening transaction - the swap is balanced - i.e. equal value on both sides.

Fast forward x amount of time and the relative exchange rates are now diffferent...i.e. one leg of the swap is more valuable than the other. So - when it comes time to pay back - the weaker leg of the swap is easier to pay back than the stronger leg.

Now thats at the CB level...step down a level and you have MNBs doing essentially the same thing with each other - and below that - you have a whole multitude of contracts executed with repayment in USDs...everything from OTC derivatives, short term funding, leveraged funding on asset classes that are distressed, etc...

The stronger the USD gets - the greater the pain to unwind - refi, etc...

Jim Sinclair talked about this many, many years ago and Martin Armstrong used to beat the table about this...first the peripheral nations currencies go poof...and then it will be Japan and then Europe...
The dominoes are now falling - others are teetering and we have quite a ways to go before the full volume of carnage can be assessed. Prepare for the worst times in human history dead ahead...

pmbug · Oct 13, 2022

CPI came in hot. Fed expected to raise rates more. Markets shitting the bed accordingly.

BigJim · Oct 13, 2022

"Horrible"... "Brutal"..."A Disaster For Democrats": A Shocked Wall Street Reacts To Today's CPI Nuclear Bomb | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Goldhedge · Oct 13, 2022

Uglytruth said:
You guys are working way to hard. Do it the easy way.

Follow the stars....

Lancers32 said:
Badly in need of a stick save.

One of the 'stars'.

Strawboss · Oct 13, 2022

pmbug said:
CPI came in hot. Fed expected to raise rates more. Markets shitting the bed accordingly.

You forgot to mention that gold and silver got smashed...which makes perfect sense...

/sarc

Voodoo · Oct 13, 2022

Strawboss said:
You forgot to mention that gold and silver got smashed...which makes perfect sense...

/sarc

Everything trying to climb out a bit except those two.... Gee I wonder who's pumping money to try and save the day.

pmbug · Oct 13, 2022

Strawboss said:
You forgot to mention that gold and silver got smashed...which makes perfect sense...

/sarc

??? All markets (including gold and silver) were getting smashed when I posted my comment - hence my statement that "Markets shitting the bed accordingly." Markets = stocks, bonds/treasuries, commodities, crypto, etc. The only thing that was green was the dollar index.

Voodoo · Oct 13, 2022

Supposedly this is the reason out of the EU. Not withstanding that a lower terminal rate in the EU will exacerbate their inflation, make the US dollar shortage problems worse, etc.

Stocks Erase CPI Losses After ECB Headlines | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

pmbug · Oct 13, 2022

It's all about whether or not the news will force a central bank pivot. It's not the news that people are trading, it's the expected response to the news.

JayDubya · Oct 13, 2022

Here's the 2022 Fed rate hikes:
March 17th - 25 basis points
May 5th - 50 basis points
June 16th - 75 basis points
July 27th - 75 basis points
September 21st - 75 basis points

I know a lot can happen between now and then, but does anyone want to lay the odds on whether the Fed raises rates by 100 basis points come November 2nd?

dpong · Oct 13, 2022

I'll interpret it. S&P up not because there was good news, but because that was about as bad a news that was likely to come out. Thus it is massive short covering. We said this earlier in this thread (or this thread _over there_) that these kind of quick sharp rallies don't occur in bull markets. This is a bear market short covering rally in the stocks. IOW, it will not last.

dpong · Oct 13, 2022

They call me Captain Obvious.

Lancers32 · Oct 13, 2022

If you think AOC and the Squad are socialists ask yourself why they don't push for living wage and Medicaire for All. The peasants are waking up little by little.

TheRealZed · Oct 13, 2022

JayDubya said:
Here's the 2022 Fed rate hikes:
March 17th - 25 basis points
May 5th - 50 basis points
June 16th - 75 basis points
July 27th - 75 basis points
September 21st - 75 basis points

I know a lot can happen between now and then, but does anyone want to lay the odds on whether the Fed raises rates by 100 basis points come November 2nd?

150 baked in.

TheRealZed · Oct 13, 2022

pmbug said:
It's all about whether or not the news will force a central bank pivot. It's not the news that people are trading, it's the expected response to the news.

Always about market perception! Yes. They are starting to spin the peak inflation narrative, with 150 bp baked in this might get legs for a bit.

TheRealZed · Oct 13, 2022

Good news is bad? Bad news is good!

Voodoo · Oct 13, 2022

Zed said:
Good news is bad? Bad news is good!

A PPT stick save and all the institutions hedging the CPI with those puts you love... We could easily be back down this amount tomorrow. I had some sell this morning but several of my other 1/3 sale trades expired Yesterday as they probably would have hit in the morning. DOH, that was dumb.

TheRealZed · Oct 13, 2022

Voodoo said:
They have naked shorted many of these ETF's. Some think they are hiding short interest in say GME and others now in the relevant ETF's. Would make some sense if they are getting nervous to suddenly buy Calls on those.

How can you possibly know this? RegSho lists lag by a month or so because of the lead times in establishing a FTD?!

We have Septembers first half to look at...

SEC.gov | Fails-to-Deliver Data

This text file contains the date, CUSIP numbers, ticker symbols, issuer name, price, and total number of fails-to-deliver (i.e., the balance level outstanding) recorded in the National Securities Clearing Corporation's ("NSCC") Continuous Net Settlement (CNS) system aggregated over all NSCC members.

www.sec.gov

Attached is a list derived from the RegSho dtata showing the most naked shorted symbols in September.

TheRealZed · Oct 13, 2022

Voodoo said:
A PPT stick save and all the institutions hedging the CPI with those puts you love... We could easily be back down this amount tomorrow. I had some sell this morning but several of my other 1/3 sale trades expired Yesterday as they probably would have hit in the morning. DOH, that was dumb.

Those puts I love? WTF?

It's just a market observation.

I warned you that this was setup for a short cover rally. 150bps are baked into this cake already as the Fed has signaled strongly, the new spin seems to be peak inflation is now, people will cover or at the least step back.

This could be quite a face ripper.

...but I'm not betting on it.

Voodoo · Oct 13, 2022

Zed said:
How can you possibly know this? RegSho lists lag by a month or so because of the lead times in establishing a FTD?!

We have Septembers first half to look at...

SEC.gov | Fails-to-Deliver Data

This text file contains the date, CUSIP numbers, ticker symbols, issuer name, price, and total number of fails-to-deliver (i.e., the balance level outstanding) recorded in the National Securities Clearing Corporation's ("NSCC") Continuous Net Settlement (CNS) system aggregated over all NSCC members.

www.sec.gov

Attached is a list derived from the RegSho dtata showing the most naked shorted symbols in September.

I haven't dug into it to deeply as it is complicated and they are just gonna lie, cheat, and steal anyway. You'd have to dig around Readit to get details. You don't think its a coincidence that they want a meme stock ETF and SINGLE stock ETF (which is fucking retarded and should be illegal) on many of the meme stocks.

TheRealZed · Oct 13, 2022

Top 50 naked shorted stocks @ Sep.

SYMBOL	QUANTITY (FAILS)	DESCRIPTION
HEMP	278945955	HEMP INC
CMGR	86262263	CLUBHOUSE MEDIA GROUP INC
KYNC	33592712	KYN CAP GROUP INC COM
IVCTF	30647426	INVICTUS ENERGY LTD ORDINARY F
KNEOF	28586298	KNEOMEDIA LTD SHS FULLY PAID
VIZC	26000000	VIZCONNECT INC
NEOG	20689052	NEOGEN CORP
GRAB	20419836	GRAB HLDGS LTD CL A ORD (CYM)
AVCT	19561948	AMERICAN VIRTUAL CLOUD TECHNOL
AFOM	18247713	ALL FOR ONE MEDIA CO CORP COM
HUML	17702405	HUMBLE ENERGY INC COM STK (NV)
MCOA	14572000	MARIJUANA CO AMER INC COM NEW
SMRT	11230869	SMARTRENT INC
BIL	10345226	SPDR BLOOMBERG 1-3 MONTH T-BIL
SLV	9913036	ISHARES SILVER TRUST
CYDY	9543951	CYTODYN, INC.
AMC	8477657	AMC ENTMT HLDGS INC CL A COM S
GTCH	8410000	GBT TECHNOLOGIES INC
MUB	8302187	ISHARES NATIONAL MUNI BOND ETF
APE	7938428	AMC ENTMT HLDGS INC PFD EQUITY
ALYI	7346277	Alternet Systems, Inc. New Com
PSNY	7137614	POLESTAR AUTOMOTIVE HLDG UK PL
GDVM	6937032	GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS INC. COMMO
OIBZQ	6637302	OI S A SPONSORED ADR NEW 2016
NAFS	6366806	NORTH AMER FRAC SAND INC COM (
JPST	6152224	JP MORGAN ETF TR ULTRA-SHORT I
BLSP	6118101	BLUE SPHERE CORP
QQQ	5593687	INVESCO QQQ TR
CORZ	5449274	CORE SCIENTIFIC INC COM
BARK	5434854	BARK INC COM
FFIE	5177007	FARADAY FUTURE INTELLIGENT ELE
TGHI	5102390	TOUCHPOINT GROUP HLDGS INC COM
TLRY	5059772	TILRAY BRANDS INC
FOMC	5000000	FOMO CORP
DNA	4780529	GINKGO BIOWORKS HOLDINGS INC C
SWVL	4729210	SWVL HLDGS CORP COM CL A (VGB)
TGMGF	4667430	THETA GOLD MINES LTD ORDINARY
FAZE	4518333	FAZE HLDGS INC COM
FNDE	4391371	SCHWAB FUNDAMENTAL EMERGING MK
ECOX	4363441	ECO INNOVATION GROUP INC COM
UPST	4265011	UPSTART HLDGS INC COM
CPTN	4077447	CEPTON INC COM
HYG	4047594	ISHARES TR
WNRS	3994034	WINNERS INC
IWM	3822074	ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 ETF
SWIM	3809953	LATHAM GROUP INC COM (DE)
PR	3758833	PERMIAN RES CORP CL A (DE)
AABB	3684549	ASIA BROADBAND INC
NBEVQ	3556782	NEWAGE INC. COM

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