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Zed said:
AUD Gold Monthly - Cleaner looking chart than the USD chart. Looks like it has enough juice in the tank to make the upside break.

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Seems to me we usually get a little end of the year burst in POG. Next two days should tell the tale. If we close the week above USD $1840/oz then Santa may provide us with a bit of a tailwind going into 2023.
 
Voodoo said:
FTX had pretty much the same thing going on ...
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Not really. FTX legal entities and office locations were known/established. Binance is playing a different game with corporate jurisdiction IMO.
 
pmbug said:
Not really. FTX legal entities and office locations were known/established. Binance is playing a different game with corporate jurisdiction IMO.
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They had an office location. Big whoop. I'd argue the number of legal entities were not well known or people would have had more concerns over FTX.
 
pmbug said:
This is, I believe, why US regulators have such a hard on for them.
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I listened to a guy talk BTC today, he was describing the potential for a network implosion. You need the miners to run the b-chain but if the BTC value falls below the cheapest miners cost to operate they will close down. At some point the b-chain ceases to function. Right now you can buy mining rigs for pennies on the $, they are shutting down at the current price. One more stab down and does it hit a critical point? Got gold?
 
Price of silver, gold and other commodities has fallen below the cost of production before. Did miners stop producing? Not really. They operate at a loss as long as they can waiting for a price correction. Can BTC survive a similar dynamic? Interesting question.
 
pmbug said:
Did miners stop producing? Not really.
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They high graded... to stay alive, then they put mines on care and maintenance all the while dumping inventory to meet costs exacerbating the issue until there was a supply crunch, often they went broke. However if you shut down every mine in the world gold would still trade, not so BTC. At some point the block chain stops working if the reward for running it ceases to be there. Gold miners are way more captive with a HEAP more capital investment than even the most sophisticated BTC setup. Even then they can only go so far negative for so long. The question is if the block chain is impaired will people still want to get into BTC or will it become a 'run on the bank'...? Will it set up a vicious circle?
 
At some point maybe soon Bitcoin is a screaming buy just like Crude was when it dove to 10 bucks and USO holders ran out of the fund screaming. Always works that way. Money has to go somewhere. So is the triple bottom in Gold low enough and are the metals a buy and hold on the next move down or do we enter another bear market and see Silver under 15 and Gold under 1500? I think Uranium and the pm complex is a buy and hold on the next dive down for the long term.
 

I doubt it shuts down entirely but may be unusable for regular transactions. After all, Bitcoin wasn't worth much at all for years and it kept running. Granted the difficulty was easier but I doubt it shutdown. No what is the value though, not nearly as much.

Keep an eye on Platinum. I think it leads this Bull market even ahead of Silver. The switch from Palladium to Pt seems to be happening now. And inventories for Pt are even lower than Silver. Throw in Russia potential and that could be explosive.


 
I see alot of positive action in the miners. Gold and silver miners acting like they are going to bust a move higher very soon. I'm thinking middle of next week?

Monday the markets are closed, so maybe Tues/Wed we get a breakout in GDX through $30?
 
Elon Musk Following Wall St SIlver. Hmm, I may have to stop hating on him as much. Nah.

But look at Platinum from Rafi... only enough Pt for 2,600 contracts and 23,429 are open.



 
Platinum has been teasing a move for most of the year. Just as it pokes its head up it gets whacked back down. It does seem like on one of these thrusts it is going to break through and keep going. Stay tuned...
 
Voodoo said:
After all, Bitcoin wasn't worth much at all for years and it kept running.
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Yes... but the hashing algo was easier to resolve then so each BTC cost virtually nothing to mine. Now it costs a packet to get just one coin... that is the issue.
 
Lancers32 said:
At some point maybe soon Bitcoin is a screaming buy just like Crude was when it dove to 10 bucks and USO holders ran out of the fund screaming. Always works that way.
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Yeah... but you can always trade crude or whatever @ any price. If the blockchain seizes up due to lack of mining participation what gives? I don't think that, given the nature of BTC, transactional commissions/revenue are enough to maintain the block chain as nobody is buying stuff with it....

So? Is there a terminal price for BTC?
 
Zed said:
Yes... but the hashing algo was easier to resolve then so each BTC cost virtually nothing to mine. Now it costs a packet to get just one coin... that is the issue.
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Then how do they mine Shiba-Inu or any of the other nearly worthless thousands of S&^% coins?
 
One of the gold majors, B2 gold (BTG), is the main stock I'm watching right now. If it can break above $3.60, its go time for the whole sector. I'm expecting a couple months of upward movement.
I think it's going to happen next week if it's going to happen.
 
Other stocks are showing similar patterns to AEM, that is a month long consolidation since November. I've seen many point out the hesitation and lackluster performance in many of the miners while silver continues higher. This is concerning, but I think they are about to play catch-up. We need confirmation to be sure; I'm watching for a breakout above the trendline in EXK and a break above the horizontal resistance in BTG.
EXK is flagging out, and ready to bust a move:
 
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Some of the gold miners that made the strongest moves have shown topping signals recently, like the doji candlesticks on AEM, circled. A sign of a reversal. However, over the past week they have held up strongly. I think the strength is suggesting it was not actually a reversal. Just a pause. I think we continue higher from here.
What do you think?
One of the leaders, AEM:
 
Meant to say BTG, not AEM.
 
Voodoo said:
Then how do they mine Shiba-Inu or any of the other nearly worthless thousands of S&^% coins?
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The algorithms are way easier to solve. BTC munches a lot power just to get one coin. BTC is power hungry and it gets worse as each coin is mined.
 
I've got Permabull Neurosis Syndrome, which means that I always rationally think we should be moving higher, yet emotionally expect to get kicked in the nuts... yet again. All that being said, I think 2022 started out with market irrational exuberance as PMs shot up in the face of the Ukraine war, which was not what TPTB had scripted. Following this we had a long corrective slog as interest rates were hiked and the sector was leashed and muzzled. Just when everyone was screaming that the bull was dead, and we were heading back to $14 silver, the sexy sister got off of her deathbed and started leading the way up. The move has, for the most part, occurred under the radar of the public eye, and has been fairly orderly. I think the stage is set for the move to continue. Lots of moving parts and I see a fair probability that things line up in such a way that a strong breakout is solidly in play. Think all time high for POG and a solid move above $30 for silbur. If that happens it is game on. 2c
 
I thought the level of difficulty goes down as miners exit. It's only the volume of miners that drives difficulty? The problem for miners seems to be how leveraged their operations are. It goes to a $1 dudes will be mining in their basements again.
 
Zed said:
The algorithms are way easier to solve. BTC munches a lot power just to get one coin. BTC is power hungry and it gets worse as each coin is mined.
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So wouldn't that increase the value of the coins that exist? Personally not a Bitcoin participant but have found it interesting.
 
Carrion Crow said:
So wouldn't that increase the value of the coins that exist? Personally not a Bitcoin participant but have found it interesting.
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I don't know... but power has gone up a heap and BTC has come down a heap so it can't be anywhere near as profitable as it was.
 
BeefJerky said:
I thought the level of difficulty goes down as miners exit. It's only the volume of miners that drives difficulty? The problem for miners seems to be how leveraged their operations are. It goes to a $1 dudes will be mining in their basements again.
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I'm pretty sure that the algo just keeps getting harder with each coin mined. The rate that it gets harder would slow down as miners exit but that is about all.
 
so it costs 13,000 to mine 1 bitcoin? At the end of all that mining you have 1 digital bit that you are hoping someone sees value in. Or you could mine about 10 ounces of gold for the same 13,000.
Imagine someone comes up to you and offers you 10 ounces of gold for 13,000. You jump on that quick..
Now imagine someone offers to transfer 1 digital bit to you for the same 13,000.
The choice is simple. You can hold something real with real value or you can hold something that has nothing backing it and hope you can find a bigger sucker than you to but it for more than you paid. Maybe hit up Michael Saylor(Sp) before his credit limit runs out. LOL.
 
Zed said:
I'm pretty sure that the algo just keeps getting harder with each coin mined. The rate that it gets harder would slow down as miners exit but that is about all.
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Than that's a terrible flaw in the design...RIP
 
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