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Or how to write off the debt using inflation...
Slow to start, but then it gets interesting
Kwarteng Opts for Growth Instead of Gold Standard. Will It Work?


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OldGarandDad said:
The Euro without German industry. Hmmm... Sounds like a cover story to me.

Germany has been exporting its heavy industry to all the Eastern European states. I think German tool maker Wera makes more of its tools in the Czech republic, Hungary and other Eastern European states than it makes in Germany.

I work for a US joint venture that is in a German company. That company totally destroyed my belief that the Germans were precision, timely and motivated. What a joke! Thankfully the whole mess just got acquired by a US company. Many of the Germans bolted to the exits like cockroaches when the lights get turned on.

German banks have been in decline for years. Deutsche Bank has been a walking dead financial zombie for longer than I can imagine.

German automakers are turning into the new Peugeot and Fiat. Mercedes couldn't even turn Chrysler around.

In short, I think the German economy cratering will just be cover story of how the EU elites raped Europe for their own ends and to clear the board for their next con game.
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Yeah this seems to be a cycle, they once were the best... then again so was US made. Hopefully you are on the upswing again.
 
Goldhedge said:
Or how to write off the debt using inflation...
Slow to start, but then it gets interesting
Kwarteng Opts for Growth Instead of Gold Standard. Will It Work?


View attachment 352
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US10Y looks the same, loooooong term trend broken. However, given the enviroment you can expect us to fall from 4% back to 1.5% and go into a mid term basing pattern. Most probably this will not go straight up, there will be, needs to be a digesting period IMO.
 
What do you think the chances of the market dropping just before the midterms?

This could get interesting.... "people vote their pocketbooks" is a common saying around these parts.
 
Lancers32 said:
Without cheap energy all of this will go down.
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I came to the realisation around 2004 that really the USD was backed by oil due to the structure of the international system, break that link and the currency is anchorless and in trouble. A BRIC currency breaks that link if oil trading moves to that arena. This is at the root of this conflict -> JMO.
 
Goldhedge said:
What do you think the chances of the market dropping just before the midterms?

This could get interesting.... "people vote their pocketbooks" is a common saying around these parts.
Click to expand...

I'm sort of expecting a "state of emergency" before the midterms. Given the way the last election went down I'm not going to bat an eyelid if they balk at facing the people this time.

Other than that extreme loony idea the Fed likes to keep things smooth for elections so .... rally anyone?

You roll the dice here...

Talk to me after this week or so.
 
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Zed said:
I came to the realisation around 2004 that really the USD was backed by oil due to the structure of the international system, break that link and the currency is anchorless and in trouble. A BRIC currency breaks that link if oil trading moves to that arena. This is at the root of this conflict -> JMO.
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USA already called Saudi's bluff on abandoning the petrodollar. They blinked. MBS flexed in killing Kashoggi and getting away with it, but they are still trading in dollars. The rest of the middle east kowtows. I really don't see a hypothetical BRIC currency gaining enough traction to unseat king dollar. If the Euro couldn't swing it, the BRICs sure as hell wont. $.02
 
pmbug said:
USA already called Saudi's bluff on abandoning the petrodollar. They blinked. MBS flexed in killing Kashoggi and getting away with it, but they are still trading in dollars. The rest of the middle east kowtows. I really don't see a hypothetical BRIC currency gaining enough traction to unseat king dollar. If the Euro couldn't swing it, the BRICs sure as hell wont. $.02
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The Euro never should have existed in the first place. I think the dollar still has a ways to go as the reserve currency but at some point it won't be. Maybe not in my lifetime no idea when but I think it is coming.
 
Lancers32 said:
The Euro never should have existed in the first place. I think the dollar still has a ways to go as the reserve currency but at some point it won't be. Maybe not in my lifetime no idea when but I think it is coming.
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So about 5 years then? [Oh no I didn’t!].

🐸
 
pmbug said:
USA already called Saudi's bluff on abandoning the petrodollar. They blinked.
Click to expand...


History, don't you think? The ground is shifting.

pmbug said:
MBS flexed in killing Kashoggi and getting away with it, but they are still trading in dollars. The rest of the middle east kowtows. I really don't see a hypothetical BRIC currency gaining enough traction to unseat king dollar.
If the Euro couldn't swing it, the BRICs sure as hell wont. $.02
Click to expand...

The Euro was a cluster f*** from day one, it can't play the reserve role until the Eurozone's structural flaws are addressed (splintered debt market and fiscal policy). Everyone knows that and no-one really expects that they are going to address the issues anytime soon. It was never in contention, ever, whatever the Euronutz desired.

If the BRIC's currency is a hard (i.e. backed) and you have most of the oil producers involved then WTF are the Americans going to do... start a war? Well... there is that. You listen to the internal dialogue of the BRIC's and you hear loud and clear they are sick of the USA and the USD dominating their markets. As we seem to be shifting into a time of relative scarcity the power dynamic shifts toward commodity suppliers... to assume that the petro-dollar arrangement will remain given the current global dynamic is a little myopic IMO. The world has changed significantly since the 70's, the US isn't what it was.

Sooooo, I'm going to wait and see what this thing looks like ***IF*** it appears. Done well it could be the start of a systemic shift!

There is no, "sure as hell" about this. Face it, the US is basically broke, it's getting worse and must by design get worse (Triffin Dilemma). The only thing saving you for now is much of the world is similar or worse and the US has the reserve... for now. De-dollarisation is a theme that has been persistent for quite some time, the question is --> is it imminent? If we fall apart like 2008 that may be the last straw for these countries. Thing is we don't really know how they are thinking about it currently. We know it is a desire but are they there yet? One thing I do know is that China and Russia now dwarf the US gold holdings so gold backed is a real possibility, but not at this POG.

Some of the experts steeped in this stuff are talking about a split global system... I can't see that lasting, in the end there will be one winner -->JMO

So... USD melt up then melt down? Could take a while, we could be @ the start of it or maybe we kick the can another ten years down the road.

Watch this space.
 
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Lancers32 said:
The Euro never should have existed in the first place. I think the dollar still has a ways to go as the reserve currency but at some point it won't be. Maybe not in my lifetime no idea when but I think it is coming.
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The Euro was broken by design. They might be aiming to fix that in the next big crisis... but the US will not want to see that happen.
 
dpong said:
So about 5 years then? [Oh no I didn’t!].

🐸
Click to expand...

IF it happens it will be like the Wall falling... the situation setup slowly then it happened quickly. Some people will wake up one morning and think WTF?! How did that happen?! A--> Gradually over the last 3 decades but it only mattered today!
 
Lancers32 said:
Who know? So it appears as if Martin Armstrong's China Panic Cycle came and went. No refunds,
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China has a tight grip, they are great at ignoring economic realty and capable of it for longer than we can imagine. One day it falls in a heap but betting on 'the day' is a sure way to lose... ask Kylie Bass.
 
All it would take is someone to light off a Roman [nuke] candle for a black swan event of epic proportions.

The MSM insists Putin is planning to do it any second now... they also say he has cancer and is about to drop dead.
 
Zed said:
The Euro was broken by design. They might be aiming to fix that in the next big crisis... but the US will not want to see that happen.
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I don't think they can fix it really it should just die. Just go back to each country using their own currencies. Most of them hate each other anyway.
 
Zed said:
They make the right moves and it could have another 100 years.

They slip and it could go up in smoke fast.

I'm not confident either way.
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Fractional reserve has to go bye bye. We are fast approaching the point where it just explodes. Keep adding zeros isn't the answer.
 
You are going to love your green future! You will own nothing, because there will be nothing, and you will be h.......... Y?!!!!

 
Nuthin happens with the banks then we relief rally?



... gold probably gets clobbered, just because.

Never seen so many crash calls, it's a rare day that life lets this many people be right on a call.
 
Blinken Calls Sabotage Attacks On Nord Stream Pipelines A "Tremendous Opportunity"

by Tyler Durden
Monday, Oct 03, 2022 - 07:40 AM

Ever since the recent unprecedented sabotage attacks on the Russia to Europe Nord Stream pipelines, the central question has continued to remain who did it and correspondingly cui bono?

Just when speculation and an avalanche of theories have inundated the web on an array of international outlets, the Biden administration has bluntly (and apparently lacking self-awareness) boasted that the pipeline bombings present an "opportunity".

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a Friday joint press briefing with Canada's top diplomat that the damage and disruption to the pipelines are being seen in Washington as a "tremendous opportunity" to greatly reduce European energy imports on Russia.



In addressing the 'mystery' sabotage incidents, Blinken began, "I think first it’s important to make clear that these pipelines – that is, Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 – were not pumping gas into Europe at this time. Nord Stream 2 never became operational, as is well known. Nord Stream 1 has been shut down for weeks because of Russia’s weaponization of energy."

A mere few sentences later, he followed by saying "ultimately this is also a tremendous opportunity. It’s a tremendous opportunity to once and for all remove the dependence on Russian energy and thus to take away from Vladimir Putin the weaponization of energy as a means of advancing his imperial designs."

He at the same time touted that the Untied States has now become "the leading supplier of LNG [liquefied natural gas] to Europe," stressing too that the Biden administration is helping to enable European leaders to "decrease demand" and "speed up the transition to renewables."
Tellingly, in that single section of comments while speaking alongside his Canadian counterpart, Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, Blinken had repeated the word "opportunity" while highlighting the European energy crisis no less than three times.

Canada's Joly for her part pointed the finger at Russia for sabotaging its own pipeline during a panel discussion the same day, telling an Atlantic Council conference that the world is "not naïve" about who is responsible for the acts of "sabotage". She's the latest top official of a NATO government to do so.
But the Canadian foreign affairs minister stopped short of naming Russia directly in the exchange:
"At this point we're still investigating, but obviously we want to make sure that we do things the right way, but we're not naïve," she said.
"You're not naïve as to who's behind it?" Sciutto responded.
"As I said, we won't speculate but at the same time, we want to make sure that — the world needs to understand that this is very important European infrastructure that was sabotaged," the minister added.
Click to expand...
On the other side of the question of culprits and the crucial cui bono question, The American Conservative offers the following commentary:
One could certainly see why sabotaging Nord Stream benefits the US. We didn't want Europe to get Nord Stream in the first place, because it would make Europe dependent on Russian gas. This is perfectly reasonable, from an American point of view. However, if Washington sabotaged those pipelines in the middle of the Ukraine-Russia war, that would mean an insane escalation of the war, to sabotaging critical infrastructure.
Think about it: if Russia can't deliver gas to Europe anyway, because the pipelines are too damaged, that makes it harder to make peace and restore energy flow to Europe. This fits Washington's policy goals. That doesn't mean Washington is responsible for this sabotage, but there's a lot more reason for Washington to have blown the pipelines up than for Russia.
Click to expand...
The publication continues, "Prominent Polish politician Radek Sikorski understood this, firing off this ill-advised tweet as soon as the news broke."...


Finally, we note that China state-affiliated media mouthpiece could not resist commenting on Blinken's apparently cluelessly ironic comments, saying what much of the rest-of-the-world is perhaps thinking...

Below is the full section of transcript and context wherein Secretary Blinken dubbed the pipeline incident and European energy crisis a "tremendous opportunity" [emphasis ours]...
* * *
"I think first it’s important to make clear that these pipelines – that is, Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 – were not pumping gas into Europe at this time. Nord Stream 2 never became operational, as is well known. Nord Stream 1 has been shut down for weeks because of Russia’s weaponization of energy.

What we’ve been doing – and we’ve also been working on this together for many, many weeks as we saw the Russian aggression in Ukraine and as we saw the ongoing weaponization of energy by Russia – is to work very closely with European partners as well as countries around the world to make sure that there is enough energy on world markets. And so we’ve significantly increased our production as well as making available to Europe liquefied natural gas. And we’re now the leading supplier of LNG to Europe to help compensate for any gas or oil that it’s losing as a result of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

We’ve worked to release oil from our Strategic Petroleum Reserve to make sure as well that there is oil on the markets and to help keep prices down. We’ve engaged with the European Union and established months ago a task force to work directly with Europe on ways to decrease demand to help get through the winter, as well as to pursue additional supply and to find ways to speed up the transition to renewables even as we’re getting through this challenging period. So all of that work is ongoing.

My own sense – and I mentioned this the other day – is, look, there’s a lot of hard work to do to make sure that countries and partners get through the winter. Europe itself has taken very significant steps to both decrease demand but also look at ways to pursue the transition to renewables at the same time. And ultimately this is also a tremendous opportunity. It’s a tremendous opportunity to once and for all remove the dependence on Russian energy and thus to take away from Vladimir Putin the weaponization of energy as a means of advancing his imperial designs.
That’s very significant and that offers tremendous strategic opportunity for the years to come, but meanwhile, we’re determined to do everything we possibly can to make sure that the consequences of all of this are not borne by citizens in our countries or, for that matter, around the world."
 
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