The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

... the headline manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management disappointed expectations in January, contracting for the third month in a row.

The ISM manufacturing index was at 47.4% last month versus the consensus forecast of 48%. The monthly figure also marked a one-percentage-point decrease from December’s reading of 48.4%.
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Voodoo said:

Agreed, I've sold a couple Put spreads dipping my toe into the water. Think I have the $10-$8 spread and $8.5-6.5 spread on UNG. Energy is energy and we need every form we can get. Except for nat gas all the sudden, lol. Somehow cheaper than when oil went negative. I had to go look up actual energy contents and looks like 1 BOE (barrel of oil equvalent) is ~5.55 mmBtu (common nat gas measurement). That's about 18% and we shouldn't really go below that level. Edit: It looks like 18% is low and I forgot you would need a bunch more energy to refine the oil so that probably accounts for the higher natural levels.

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The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent. The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
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