Treasury yields hold steady after consumer sentiment report
Bond yields are mixed Friday morning after data showed U.S. consumer sentiment rose in early February.
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Treasury yields were mixed Friday morning after data showed U.S. consumer sentiment rose in early February although inflation continued to weigh on the minds of many Americans.
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The spread between 10- and 2-year Treasury notes was slightly less inverted early Friday. The 10-year yield traded 79.7 basis points below the yield on the 2-year note. The spread finished the U.S. session on Thursday at minus 82.5 basis points.
An inversion of that measure of the yield curve, which typically slopes upward, is seen as a reliable recession indicator, though some analysts and economists, including the researcher who first popularized the relationship, have questioned its predictive power in the current environment.
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My thoughts exactly. Had a less experienced friend discover EW and asked me about it. Told him just about what you said, and it gives me a headache besides.I think that the market is fractal as Elliot observed BUT seeing that and quantifying it in real time is a movable feast. 20/20 hindsight is great with EW, but real time... never seen anyone be that good at it.
Prechter won Timer Digest Trader of the Year 2 years running 84 and 85 and he ended up screwing the pooch bigly. I get cross eyed looking at all the waves.
Your stop loss level is clear. Rather buy down here at this level than chase but that is a personal choice.
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He went sideways in 1990.Still waiting for his $200 gold... just saying.
He went sideways in 1990.
Rather buy down here at this level than chase but that is a personal choice.
Now that's what I'm talking 'bout.
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The consumer price index, which measures a broad basket of common goods and services, rose 0.5% in January, which translated to an annual gain of 6.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective increases of 0.4% and 6.2%.
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Sales at retailers rose far more than expected in January as consumers persevered despite rising inflation pressures.
Advance retail sales for the month increased 3%, compared with expectations for a rise of 1.9%, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. ...
... the New York Federal Reserve reported better-than-expected activity within its region's manufacturing sector.
Wednesday, the regional central bank said its latest Empire State manufacturing survey's general business conditions index rose to -5.8, up from January's reading of -32.9. The data significantly beat expectations, as economists were looking for a reading of -18.2.
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The National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) monthly confidence index rose 7 points to 42 in February, the trade group said on Wednesday.
This is the second month in a row that sentiment has improved among builders.
The jump in confidence in February was more than what analysts had expected. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected the index to rise to 37.
The February reading of 42 was the strongest since September 2022, the NAHB said.
The last time builder sentiment rose by this magnitude was in June 2013.
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What are they saying? “The NAHB Home Sales Index showed further signs of stabilization in February as mortgage rates came down further during the month,” Eugenio J. Alemán, chief economist at Raymond James, wrote in a note.
“However, this situation may be reversed in the coming months as we expect mortgage rates to increase once again due to the Fed’s active interest rate campaign,” he added.
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Yes probably BS but how do you invest based on BS? Whats your strategy?If one could believe the (lying government) numbers ....
... according to Bill Smead, chief investment officer at investment firm Smead Capital Management.
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It isn’t the first time Smead has blamed younger generations for high U.S. inflation. ...
Inflation rebounded in January at the wholesale level, as producer prices rose more than expected to start the year, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
The producer price index, a measure of what raw goods fetch on the open market, rose 0.7% for the month. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 0.4% after a decline of 0.2% in December.
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The initial weekly jobless decreased by 1,000 to 194,000 in the week to Saturday, surprising the markets with a slight drop.
Economists’ consensus calls projected for initial claims to rise to 200,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 195,000.
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That's a great question. I'm always reading about and listening to podcasts about trend following. The strategies are all based on price which cannot really be faked. I mean the price is what people are paying. No BS discernment required.Yes probably BS but how do you invest based on BS? Whats your strategy?
At the end of the day the market reacts based on the Gov numbers. BS or not. I am open to alternative investment strategies based on some other set of numbers though.
After hot PPI, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester rubbed salt in the wounds of the market this morning when said she saw a compelling case for rolling out another 50 basis point hike earlier this month and the US central bank has to be prepared to move interest rates higher if inflation remains stubbornly high.
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Holding money i.e., 'saving it' is an blunder these days. If you don't spend it, it almost becomes worthless over night.Consumer spending is part of the engine of inflation, but it's not the primary fuel.
Holding money i.e., 'saving it' is an blunder these days. ...
I'll check him out. I always enjoy good financial podcasts.That's a great question. I'm always reading about and listening to podcasts about trend following. The strategies are all based on price which cannot really be faked. I mean the price is what people are paying. No BS discernment required.
This guy may take a little getting used to, but I enjoy his podcasts. At the end of the day he is a truly great interviewer. He really does know what he's talking about. YMMV.
Michael Covel's Trend Following Radio: 15 Million+ Downloads
“Your questions were excellent questions. I enjoyed this very much.” Vernon Smith, Nobel Prize in Economics “You are an exceptional interviewer.” Charles Faulkner, Market Wizard “You’ve surrounded yourself with one of the most advanced group of mentors possible…The people on your podcasts, and...www.trendfollowing.com
Some would call that manipulation...Puking my ass. Some real big money is just throwing themselves into the markets. Especially Bitcoin. I suspect the PPT / FED banks.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged past $24K in Wednesday afternoon trading to reach a two-week high, helped by a combination of short liquidations and broader risk-on sentiment.
The token drove up 9.1% to $24.20K as of 5:08 p.m. ET, partly contributing to the global crypto market cap's 6.4% climb to $1.10T, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Virtually all major cryptos caught a bid during the session despite looming regulatory pressures and stronger-than-expected economic data.
Traders liquidated $61.2M of short-bitcoin (BTC-USD) positions over the last 24 hours, pushing up the coin's price, according to data from Coinglass. That's the highest level in which traders have covered their bearish BTC bets since Jan. 24.
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He interviews on a wide range of topics, so no single episode will be representative.I'll check him out. I always enjoy good financial podcasts.
Especially Bitcoin
He is a hard core believer in trend following and will therefore occasionally trash other styles like trading fundamentals, and sometimes he maybe goes too far.
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