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Gold, looking like it needs to get back above 2,000 if its going to be bullish.
View attachment 8838
We'll get there. I still think 1800 comes 1st though.We need a higher high on the next swing up and we can't afford any lower than a double bottom @ that 50% area... IMO. SO yeah 2K plus soonish is needed.
Damn fine chart!GC - Gold - 6mth chart. Taking a look at a wide time frame the back drop looks gold positive from a T/A perspective. We went about 3x from these sorts of indicator levels as the 1900+ spike occurred in 2011. IMO this is ~ = to the mid $600 in 06/07. $1800 x 3 gives $5400 which is a number I estimated back in 2002 looking at the 70's bull market relationships and applying them to the ~ Y2K lows. It also cropped up in some fibo work projecting off the 2011 run up. I know we get some wild numbers thrown at us but I think this next run stops there about. After that?!
View attachment 8843
Gold has gone up by a factor of 8 times off of every Major bottom. 100 800 plus 250 1920ish. 8000 is more than reasonable.GC - Gold - 6mth chart. Taking a look at a wide time frame the back drop looks gold positive from a T/A perspective. We went about 3x from these sorts of indicator levels as the 1900+ spike occurred in 2011. IMO this is ~ = to the mid $600 in 06/07. $1800 x 3 gives $5400 which is a number I estimated back in 2002 looking at the 70's bull market relationships and applying them to the ~ Y2K lows. It also cropped up in some fibo work projecting off the 2011 run up. I know we get some wild numbers thrown at us but I think this next run stops there about. After that?!
View attachment 8843
GC - Gold - 6mth chart. Taking a look at a wide time frame the back drop looks gold positive from a T/A perspective. We went about 3x from these sorts of indicator levels as the 1900+ spike occurred in 2011. IMO this is ~ = to the mid $600 in 06/07. $1800 x 3 gives $5400 which is a number I estimated back in 2002 looking at the 70's bull market relationships and applying them to the ~ Y2K lows. It also cropped up in some fibo work projecting off the 2011 run up. I know we get some wild numbers thrown at us but I think this next run stops there about. After that?!
View attachment 8843
That looks like an Excellent Rocket Ship Platform to me. Nice strong Cup and Handle and we've managed to take a lot of momentum out while maintained near all-time highs. Someone just needs to give us the Countdown.
Also, I think price targets are going to get pretty silly, don't get shaken out because of some target. Remember that values gold in USD and the USD is dying. I have set my price goals in terms of houses/cars etc. What do I think a house will sell for in gold ounces, etc.
I actually wanted to add some softs after they were beaten down pretty bad and it is starting to dry out in the Midwest. I bought like 3 WEAT $7 call options yesterday. It has really been beaten down, for no real good reasons that I can see. Ya, Ukraine isn't a disaster but still, we are below invasion levels.
Personally I don't like all those small Fib retracements and such. I don't like to trade real often as I just get faked out. I like looking a little longer term picture and try to get the bigger moves right.
View attachment 8810
My understanding is this 'flood' is only temporary....Looks like we are not the only ones noticing wheat. Plus this flood in Ukraine is adding to possible bullishness. That looks like one big falling wedge and is bullish if we can break out. Possible price target back to at least $8 / bushel.
ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zerowww.zerohedge.com
My understanding is this 'flood' is only temporary....
Sure, but here is the worry. Plus it may damage some current crops, I don't know.
" The risk is Russia could reduce the flow of grain exports from Ukraine through the Black Sea in response to the incident. "
I think the risk is not having at least a small position in the commodity complex.
Remember that values gold in USD and the USD is dying.
Hmmmmm, down here we value it in AUD.
I have not been able to poke a decent hole in the idea that the USD dies in strength before exceptional weakness, so there is that. I'm fairly convinced we have not seen the full extent of the up leg yet. For me the AUD Gold price high is likely to come well before the USD high, when the USD fails the AUD is likely to preform quite well so gold may not be worth holding @ that point.
... and we are looking @ this deflationary condition developing.
... while I think that their is a strong bull case for oil I can see that it might end up coming from a much lower after some dis-order in the market. Ditto commodities, I'm not convinced that the road will be smooth going forward although I think an epic opportunity is coming @ some point.
Long story short I think that these markets will become a bit treacherous, blowing yourself up while being at some level fundamentally correct will be easy. As goldbugs we should be right at home with that concept!
So yeah... hmmmm, I'm not thinking this will be that straight forward at all.
PS> The spread sheet that I made (Fibo based), the one that projects 4300 (min) to $5400 gold (probable), is the one that projected a $48 high in silver a long time before that reality (it sounded nutz @ the time). So far it's been close to the money in most respects. BTW it said $158 (min) to $199 silver (probable). This time around. I have no idea if that is a final target for this bull market, I suspect not... but?!
Haha I have to laugh. I have been putting a little bit of $ in TNA recently sitting on some gains, that’s a warning I usually lose any gains I sit on. Maybe it’s different this time.When times are good and we are in condition green, the WTT uses 40% trailing stop losses.
See here we are positioned to allow some volatility and still continue to let it grow higher.
In the below chart, the stop loss is currently down at $4.83. See the plus sign (+).
[The chart is MicroVision for you phone guys.]
View attachment 8865
Ha. I just went and looked up what TNA is. I'm not sure my comments are appropriate for that vehicle.Haha I have to laugh. I have been putting a little bit of $ in TNA recently sitting on some gains, that’s a warning I usually lose any gains I sit on. Maybe it’s different this time.
I think the biggest mistake traders make is to take profits too early. But, yeah, sometimes that means you give some back.
[Second biggest mistake is to sell losers too slowly. LOL.]
Haha I have to laugh. I have been putting a little bit of $ in TNA recently sitting on some gains, that’s a warning I usually lose any gains I sit on. Maybe it’s different this time.
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