2025 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

The Matt Smith in @Goldhedge 's prior post was interviewed by Mike Farris on a podcast:

I have not watched it, but based upon what I read of his X thread, it will be full of conjecture (possibly stated as fact).

Hmmm, think it's time to hop on board?

Silver Surges Above $34, As Bank Of America Primes The Mainstream For The Metals​

Silver Surges Above $34, As Bank Of America Primes The Mainstream For The Metals

Silver's back over $34 this morning. And in the midst of the latest leg of the rally, Bank of America just put out a report that's incredibly bullish on the metals, and is also being blasted to the mainstream investment audience now.

Vince gets you up to speed in this morning's show, and to find out more, click to watch the video now!

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COMEX is closed tomorrow for Presidents Day. But China and London will be open. It's going to be an interesting week given news about LBMA delivery delays and physical shortages in China's retail (bank to public) market.

The amount of gold moving from the Bank of England to the US is insane.

Josh believes every commercial flight from London to the US has had 2-4 tons of gold on it.

Overwhelming evidence that it's related to a DOGE Treasury audit. No news is reporting this

What's really going on here??


BANKERS HAVE BEEN USING THE CARGO HOLDS OF COMMERCIAL AIRPLANES LATELY TO TRANSPORT PALLETS OF GOLD TO AMERICA OUT OF FEAR OF TRUMP'S TARIFFS. HMM. CHEW ON THAT.

TRUMP WANTS THE GOLD BACK HERE IN AMERICA SO THAT THE BRICS NATIONS AND THE EU CAN'T USE IT AND WE CAN. TARIFFS WILL HELP BRING IT BACK. HE'S ALWAYS WANTED TO GO BACK TO THE GOLD STANDARD BUT THE TIMING HAS TO BE RIGHT AND WE HAVE TO HAVE THE GOLD HERE IN AMERICA.

THERE'S A REASON TRUMP IS CALLING HIS PLAN THE "GOLDEN" AGE OF AMERICA.

INDEPENDENT: Deep under London’s Threadneedle Street lies an intricate network of tunnels holding the world’s second-largest depository of gold.

The Bank of England’s nine heavily fortified vaults hold hundreds of tonS of the precious metal valued at more than £200 billion ($252 billion).

But now, they are slowly being emptied over fears that President Donald Trump is about to start a global trade war.

Much of the gold has been shipped to New York City where the commodity is, for the moment, worth substantially more than in the U.K. capital.

The U.S. bank JPMorgan and the U.K.’s HSBC are two of the biggest names flying the precious metal across the Atlantic to cover losses on short positions, reports the Wall Street Journal.

The disruption to the gold market, and subsequent movement of bullion from London to Manhattan, appears to be a consequence of Trump’s looming tariff threats against imports from the European Union entering the U.S.

Traders are now nervous that Trump will impose tariffs on gold.

Roughly 8,000 bars are believed to have been moved out of the Bank’s vaults over the past few months, equating to about two percent of its total stock.

Banks are, in essence, shorting the price of gold.

JPMorgan and HSBC – who have access to huge gold supplies in London – often lend out bullion to borrowers who need to use it as collateral. Interest is charged on the loan, with the banks hedging against price decreases by selling gold futures in New York.

In February alone, JPMorganChase is estimated to deliver more than $4 billion in gold against futures contracts in New York, according to Comex filings.

And, since Election Day when Trump defeated Harris, U.S. gold inventories have doubled.

Jetting the gold using the cargo hold of commercial flights is the cheapest way to transport it.

The gold is first shuttled to the airport in high-strength vans before being sent to Swiss refiners to recast – due to Comex contracts requiring different bar sizing – it before flying on to the U.S.

FINANCIAL TIMES: “People can’t get their hands on gold because so much has been shipped to New York, and the rest is stuck in the queue. Liquidity in the London market has been diminished.”

“There is a feeling that Trump could go across the board and impose new tariffs on raw materials coming into the US, including gold. There is a bit of a scramble among participants in the gold market to protect themselves.”

https://x.com/GreyRabbitFin/status/1888663061646729415…
https://x.com/GoldTelegraph_/status/1882919796339273896…
https://x.com/amconmag/status/1890135822894002559…
https://x.com/ShadowofEzra/status/1890975215460528230…

...
Metalor, one of the leading Swiss refineries, has recently introduced a per-oz surcharge on all its gold products due to shortages increasing the gold lease rate, the widening spread between spot and futures, and tariff-related factors.

Another major Swiss refinery, Argor-Heraeus, has suspended orders for all 50 gram and 100 gram minted gold bars. ...

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Silver says:

Gold lease rates blowing out today. London, we have a problem...

Pretty as a picture

Dow tumbles 800 points as market sell-off gains steam: Live updates​

Stocks sold off on Friday as new U.S. data sparked fear among investors over the state of the U.S. economy, leading them in a search for safer assets.

Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett reaffirmed his commitment to investing Saturday, even as his conglomerate continued accumulating cash reserves.

Berkshire’s cash pile hit $334.2 billion at the end of the fourth quarter, nearly double from $167.6 billion a year ago. That’s after Buffett has been a net seller over the last eight quarters, trimming his stakes in Apple, Bank of America, and Citigroup. The size of Berkshire’s stock portfolio has shrunk to $272 billion from $354 billion a year ago.
...

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Did they just sour on specific companies, or are they positioning for an economic downturn (ie. blood in the streets)?

pmbug said:

Did they just sour on specific companies, or are they positioning for an economic downturn (ie. blood in the streets)?

Click to expand...

Yes.