#silversqueeze

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New Delhi: India's gold and silver imports from its free trade agreement (FTA) partner UAE have skyrocketed 210 per cent to USD 10.7 billion in 2023-24 and there is a need to potentially revise the concessional customs duty rates under the pact to mitigate the arbitrage driving this surge, a report said on Monday. ...
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GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said the current import of gold and silver from the UAE is unsustainable as the UAE does not mine gold or silver or add sufficient value to imports.
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Further, the report stated that silver imports from the UAE increased multifold to USD 1.74 billion in 2023-24 from a meagre USD 29.2 million in 2022-23 due to India charging an 8 per cent duty under the CEPA versus a 15 per cent duty from other countries.

"The large 7 per cent tariff arbitrage resulted in a loss of revenue for India of Rs 1,010 crore in FY24. Revenue loss will increase as India has committed to make tariffs zero on unlimited quantities of silver from the UAE within next 8 years," it added.

It said this trade is unusual because the UAE just imports large silver and gold bars, melt and convert these into silver grains and unwrought gold for exports.
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On gold bars, the report said India agreed to import 200 metric tons of gold annually from the UAE with a 1 per cent tariff concession and due to this gold imports rose 147.6 per cent from USD 3 billion in FY23 to USD 7.6 billion in FY24, causing India to lose Rs 635 crore in revenue in FY24.
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https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/other/gold-silver-import-surges-210-in-2023-24/ar-BB1olLcA

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Imports of gold hit a three-month high of $3.33 billion in May, although this was 9.7% lower than the gold import bill a year ago. Gold imports had tripled year-on-year in April to $3.11 billion. The value of silver imports shot up by over 400% ...
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www.thehindu.com

Exports up 9% but trade gap widened in May

Editors pick Exports up 9% but trade gap widened in May
www.thehindu.com www.thehindu.com

I can't find a clear report on how many ounces/tonnes of silver were imported, but it seems like enough that the UAE is crying Uncle. :popcorn:
 
One of the second-tier podcasts, not sure which one - Man in America, or similar - lesser-known ones...one had a former government insider on, who was talking in passing, about silver.

His assertion is, there are several TONS of silver into each cruise missile being launched or given to You Crane. Upon "use" of each of these missiles, the silver is lost - vaporized.

So for that reason, the "Defense" Department is working with Treasury and major banksters to keep the manipulated price of silver, DOWN - to enable warmongers, er, defense contractors, to obtain needed material at a needed price.

Prices will only be allowed up to keep pace with "inflation" (officially-claimed rates) as a pressure-relief and to prevent wholesale rebellion in the world silver markets.

Thoughts? Likely? Pure BS? I have no way of validating this.
 
Casey Jones said:
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His assertion is, there are several TONS of silver into each cruise missile ...
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Thoughts? Likely? Pure BS? I have no way of validating this.
Click to expand...

It's TONS now? Last I saw, the claim making the rounds of social media was 500 ounces. Of course, no one can produce any documentation or evidence to support the claim.

What I know to be true though, is that the government is having to source silver on the open market so they do have an interest in buying silver as cheap as possible:

https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-demand-drivers.6364/post-101889
 
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pmbug said:
It's TONS now? Last I saw, the claim making the rounds of social media was 500 ounces. Of course, no one can produce any documentation or evidence to support the claim.
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I hear ya. The amount grows with repetition.

The asserter was a finance guy, not a munitions engineer, so he's probably not given the exact specs. Also he was talking to a non-technical audience. Perhaps he meant per-quantity ordered - since most military contracts are for batch lots. That even holds true for things like vehicles - I used to use old Postal jeeps as beater trucks. On the manufacturer's plate, they had the purchase-order number. There weren't model years, there was year of bid, and date of delivery.

So, to silver...the amount is in question. But lack of specifics, doesn't surprise me - if someone were asserting specifics, I'd be more suspicious. These are DEFENSE contractors - controlling leaks is the critical key to their business. Congressional graft, through to cost-plus bids, on to delivery, quality that may or may not meet bid specifics...it all comes down to controlling information.

Important factor here is, it represents a "vital interest" to the government (the MIC, actually) in controlling the price of silver. I'm inclined to believe it, in the general if not in the exact specifics.
 
A cruise missile weighs 3300 lbs. So, several tons of silver per would be very interesting unless they have figured out anti gravity.
 
pmbug said:
It's TONS now? Last I saw, the claim making the rounds of social media was 500 ounces. Of course, no one can produce any documentation or evidence to support the claim.

What I know to be true though, is that the government is having to source silver on the open market so they do have an interest in buying silver as cheap as possible:

https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-demand-drivers.6364/post-101889
Click to expand...
It was 100oz in the cruise missiles from the gulf war. The old block point missiles have likely had weight savings and electronics updates since then. So it’s likely less than 100oz per cruise missile now. Wouldn’t surprise me if they squeeze out half the content in the last 30 years of upgrades.
 
Here's the thread Sal mentioned:

www.pmbug.com

Al Jazeera: Each cruise missile contains 15 kg of silver

Old report from when we were bombing Libya:Note each cruise missile contains approx. 15kg of silver in wiring, contacts, solder and batteries. http://ausbullion.blogspot.com/2011/03/1650kg-of-silver-fired-at-libya-to.html Now you can impress your friends with trivia when the Tomahawks start...
www.pmbug.com www.pmbug.com
 


Second day in a row SFE increases vault holdings. This time by nearly 50%!
 
I don't know where it came from but mines don't stop producing. Not yet anyway. One of the reasons I don't get overly excited about the vault numbers around the world. Some months the numbers go down but other months they get refilled.
On a positive note, silver has had a very nice run this year so far. Even a pullback to the 26 level would be very positive for the metal if it holds. That will be the level where I add to miners.
 


It appears that the silver flowing in to the SFE vaults last week came from the SGE vaults. The price of silver in China is climbing again and the SFE vaults are draining again.
 
chi.gif
 
Update on India's silver imports:
India's silver imports are on course to nearly double this year due to rising demand from solar panel and electronics makers, and as investors bet the metal will give better returns than gold, leading importers said on Friday.

Higher imports by the world's biggest silver consumer could give further support to global prices , which are close to their highest level in more than a decade. India imported 3,625 metric tons of the white metal last year.

This year's purchases could rise to between 6,500 and 7,000 tons due to the rising industrial demand, said Chirag Thakkar, CEO of Amrapali Group Gujarat, a leading silver importer.

India's silver imports in the first half of 2024 jumped to 4,554 tons from 560 tons a year ago, trade ministry data showed.
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Silver prices rise above $31.00, fueled by robust Indian festive demand and a significant reduction in import duties from 15% to 6%.

India’s silver imports surged to $1.33 billion in August 2024, marking a sharp increase from $158 million during the same period in 2023.
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www.fxempire.com

Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Strong Indian Demand and Duties Drive Prices Higher

Silver prices climb on robust Indian demand, driven by festive seasons and lower import duties. Is a breakout above $31.45 next?
www.fxempire.com
 
Yesterday silver -5%, is it a long or short term downturn?
Western silver has been following Shanghai's with a 10-12% discount for some time now, so the answer to that question lays in China.
imo
 


~33.42 currently in China. I expect that will rise if expectations of big stimulus efforts in China come true...
 
Peter89 said:
Yesterday silver -5%, is it a long or short term downturn?
Western silver has been following Shanghai's with a 10-12% discount for some time now, so the answer to that question lays in China.
imo
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I have a few things I have been thinking about that I will share.
1st, China has announced billions in stimulus. That should be positive for the metals but it hasn't been yet.
Silver chart doesn't look so good. It's been in a nice channel since July and has now broken to the downside. However there is a longer uptrend since about February that is still intact. If it drops down to that uptrend line that will put us around 29.80. If that doesn't hold then 26 is in play and that has a lot of support. If 26 doesn't hold then this bull market is finished. For now anyway. I know that sounds crazy but this leads me to some other thoughts.

I'll refer to this next portion as the Trump effect but keep in mind I am really talking about Trump, Musk, RFK jr, and Ron Paul.
I do believe they want to do what's right for the country. Spending us into bankruptcy isn't the right thing to do. I think they all know that. There's been lots of talk about taking a chainsaw to the federal government. Talk is cheap but Musk isn't getting involved to do anything less. He has billions at stake and he certainly doesn't want to see that vanish via inflation or hyperinflation. Also, notice the dollar shot up after the election so maybe the street is paying attention to what is being said by them as well. Slashing government spending and paying down the debt by even a small amount is going to keep the dollar strong and metals going lower.

The big question is can they do it? Slashing government jobs and cutting spending should be deflationary. Unemployment will go higher in the short term until the economy can ramp up here in the US via manufacturing that comes back from Asia because of tariffs.

It's going to be a hell of a battle. Short term pain which no politician wants to sign off on but is absolutely needed. If anyone can do it trump can. Once he gets the spending issue sorted out then he can move on to eliminating the income tax which will supercharge the economy that is being built as stated above.

I don't have the answers to any of the above. If things happen the way I state then I would sell my metals and my mining shares now but I'm not. IMO it's too early to tell if he will get any of that done. I also think there will be major resistance from congress on all of that.
The US government reducing spending and paying down debt would be disastrous for the metals but great for the country. I'll take it but I'm not getting rid of my metals just yet. Let's see what kind of real plan he puts out there.
 
pmbug said:


~33.42 currently in China. I expect that will rise if expectations of big stimulus efforts in China come true...
Click to expand...

Thanks PMB
being blocked out of X I miss a lot the updates of Oriental Gost about China's prices.

Record imports of silver from India, stimulus or not China is going to keep importing - did you hear the news, they are buying concentrate direct from the miners in South America! -, Russia are going to build silver reserves through their sovereign funds.
Not worried at all!


@Cigarlover I agree on everything, but imo you are considering pm price as a function of US policy/economy. This is less and less the case. Brics are impacting more and more pm prices.
 
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One thing to keep in mind about US (future Trump) policy is the potential impact on the EV and solar panel industries. Musk will likely advocate to Trump to keep the govco $$$ flowing for these "green" industries (because Tesla), but I suspect Trump is going to favor cutting back on the subsidies these industries have been enjoying under Biden. Lower demand in the USA for EVs and solar could effect how much silver China and India import for manufacturing.
 
There is no way the debt will get paid down in any significant amoint in 4 years. They need to balance the budget first.
 
nickndfl said:
There is no way the debt will get paid down in any significant amoint in 4 years. They need to balance the budget first.
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I could get it done in 2 years if I had the power.
Peter89 said:
@Cigarlover I agree on everything, but imo you are considering pm price as a function of US policy/economy. This is less and less the case. Brics are impacting more and more pm prices.
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That can be dealt with pretty easily. Right now China bans the exports of precious metals. We can do the same in the west. In fact we should do that now. Why are we sending our wealth to the east? Makes no sense. They can buy our treasuries instead. :).
We have the entire north and south American continents. More than enough people want to work and more than enough resources to get everything done. We need to build relationships with all of America and work out free trade deals with all of them to compete with China and the Brics nations. We could also set up an agency in the Americas that would vet a potential workforce and once vetted would be allowed to freely travel and work in any country in the Americas. Perhaps with a special work passport of visa. So we basically create localized manufacturing in both the east and west. We divide the world in 2 basically and hopefully work towards prosperity for all.
The west and east would also have their own currencies to go along with their economies and thus the metals would trade independently of each other in both locations.
 
I'd be interested to see a graph of pricing between the east and west and see what the trend is. IIRC the price disparity was about 5% a month ago. Now around 10%. So, if you're in the east with rising prices you're happy. In the west with falling prices, not so happy.

Unfortunately we have government agencies working against us in the US by raising margin requirements. Not sure how the Shanghai system works.
To your point of the brics impacting pricing more and more, it appears to be true if you're in the east, not so much if your in the west.
 
Cigarlover said:
We need to build relationships with all of America and work out free trade deals with all of them to compete with China and the Brics nations.
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We have very limited natural resources - and even less the capacity of extracting and processing them. Importing natural resources from East is much cheaper and more efficient than from West.
On the other hand, Brazil is part of Brics. China has a much better standing with many LA countries as they don't have the tradition of killing leaders who don't follow Washington orders.
So, you say 2 blocks, Americas and East, but imo it'd probably ends up with the 2 blocks USA/Canada vs. rest of the world : )
 
Yes I imagine 2 core blocks and probably several countries that will stay somewhat neutral. The west will certainly have more than the US and Canada. Most of Europe will also stay in the swift system but I can see a few that could use both systems. In central and South America I can see Costa Rica using both systems but Brazil will go with the east as you said. El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Ecuador, Belize, Chile, Argentina, and maybe Bolivia and Uraguay. Cuba is collapsing and it wouldn't take much to bring them back into the side of the US. I think it would be a mistake to allow them to go with Russia and China. They are to close to home. It's really the Cubans in Miami preventing anything from happening there rn. They are still pissed Castro stole their shit.
Mexico will ultimately side with the US as well. I don't know enough about Guyana and Surinam but Paraguay will also probably go to the east.

In the East I would imagine the Philippines and India will side with the US. Although I could also see India using both system. Most of Africa will also go to China. They have been working relations there pretty hard.

For now none of this matters since Brics isn't ready for prime time yet. Maybe by mid 2030's it could be fully rolled out. Probably continue to trade in local currencies for now on a limited basis. Once China has completed the Belt and road initiative they should be ready to take on the role of the leader in the east.

These are my opinions of course, for moving the planet forward in a way that is non confrontational. Shut down the military industrial complex and convert them over to manufacturing household items instead or innovations for space. Plenty for them to do without building missiles.

We could add pages to this plant I'll wait to write more until After Elon and Trump see these posts and contact me about it. :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
 
Peter89 said:
@Cigarlover I agree on everything, but imo you are considering pm price as a function of US policy/economy. This is less and less the case. Brics are impacting more and more pm prices.
Click to expand...



While we keep talking about China/India/Russia... the UAE is becoming a major price setting factor.
They don't have an Exchange, it's more like the London market.

gulfnews.com

UAE will be Asia's gold hub in BRICS' new economic corridor: Bin Sulayem

UAE has already gone past London as world's second biggest gold trade centre
gulfnews.com gulfnews.com
 
Dubai's gold trade was boosted by India favoring them with lower import duties than anywhere else.
 
Peter89 said:
They don't have an Exchange, it's more like the London market.
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Wrong, they have one: The Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange (“DGCX”).
Last year the launched the region’s first Shari’ah Compliant Silver Spot Contract.
Interestingly they have their own “UAE Good Delivery” bar specification.

2023 they launched their first Shari’ah Compliant Silver Spot Contract
The underlying asset of each DSSC contract, which has been Certified by prominent Shari’ah scholars, is a 999.9 purity 900-ounce silver bar of “UAE Good Delivery” specification. Delivery of the contract is made seamlessly through DMCC Tradeflow, a flexible and customised online platform to register possession and ownership of commodities stored in UAE-based facilities
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DGCX Launches GCC’s First Shari’ah Compliant Silver Spot Contract

The Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange announced the launch of the GCC’s first Shari’ah Compliant Silver Spot Contract, aimed at providing investors with a reliant and transparent platform for trading the white metal
www.dgcx.ae www.dgcx.ae


pmbug said:
Dubai's gold trade was boosted by India favoring them with lower import duties than anywhere else.
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So they import gold from London - at spot - and export it to India - at spot.
How do they make money?
 
Peter89 said:
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So they import gold from London - at spot - and export it to India - at spot.
How do they make money?
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^^ "The answer is simple. Volume."

~~

I assume that there must be some arbitrage in the import duty (ie. spot + import duty from London < spot + export duty to India).
 
pmbug said:
I assume that there must be some arbitrage in the import duty (ie. spot + import duty from London < spot + export duty to India).
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This or the spot price applies only to little players whereas serious ones trade it at a different rate (as confirmed by gold broker A. Maguire).
 
I think one day this will apply to silver, if not in NY/London at least in Shanghai.
That day will be silversqueeze day : )


1732725538951.png


But nervousness about supply has grown in recent weeks, with data showing that a single entity bought more than half of the readily available stock in the LME’s warehousing network.
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www.bnnbloomberg.ca

Zinc Rises as Orders to Withdraw Metal From LME Warehouses Surge

Zinc extended gains into a third session as orders to withdraw stockpiles from London Metal Exchange warehouses hit the highest in more than seven years.
www.bnnbloomberg.ca www.bnnbloomberg.ca

... a single entity bought more than half of the readily available stock in the LME’s warehousing network...
:)

btw Santa Cruz Silver, Silver X and Impact Silver a.o. are silver/zinc producers.
Just saying : )
 
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