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AEP - Telegraph said:
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The federal government is unable to fund this scale of borrowing from U.S. domestic savings, and global creditors are no longer willing to fund it either at bearable cost.
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Real rates are rocketing, driven by a sudden jump in the "term premium." Think of it as a credit crunch being imposed upon a feckless political class in Washington by global bond vigilantes.
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A very slow-burning fuse has finally, and suddenly, reached the powder keg, confirming the Dornbusch adage that financial crises always take longer than you think, but then unfold much faster than you expected.

Bernard Connolly, the world's foremost Wicksellian economist, says the U.S. fiscal bubble is the latest in a long string of bubbles required to keep Western economies above water. "If the fiscal deficit is reduced, the Federal Reserve will have to collapse interest rates," he said.

As the international capital markets pull the plug on U.S. fiscal incontinence, the Fed will again have to come to the rescue. It will have to restore negative real rates and blanket the debt markets with quantitative easing à outrance, or risk an economic depression. This in turn will launch the next QE bubble. ...
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Or if you want a plain-vanilla defence against spiralling deficits and financial repression, just buy gold.
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Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Why the Fed will again have to slash rates to zero and relaunch QE | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee | Exposing the long-term manipulation of the gold market

gata.org gata.org
 
Lancers32 said:
RIP Jim Sinclair. 82 seems kinda young.

guildinvestment.substack.com

The Gold Community Loses an Icon: James E. Sinclair, 1941–2023

An icon dedicated to sharing his vital financial wisdom has passed. Jim Sinclair was a titan of the precious metals world -- a titan both in terms of intellect, and in his commitment to sound money based on real, tangible assets.
guildinvestment.substack.com guildinvestment.substack.com
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I never understood why Jim stopped posting after the last bull run ending in 2011. I wished he had prices and timelines in mind for this bull run we are in now. Regardless, he will be missed.
 
jelly said:
I never understood why Jim stopped posting after the last bull run ending in 2011. I wished he had prices and timelines in mind for this bull run we are in now. Regardless, he will be missed.
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I found it funny that when Sinclair did post and it wasn't much that some idiots wanted to hear what Bill Holter was saying.
 
Zed said:
Sh!t, is that a starting gun I hear?
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Black swan events don't alter the fundamentals, and seem to dance around the technicals, but that starting gun is a wake up call for sure. Everyone becomes complacent while they drift off into dreams. Reality is a bitch.
 
jelly said:
I never understood why Jim stopped posting ...
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I seem to remember him posting something about old age/health issues as well as being busy focusing on his Tanzania mining company as reasons around the time he brought Holter on board.
 
If the HUI can get back above the 210 area, I’d feel safe calling the bottom being in.
 
Sinclair is who got me interested in PM's. He was in his early 80's if I recall?

Not sure why but TRX started rising on the news...

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Bill Holter is found here: https://billholter.com/
 
Yeah, its' been down. Naked shorting was the explanation.

TRX has plenty of gold, but it's not refined. I forget the term, but they avoid paying taxes because of it.

Here is Holter's latest.

He's always said: "What happens when credit dies? Everything runs on credit."



October 8, 2023

A Crash of Biblical Proportions is Imminent !​

Bills Commentary :
I believe a crash of Biblical proportions is now imminent. When I say “crash”, I am speaking of stocks, bonds, and real estate, and thus it will lead to breakdown of society. Stocks averages have been held up by only a handful of stocks, very similar to the Nifty Fifty, 1987, the Dot-com bubble, and 2008-09. The averages themselves are now rolling over. Credit markets (bonds) have already been destroyed. Treasury-Bond Collapse Ranks Among the Worst Market Crashes in History (businessinsider.com)

The reality is that credit has already crashed and it is the ONLY market that really matters. The credit markets have been in the worst bear market bonds have ever experienced in all of history. The simple reason is that rates started upward from zero, “zero coupon bonds” are THE most volatile of all. Essentially, the entire world became a financial “zero coupon bond”, the resulting rate rise is absolute death for the entire system. Everything is levered and this time around the “debt saturation trap” includes nearly all central banks and sovereign treasuries. Central banks and sovereign treasuries still had room to expand credit in 2008-09, balance sheets today are blown out everywhere! If you know nothing about macro finance, please understand that credit (bonds) are the “foundation” to EVERYTHING in today’s world… the foundation has cracked! Everything “financial” is based on credit, and more importantly, the “real world” ( production, distribution etc.) is entirely based on credit. Any stoppage of credit anywhere in the world will begin to snowball and engulf ALL credit. Nothing, NOTHING that you now do in your everyday life will be the same, or maybe not even function at all when credit is no longer available. Credit is entirely based on confidence and this con game is over!

more
billholter.com

Welcome To Bill Holter

billholter.com billholter.com
 
Looks like middle east conflict is driving some action in the metals in early trading...
 
jelly said:
Back when he started having health issues, I wondered if it was because of his ownership of this company, causing stress and anxiety.
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According to Insider Sales he was selling the stock all of the time. Salary expenses who knows?
 
Feels like nobody wants to mention the thing. Or nobody knows the "appropriate" place to mention the thing.

Or maybe it's just me.

[Is it a market issue? A political issue? Both? Neither? Or is everything connected?]
 
dpong said:
Feels like nobody wants to mention the thing. ...
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Israel? News and political comments on the issue go here:

www.pmbug.com

Unrest in Israel

www.pmbug.com www.pmbug.com

If you want to talk about market reactions to it, this thread is fine or you could start a dedicated thread in this forum room if you prefer.
 
Maybe we'll find a use for gold and silver to make missiles fly...
 
Market started off on the downside today because of the ME news. Pretty obvious. Looked like the close was pretty strong though. It's the kind of action I would expect after a big green candle day Friday. Lots of news this week so still a long way to go.
If the data this week shows inflation being sticky or persistent than I expect the markets should continue higher.
Silver looks like it could go either way right now. I'm betting higher but that just based on yearly timing and metals typically starting to do better this time of year. Mining shares seemed to do little all day then right before the close they showed some signs of life. Not sure what that was all about. Traders off today for the holiday?
 
Cigarlover said:
... Traders off today for the holiday?
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I suspect many are waiting on some clarity on the middle east (how it will impact geopolitics and oil) and the Speaker of the House mess (impacting America's ability to govern).
 
1900-1915 looks like next resistance on gold. We get above that and it's back in the long term consolidation channel started in March of this year.Screen Shot 2023-10-10 at 8.59.02 AM.png
 
Got the AI pop this morning that I was looking for. I'm done with it for now. In this market I'm just trying for base hits. My target was 26. It's exceeding that now but I'm always happy to take profits.
Ag on the other hand is a steaming pile of elephant shit.
Screen Shot 2023-10-10 at 10.02.04 AM.png
 
A.) Yields are up slightly today. IE the TLT long bond fund is down.
B.) If that was really driving this PM's would be way up

This is just another giant attempted PPT short squeeze to hold up their game for another day.
 
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