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jelly said:
EXK just decimated. Cut in nearly half in just 10 weeks, while silver went from $25 to $21. What a steep decline!

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Makes no sense when every green manufacturer out there needs silver to produce solar panels and EV's. Unless of course they short the heck out of it to buy physical cheap. I'm sure they can use JPM to handle things for them.
I've also recently tripled my position size with them. Take it down to a buck and I'll do it again. :)
 
Newmont is the bellwether of the gold miners. Currently looks ultra bearish, complete failure of the support line.

However if NEM can get back above that line this week, I think we have a bottom and reversal. But until then, this breakdown could mean we have months to go before we get any relief in gold.
IMG_8326.png
 
Yeah it looks pretty bad but when the time comes to buy it ain't gonna look good.
 
Folks - we have a political forum for political talk. I've moved a bunch of posts from this thread over the last 5 or so pages to a new thread in the political forum:

www.pmbug.com

The Lunatic Fringe - Political Chat

www.pmbug.com www.pmbug.com

If you want to share political commentary, jokes, memes, etc. Please share in the appropriate place. Thanks.
 
Counter-point to the bond market doom cycle:
The U.S. economy could be close to a tipping point as bond yields see a bear steepening across the curve, with the long end rising sharply this week.

Although gold continues to see some strong selling pressure, analysts note that the precious metal remains relatively resilient as long-term U.S. bonds continue to rise. Wednesday, 30-year yields rose to a high of 5%, its highest level since August 2007; at the same time, 10-year yields are trading around 4.8%, a fresh 16-year high.

Meanwhile, gold is managing to hold initial support above $1,830 an ounce. December gold futures last traded at $1840.10 an ounce, roughly neutral on the day.

Analysts have noted that the rise in bond yields is creating a market environment similar to that of previous recessionary periods.

"I feel things in 4Q 2023 are shaping up like some combination of 1987, with the bond price collapse before the stock market crash, and 2008, when crude oil peaked," said Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. "In 2008, gold went from about $1,000 an ounce down to $700, before embarking on the rally to the 2011 high around $1,900. I see parallels. Gold ETF outflows, I think, are partially due to the overwhelming force of the US government 2yr note above 5% and most inflation measures declining below 5%. The sell-off in treasuries, I think, is a last gasp aligned with the spike in crude oil."

While bond yields do have room to move higher, analysts have said that they are probably getting close to a peak, particularly as the U.S. labor market starts to cool.

Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets, said markets will be sensitive to disappointing economic data ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls report. The comments come after private payrolls processor ADP said that the private sector added only 89,000 jobs last month, significantly missing expectations.

Aslam added that he sees bond yields reaching a peak, even as the Federal Reserve continues to maintain its restrictive monetary policies for the foreseeable future.
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More:

www.kitco.com

This could be the last gasp of the bond market selloff, which will be bullish for gold prices

Kitco News' general-interest stories takes a look at what is making headlines in the marketplace and how that is impacting precious metals prices
www.kitco.com
 
Pacific Investment Management Co. co-founder and erstwhile “bond king” Bill Gross no longer thinks bonds are an attractive investment, but at least they’re better than stocks.

In any case, he doesn’t recommend investing in either for the long term at these levels.

“I’d pass on stocks and bonds in terms of future total returns,” Gross said in his latest investment outlook, which was released Wednesday.

Instead, Gross suggested that investors embrace slightly more sophisticated strategies, like merger-arbitrage plays — that is, when traders take a position in, or bet against, a stock that’s involved in a pending transaction.
...
Why is Gross so bearish? Simply put, rising Treasury yields mean stocks are now looking overvalued based on their forward earnings.

He cited a chart from Goldman Sachs Group analysts that he may have modified to illustrate a troubling divergence between forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 index and the level of real yields, which represent bond yields after being adjusted for inflation.

“As the updated Goldman Sachs chart shown below might suggest, S&P 500 forward P/E multiples have for the last 5 years been correlated to real 10 year Treasury yields with the exception of the last 12 months or so,” Gross said.

Based on where yields are now, the forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 should be closer to 12x, instead of its current level, which according to FactSet is just under 18x.

When it comes to bonds, Gross’s bearishness stems from the expectation that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell won’t be able to meaningfully lower interest rates any time soon with inflation seemingly stuck at a rate north of 3%.

“Personally, I don’t believe Powell will be willing or able to lower short rates significantly in the face of a 3% inflation future,” he said.
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www.marketwatch.com

'Bond king' Bill Gross says investors should shun stocks and bonds. Here's what he's buying instead.

Pacific Investment Management Co. co-founder and erstwhile "bond king" Bill Gross no longer thinks bonds are an attractive investment, but at least they're...
www.marketwatch.com www.marketwatch.com
 
rubino.substack.com

Japan Is In That Box

Is this the first major country to implode?
rubino.substack.com rubino.substack.com

People keep talking about the “box” in which profligate countries will someday find themselves, where the tools that used to work no longer do and everything falls apart.

Japan might be in that box. After years of soaring government debt and central bank “financial repression” to make that debt manageable, it now finds itself in the following situation:
 

The collapse in Treasury bonds now ranks among the worst market crashes in history​

  • Since March 2020, Treasury bonds with maturities of 10 years or more have plummeted 46%, Bloomberg says.
  • That's just under losses seen in the stock market when the dot-com bubble burst.
  • The bond rout is worse than the one seen in 1981 when the 10-year yield neared 16%
https://markets.businessinsider.com...selloff-market-crashes-dot-com-bubble-2023-10
 
...
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 for the month, better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 170,000 and more than 100,000 higher than the previous month, the Labor Department said Friday in a much-anticipated report. The unemployment rate was 3.8%, compared to the forecast for 3.7%.
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Investors have been on edge lately that a resilient economy could force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high and perhaps even hike more as inflation remains elevated.
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JPow says, "raise the rates!"
 
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Nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 for the month, better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 170,000 and more than 100,000 higher than the previous month, the Labor Department said Friday in a much-anticipated report. The unemployment rate was 3.8%, compared to the forecast for 3.7%.
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so payrolls increased above expectation and the unemployment rate was higher than expectation .........

Am I missing something ?
 
Screenshot 2023-10-06 at 8.55.46 AM.png

Psychotic Tape: Moved to Cash​

Dr. Fly Fri Oct 6, 2023 9:52am EST Leave a comment

I gave it the olde college try, went fully long stocks and was in the rainbow themed parade with the rest of the transgendered bulls — but was disgusted by what I saw and left immediately.

I had only one small hedge, which was SHORT TREASURIES, because Pax Americana is over. Much to my chagrin, at the open of trade my PNL plunged to the tune of 0.75%, so I quickly bought a 20% weighted $SQQQ position and then shot all but one of my longs.

I’m now happy to report my losses are just 19bps for the session, which is a statement itself disgusting. It’s like saying “I only got mugged 3 times living in the big city and my wife and I really love all of the diverse and ethnic foods, really delicious — and oh my favorite food is Jamaican.”

INCORRECT.

I’m not happy at all with being down 19bps and will seek vengeance in short order.

But for now, I’m 95% cash.

 
Truth Testing Inflation With Reality
The latest from Daniel Amerman
There is a fundamental and mandatory aspect of inflation that most investors do not take into account: one cannot understate inflation without simultaneously overstating inflation-adjusted wealth creation.

As will be explored in this analysis, a very good way of determining whether inflation statistics are accurate is to measure the degree of physical (not market) wealth creation, and see whether it can pass a reasonableness test. This same approach can be used to test the reasonableness of different inflation assumptions, in terms of whether they are too high or too low. Indeed, as demonstrated herein, we can determine a range for actual inflation through comparisons to physical goods creation.

(In the workshop section (below the asterisks), there is a broader discussion of current fast-moving financial events.)

Read the analysis:

http://danielamerman.com/va/ccc/L4TruthTest.html
 
Weekend Trend Trader just sold UUUU (Energy Fuels Inc) for +3.22% gain.

It closed below the stop loss level of 8.12.

UUUU_2023-10-06_16-12-28.png
 
Lots of big green candles today. Looks like a reversal to me but lets see what next week brings. I did start buying call options for Nov based on todays action. Ag and AI. Plenty of time to get a nice pop.
 
pmbug said:
JPow says, "raise the rates!"
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I'm starting to think that the crowd that believe this extremely rapid move up in rates has less to do with domestic policy and more to do with 'weaponizing the USD' have a very valid point. The move has the potential to crush competing economies like China and while it will damage the domestic economy, the USA will be FAR better positioned to rise from the ashes in much better shape than its competition. This really looks like economic war at this point. So the day we see China crumble is potentially the day that rates will come off.

Historically, hot wars follow this sort of economic action. Hopefully China will not be able to achieve that.

This may also speak to the Chinese going for full public support of the gold market with this latest move to include gold in everyone's investment universe via the banking platform.

Is this just war?
 
Zed said:
Yeah, I'm looking a few candles that have that reversal look... I'm just too scared to post anything in case I invite the wrath of the gods.
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I bought more junk today Gold and Silver. They just have a sold out look this week. Uranium kicked up off the lows from early this week. I like them if you can withstand a drawdown if the late week surge is reversed.
 
RIP Jim Sinclair. 82 seems kinda young.

guildinvestment.substack.com

The Gold Community Loses an Icon: James E. Sinclair, 1941–2023

An icon dedicated to sharing his vital financial wisdom has passed. Jim Sinclair was a titan of the precious metals world -- a titan both in terms of intellect, and in his commitment to sound money based on real, tangible assets.
guildinvestment.substack.com guildinvestment.substack.com
 
Lancers32 said:
RIP Jim Sinclair. 82 seems kinda young.

guildinvestment.substack.com

The Gold Community Loses an Icon: James E. Sinclair, 1941–2023

An icon dedicated to sharing his vital financial wisdom has passed. Jim Sinclair was a titan of the precious metals world -- a titan both in terms of intellect, and in his commitment to sound money based on real, tangible assets.
guildinvestment.substack.com guildinvestment.substack.com
Click to expand...

Well, once upon a time it seemed ancient... but these days it seems a tad bit younger. Feels like I will be 82 by next Thursday...?! Years are passing so fast!!!!
 
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