The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

Welcome to the Precious Metals Bug Forums

Welcome to the PMBug forums - a watering hole for folks interested in gold, silver, precious metals, sound money, investing, market and economic news, central bank monetary policies, politics and more.

Why not register an account and join the discussions? When you register an account and log in, you may enjoy additional benefits including no Google ads, market data/charts, access to trade/barter with the community and much more. Registering an account is free - you have nothing to lose!

Status
Not open for further replies.
Looks like they stopped the market fall... for now....
 

The data is consistently reported across the industry. I assume you can pull it up on a Bloomberg. Hedgeye says similar and they are anti-establishment.
 
This environment is now 'sell the fvcken rip'. The game is get the little guys bearish squeeze them short then sell them short on the covering rally. Rinse then repeat until the dumb money is wrung dry. @Voodoo buy a clue mate, you are fighting pirates.
 

And winning, well at least a draw so far.

If you notice I did sell the rip.... Clearly you did not watch the interview either. Certainly some interesting cycles coming together. I had already written down the Same day he pointed to for GME. That happens to be exactly T+91 days since their Dividend that the DTCC pretty much illegally told people was a split.

I'll let you know how it looks in a week or two. It is a lower probability trade with potential Big rewards.
 
And winning, well at least a draw so far.

Fine... but MOST of the retail accounts are run by NUMPTIES... as are a lot of the funds, but then there is the pirates and shills. Every shill is calling a crash, I've never seen a crash that has been widely called actually happen. 2c FWIW.
 
If you want a proxy for retail shorting pull up a bear ETF and look @ OBV.
 
Screams buy some Put protection yet you claim that is for suckers. Try some consistency for a change eh mate?

Nope, I didn't say that, I said something different...

Work on your comprehension BEFORE you take a shot eh?
 
@Voodoo you do understand that there is a lot of ground between a crash and bear market? You do get that options are time sensitive and that 80%+ of them expire worthless? You do get that the more ups and downs this has on the way down the more that The Street makes off of retail? You do understand that retail, due to small account size are ALWAYS the weak hands? AKA sell the rip when they get squeezed?

BTW you'd be better off selling calls on rips than buying puts... on average 80% of what you sell you will keep. That is a good return.

Currently everything that is driving this market is known, crashes come from the unexpected, the Fed is signalling hard so unless you are betting on a nuke going off or a major bankruptcy that the CDS market and the stock market are not discounting you have to ask yourself what do I know that the market doesn't? For most all retail accounts the answer to that is nothing!

Sure buy dirt cheap way out of the money puts just in case Europe go bang... but insurance isn't a great trading strategy over all. For the rest I'm pointing out that put's are a crowded trade at the moment and most all of the time crowded trades don't pay. Maybe this time... but...?!
 
Last edited:
Also, typically when you buy an option you are up against a "market maker" providing liquidity for you to trade.

Meaning that

A.) The computer you trade with has calculated a lobsided deal in its favor given current volatility.
B.) The computer that you trade with will hedge it's book. (programmed not to lose!)
C.) The computer that you trade with will defend itself if a crowed expiry is coming up. (get long it's book to trigger a rally near option expiry)
D.) This is Vegus and generally you are going against the house in the options market.

So you need to write a strategy that wins more than it loses, simply buying an option isn't that... 80% expire worthless!
 
Last edited:
Have a friend that does the programming of the trading computers. He is not allowed to own much in way of investments...... He is paid VERY WELL!
 
the new territories that were part of the referendum are now part of Russia

the nazi zelenski regime is responsible for around 17,000 deaths in the Donbas Region since deviant Zelenski was installed in a cia run coup

if nato now attacked those regions they are now attacking Russia and Vlad said all options are open when it comes to protecting Russia

it is easy to see a place like Kiev going up in nuclear smoke to send a message to nato and the western elites
 
Nobody wants to die not even the insane leaders in the West. I think one of those Azov guys takes Mr. Green on a little trip. Watch the video he made today the guy is unhinged. Russia brigs in the planes does some damage gets the East South and Odessa. Ukraine if it even around is landlocked.
 
What's the story on the Bloomberg Terminal... 'until now'...?
 
What's the story on the Bloomberg Terminal... 'until now'...?

A seemingly free OpenBB terminal, apparently emulating a Bloomberg device and feed.

Glossy 'PDF'

Pricing. Free for now. Pro version up-and-coming.

Golden Regards
Uncle
 

Thanks, I understand all this. This is a crash prediction that could pay off big time. If not I'm out a couple k.
 
Currently everything that is driving this market is known,

This is crap that comes from the efficient market theory's. So bad. Markets trade primarily on emotions and those are predictable and do occur in the same patterns.
 

No kidding, I bought the options from a market maker...

A.) At that moment in time-sure. But this isn't a 3 sec scalp trade so we're good.
B.) Excellent, because it helps my trade (too bad I'm not running Archecos size book) and there would otherwise be no market
C.) The computer has no idea where we will be in a week or two
D.) Sure, I said this is a low probability trade and I don't buy far OTM options often. But that is the right move for this prediction

Stop just looking at math and do a little research. The math is for quant geeks who can't think. Oh, and I'm already up a few % points and about to be quite a bit more when the market opens.
 
Not lookin' real good.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more…