The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

Welcome to the Precious Metals Bug Forums

Welcome to the PMBug forums - a watering hole for folks interested in gold, silver, precious metals, sound money, investing, market and economic news, central bank monetary policies, politics and more.

Why not register an account and join the discussions? When you register an account and log in, you may enjoy additional benefits including no Google ads, market data/charts, access to trade/barter with the community and much more. Registering an account is free - you have nothing to lose!

Status
Not open for further replies.
On second thought... there is another possible explanation - the rally in gold is being driven by central banks and they don't invest in miners. The rest of the market has not yet bought in or realized that the central banks are setting a new floor.
 
Well good kinda of petered out today and the miners did not see much follow through on the breakout... But their Direct competition fell outta bed.



Looks like this is gonna at least test $35 lows. One chart pointed me to $29. I'm sad that I had a bunch of Puts that all expired today. Just got in too early and went too far out of the money, a bunch of RCL, and NVDA, and some others.
 
Could also be war concerns. Metals acting as safe haven and no one wants to touch miners if the markets are going to tank.
Weekly chart looks like handle is still forming on the cup and handle. This could trade within that 1900-2000 range for awhile yet. If it breaks and holds above 2030 then I think we can take out the old highs.
It does look like we have more room to the upside right now. No real topping tail on this weeks candle so next week could be a deciding moment for now. The big moves comes when the fed reverses and they may not raise anymore but they also may not reverse course and ease. To much inflation still and to many morons in congress wanting to spend our way out of inflation.
 
Last edited:

S&P 500 breaks below key level for first time since March as stocks erase summer gains

The S&P 500 index capped off a busy week for markets on Friday by breaking below its 200-day moving average for the first time in more than six months and...
www.marketwatch.com

Flight to safety sucking the wind out of the stock market...
 
I hope he's okay as well.
Doesn't he typically take a hiatus around this time of year?
 
Wealthion podcast todays seems to think this all turns around in Nov when company buybacks start up again. Gold lower and stocks higher into year end.
 
It certainly is strange. Normally goldies are charging higher at the first sniff of a turnaround. Lately they've been pretty muted compared to bull markets past.
 
jelly said:
It certainly is strange. Normally goldies are charging higher at the first sniff of a turnaround. Lately they've been pretty muted compared to bull markets past.
Click to expand...
Some juniors and some of the South African Golds have rallied sharply but I don't play there.
 
GDX is deciding if it really wants to break out or not. GDXJ is still contained.

 
Gold-silver ratio still going sideways. Not indicative of a bullish market like we are seeing.
If this was a typical rally in the precious metals, we'd see the ratio plummeting, a nice downmove like in March-April.
I'm with Lancers on this one. This just doesn't look right.

 
Gold won't fly.

Because nothing is real in this market. We have Magic Money, remember? They can conjure up Magic Money in all sorts of ways, including propping up banks that show paper losses in selling gold derivatives at 0300, in huge quantities.

The aim is to show the Deplorables that there is NO way to keep wealth safe. Bitcoin, IMHO, is a cattle trap - like a chuted corral that cowboys drive cattle into. They're leaving it alone until they've completely erased the PM markets; and then they'll do to hodlers what they did to Silk Road, Mt. Gox and FTX.

You got to think about Afterwards.

Not gonna happen? If you believe that, then buy lots of Treasuries. You'll cut your inflation loss in half, anyway.
 
the US paper $ only has worth if someone gives it value

We are seeing half the world decoupling from the mighty US$

And it only gets used by the rest because of the ability to enforce at point of gun

This is increasingly being revealed as hype.

How long has the US $ got before it becomes as relevant as zimbabwe $ ?
 
There's no question that the rest of the world is getting hosed by having to accept US dollars in exchange for real goods. We get to export our inflation to them. However, after the 2020 scamdemic and the shut down of the world we didn't get to import as many goods and export as many dollars. Now we are eating our own inflation.
The reality is there is no replacement for the dollar. On a small scale some countries will bypass the dollar but on a worldwide scale there is no currency that can replace the dollar and do what it does. We are also probably at least a decade away from any other currency being able to compete. I expect that over the next decade other currencies will (China) will be a larger part of international transactions but they really need a much larger reserve before that can happen. They also have their own problems right now and if they dont keep propping up their own system the recession they are facing will lead to a large scale deflationary problem and set them back another decade.
 

Dow futures tumble 200 points on Monday as 10-year Treasury yield tops 5%: Live updates

Stock futures ticked higher on Sunday night, ahead of a big week of earnings reports and key economic data releases.
www.cnbc.com
 
So bullish now. Fck me this is why I just read these guys for the entertainment value.

 
And all stocks because bonds turned around. Ackman announced he closed his Bond shorts, of course all stocks rallied even though he basically said the economy or an accident is too high of a risk to continue shorting bonds.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com

Of course, the dollar also tumbled which means Gold and Silver should have rebounded as much or more. Nope, the only things that didn't rally as they should have.
 
Last edited:
Let's assume for a second that you are right and everything rallied except Gold and Silver. Why bother?
 
anyone ever hear about Stocklabs??

I just heard about it. Probably like all the other programs out there...?

How does the Stocklabs Quant work?​

If you're looking for a way to simplify your long term investing by letting Stocklabs do the work picking stocks, follow along with the Stocklabs Quant, built by The Fly. First and foremost, the least hassle approach is to copy the holdings in the portfolio each month and be done with it. To get an idea of how he puts it together, continue on.

 
Voodoo said:
Why bother with what? It's even better to bother with gold and silver BECAUSE of all the manipulation. So, so undervalued.
Click to expand...

They've been pretty successful manipulating Silver now for well over 40 years. Gold topped at $1920 a dozen years ago. We're lucky to get 100 years on the planet undervalued can remain undervalued for a very long time as you can see. I'll give it till the end of the decade.
 
Because this is a multi-generational opportunity to build wealth. It is going to leave these rich banker families and be distributed to many more "common" people with the wisdom to understand what is happening.
 
Voodoo said:
Because this is a multi-generational opportunity to build wealth. It is going to leave these rich banker families and be distributed to many more "common" people with the wisdom to understand what is happening.
Click to expand...
But only for those who stack, or buy miners...

the rest of the plebes will be left holding the bag....
 
Goldhedge said:
But only for those who stack, or buy miners...

the rest of the plebes will be left holding the bag....
Click to expand...

Tell that to the widows and orphans who bought the SP500 when Silver was $50 in 1980. Anyway the man from Financial nonSense himself with some predictions for Gold and Silver.


Gold Forecast: Expert Predicts $10,000 Gold and $300 Silver

Gold trading above $10,000 and silver near $300 is where President of Financial Sense Wealth Management, James Puplava sees prices later this decade, according to his Big Picture Update titled: Unsustainable.
www.gold-eagle.com
 
A more relevant question would be; how does one handles a portfolio on a shorter time frame? Going back 43 years is a lot of hind-knowledge. We now know that silver should probably be $200+, were it not for manipulation back then.
If we’re to prevail, do we day-trade or buy and hold? This is a point of much controversy.
 
My guess is everyone situation is different. For me, I bought a core holding of mostly silver long ago. Added some gold along the way but not much. I have a few speculative miners that I focus on. Not that they are any better than any others, just that I don't have time to research a gazillion companies and I can lose my money in a few companies without having to diversify. .
Then I day trade. Not the miners but once in awhile if I see an opportunity in them I will jump in. If silver looks weak then ZSL is good to cover any losses in the silver miners.

None of this is really some high level strategy. Mostly just something to do while I sit around smoking cigars.
 
Ever wonder how much money would have flowed into gold and silver if it weren't for bitcoin?
Is it possible that bitcoin was created as part of the manipulation?
 
IMO the manipulation is built into the system. Last I heard there was like 500 ounces of paper contracts for every ounce of gold. Not sure about silver but probably at least as bad.
So what would a better system be? Do you limit the amount of contracts only to the amount of metals on hand? How would miners hedge? What about companies that deal in large amounts of bullion like SD bullion or Apmex? They bring in 20 million in finished product and have to hedge by shorting the markets. Should they not be allowed to hedge? 25% of the silver market is investment demand which means that 25% of the shorts in silver are probably put in place by the very people we buy silver from. LOL. But it isn't just them. The miners have to do the same thing. The producers who buy from the miners also have to do the same thing. My guess is they go through a big commercial bank to handle all that for them. Still, comes back to the main question of how else do you run a market? Everyone just assumes their own risk in house? That could work. Everyone would just have to adjust premiums accordingly.
 
The number of paper contracts that can be bought or sold don't seem to have had much effect on other commodities. Why the manipulation? Ask most fools on the street and they most likely can't tell you the price of Gold let alone Silver so they aren't manipulation for them not to see what's really going on. That's reinforced every trip to the market.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Menu
Log in
Register
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more…