The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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All I keep hearing is Gold ATH soon. Believe it when I see it.
 
Yeah the low was in at $1600 not that long ago but you don't get points for being bullish from August 2020 on down into that low. Do ya?
 
Here's the problem in the mining space aside from the obvious. Metals pricing. Franco Nevada got hit pretty hard yesterday. One of their holding First Quantum a mining concern in Panama I believe lost a third of its value in one day from 30 bucks down to 20.
 

A big risk for the miners but, ultimately, that just makes the price of refined copper go even higher. If there are major shutdowns and production loses. Even if the government were to seize the mine they likely run it into the ground very quickly.
 
Voodoo said:
A big risk for the miners but, ultimately, that just makes the price of refined copper go even higher. If there are major shutdowns and production loses. Even if the government were to seize the mine they likely run it into the ground very quickly.
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Likely? For sure.
 
Lancers32 said:
Likely? For sure.
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We're all familiar with the phrase "past performance is not indicative of future results"
However, when it comes to governments screwing up things, I feel pretty confident we can bet on it.
Milton Friedman used to say - If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there'd be a shortage of sand.
 
FWIW. Eric Hadik. Heard of him? Pretty good better than most. Looking for a Gold high here and a low late December. Good luck.
 
Goodbye I'm out meant I sold my miners. Just cause a random guy here or there goes don't make it bullish.
 
Fed day tomorrow. GDX to $27?
It's either going to be a smash or a spike higher. Can't really go sideways here.
 
Gold is overbought, but as Zed has pointed out - as long as stochastics stay embedded, this can keep running. RSI has barely been overbought, which makes me think there is a real possibility of more upside before we get a pullback.


Miners have pulled back, and have plenty of upside if a move higher were to start here.



I normally would be bullish here, but the severe lack of participation in the miners has me thinking gold drops here. I've never seen such pathetic action in miners during such a strong move in gold. This is puzzling.
 
The dollar and 10-year yields have both been consolidating here. I think those 2 will determine what happens to gold. I’m still thinking good goes higher despite the miners.
 
Just for the record Cramer is positive on Gold. Feel better now? Don't mean it can't go up. No one is wrong every time.
 
I thought we were focusing on the fundamentals....?
 
hernancortes said:
When Dave Ramsey finally touts gold, then you can begin to worry.
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He's saying this is the best time to buy a home. They're not going to go down in price.

It kills me to hear that. Everyone's on the fiat money making train... only the train isn't moving forward.

Houses don't go up in 'value' - in reality the dollar goes down in value and it takes more 'devalued dollars' to purchase a home.

That's not an 'investment'. Buying a home DOES keep you at par with inflation however.
 
I did catch that, he and Barbara Corcoran said in unison that it's a great time to buy a home because rates will be going down and you can always refinance. Besides supply will be staying low and demand high. Is demand even high now, I doubt it.
 
hernancortes said:
I did catch that, he and Barbara Corcoran said in unison that it's a great time to buy a home because rates will be going down and you can always refinance. Besides supply will be staying low and demand high. Is demand even high now, I doubt it.
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Depends on location. Houston DC and a few other places are still going above asking price and don't sit on the market long. Columbus Oh is still moving pretty fast and not much available.
We also have million of illegals coming in and we have to house them somewhere. Fed gov will bail out the states that need it and housing will be built for them.
 
The anti credit guy who takes credit cards for his $hit. Good advice in spots for the brain dead too stupid to spend less than they make. Gotta give him credit he got rich figuring out a good spot to fish.
 
hernancortes said:
I did catch that, he and Barbara Corcoran said in unison that it's a great time to buy a home because rates will be going down and you can always refinance. Besides supply will be staying low and demand high. Is demand even high now, I doubt it.
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You can always refi? What could go wrong. Buy a house drive an absolute pos car that might not start for the wife and put all your money in a good mutual fund. Good advice until it isn't.
 
I guess the bugs are safe as long as Silver can keep its head above $22.50 and stay there. SLV or PSLV a lottery ticket if you don't mind watching it sit until it explodes upwards.
 
I don't think there's ever been a time in the history of the gold market where gold itelf is embed in overbought stochastics, whilst gold miners are simultaneously reaching oversold in the stochastics. Does anyone know what the hell is going on here?

 

It would be easier to explain if the SM was crashing or going down hard. So either the mines are gonna get nationalized or this is a very good buying opportunity. Your guess is as good as mine.
 
Everything seems to think the FED is done raising, well except the PM markets. Lol, the manipulations is beyond obvious. They are pressing the pedal to the metal till it flies apart.
 
I copied and pasted your comment, along with the question of what the hell is going on?, to Microsoft AI (Copilot) and here's the response.

The situation you’re describing is indeed unusual, but it can be explained by a combination of factors affecting the gold market and the gold mining industry.

Firstly, let’s talk about the gold market. Gold prices have been significantly bullish recently due to renewed safe-haven demand caused by rising geopolitical uncertainty1. This has pushed prices back to $2,000 an ounce1. However, some analysts are warning that the price is a little overstretched and could be starting a new consolidation pattern1. This is where the concept of “overbought” comes in. In technical analysis, an asset is considered overbought when its price has risen significantly and rapidly, to a point where it’s believed to be trading at a level above its intrinsic value2. This is often measured using indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Stochastics3, which are currently indicating that gold is in an overbought situation1.

On the other hand, gold miners are reaching oversold levels in their stochastics4. The term “oversold” in technical analysis refers to a situation where an asset’s price has fallen sharply and significantly, to a point where it’s believed to be trading at a level below its intrinsic value2. This could be due to various factors such as operational challenges, political risks, or market sentiment towards the mining industry4.

In this case, despite the high price of gold, gold miners might not be able to fully benefit from these prices due to operational or geopolitical challenges. For example, one of the company’s properties is in a state in Mexico that has some political risk (a history of strikes)4.

Moreover, market dynamics such as U.S. bond yields and economic data can also influence both gold and gold miners differently. For instance, better-than-expected U.S. economic data led to the overnight strengthening of the US dollar, supported treasury yields, and dented the appeal of non-yielding gold1. On the other hand, bond yields holding near 5% could make U.S. treasuries a compelling safe-haven asset and compete with precious metals1.

So while it’s unusual for gold to be overbought while gold miners are oversold, it’s not impossible given the complex interplay of factors affecting both markets.

There, feel more at ease now?
 
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