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The Bond Market Just Sounded Its Most Severe Alarm in 50 Years. It Could Signal a Big Move in the Stock Market in 2024​

Recent signs of economic resilience have more and more investors giving credence to the "soft landing" narrative, a scenario in which the Federal Reserve successfully tames inflation without causing a recession. This growing conviction in this rather rare outcome helped propel the three major U.S. financial indexes higher in 2023.

Year to date, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 13% and set new all-time highs, the broad-based S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) increased 23%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite soared 42%.

Yet, analysts at JPMorgan Chase and Deutsche Bank, among other financial institutions, still see a recession as a distinct possibility in the next 12-18 months. They are concerned that the impact of higher interest rates has yet to fully make its way through the economy, and consumers have propped up the economy so far with outsized spending that is depleting savings and causing many to take on added debt. Some analysts argue that an economic downturn is possible (or even probable) as those situations evolve.

A potential confirmation of the analysts' fears can be seen in the bond market, which is sounding its most severe recession alarm in decades. Read on to learn more.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-market-just-sounded-most-115500585.html
 

21 SPAC Companies Go Bust, Wiping out $46 Billion In Equity​

BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, DEC 28, 2023 - 04:55 AM

An increasing number of startups that have merged with special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, are running out of cash and unable to raise new funds in a deteriorating macro environment with high interest rates.

At least 21 companies that went public via SPACs filed for bankruptcy this year, wiping out $46 billion in total equity, according to Bloomberg data. Some of the largest bankruptcies were WeWork, Lordstown Motors, and Virgin Orbit.

21 SPAC Companies Go Bust, Wiping out $46 Billion In Equity | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 
Admittedly Kramer doesn't have the best record.
But like anybody's prediction.....

1703781062886.png
 
Goldhedge said:

21 SPAC Companies Go Bust, Wiping out $46 Billion In Equity​

BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, DEC 28, 2023 - 04:55 AM

An increasing number of startups that have merged with special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, are running out of cash and unable to raise new funds in a deteriorating macro environment with high interest rates.

At least 21 companies that went public via SPACs filed for bankruptcy this year, wiping out $46 billion in total equity, according to Bloomberg data. Some of the largest bankruptcies were WeWork, Lordstown Motors, and Virgin Orbit.

21 SPAC Companies Go Bust, Wiping out $46 Billion In Equity | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
Click to expand...

Ok, that doesn't really mean much without a backdrop. How about companies that went the IPO route?
 
dpong said:
Thanks! This is extremely interesting! Uncommon view, appreciated.
Click to expand...
Where else is big money going to go? Money mangers all sizes who missed this year have been plowing in of late. Feeding frenzy. More to come I would think.
 
Not a whole lot new in this video but confirms that Gold has broken out. It looks excellent on the charts. Don't get left behind by some minor little attempt to throw you off this horse.

 
Stocks and cryptos shitting the bed right now. I'm not seeing any news that might explain why. Is it just year end profit taking?
 
Neel Kashkari, the President/CEO Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said that Venmo, a digital currency, already exists so there is no need for central bank digital currency (CBDC). CBDC is bad because it can monitor and control financial transactions and can impose negative interest rates (a monetary policy tool that charges banks to store their cash at the central bank, instead of earning interest income). CBDC can impose a direct tax on accounts. Kashkari said there is no use for it.


When India implemented CBDC in 2016, 70% of the economy crashed. CBDC is a tool to implement a social credit system.

 
U.S. government-debt yields remained higher Wednesday morning as reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in March overshadowed data on manufacturing and job openings.

On Wednesday, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said that the timing and pace of any changes in interest rates this year will be determined by conviction on whether inflation is still coming down and how well the economy is doing. His remarks came ahead of the planned 2 p.m. Eastern time release of the minutes from the central bank’s Dec. 12-13 policy meeting.

The market has started 2024 by questioning expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in March. The shift reflects concerns that investors may have misjudged the Fed’s desire to quickly trim rates in response to falling inflation.
...
Click to expand...

www.marketwatch.com

Treasury yields move higher as traders rein in rate-cut optimism ahead of Fed minutes

U.S. government-debt yields remained higher Wednesday morning as reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in March overshadowed data on...
www.marketwatch.com www.marketwatch.com

Duh.
 
How big have the Magnificent 7 become?

The market cap of the Magnificent 7 is now the same size as the combined market cap of the stock markets in Japan, Canada, and the UK.

Soon, the market cap of the Magnificent 7 will cross a record $12 trillion.

This means that these 7 stocks now account for over 30% of the entire S&P 500.

Also, the Magnificent 7 has a market cap bigger than the GDP of every country in the world other than China and the US.

Is this a bubble or the new normal?


 

McCullough: ‘The Biggest Red Signal In the Market’ Right Now Is $AAPL​

Keith McCullough examined yesterday’s -3.5% slide of Apple (AAPL) this morning on The Macro Show. Apple is currently down 1% today.

“When you start talking about these trillion-dollar market caps and their impact on the S&P 500, you really need to pay attention. It does that infrequently,” Hedgeye’s Risk Manager in Chief says of the mega-cap Tech stock’s one-day move from bullish trend to bearish trend.

“How many people own Apple? Basically everyone,” McCullough adds.

“How may know the volatility of it? And how to apply it to their decision-making? A very low percentage. Apple volatility (VXAPL) going to 25 was the biggest red signal in the market yesterday, because Apple equates to 7% of the S&P 500. Huge impact. So, if you didn’t know the Mother of All Bubbles #MOAB matters, now you know.”

As an investor, there’s no obligation to own what “everyone else” owns. Subscribe to Portfolio Solutions to see the core asset allocations that are hitting all-time highs in McCullough’s own long-only ETF portfolio.

video
app.hedgeye.com

Hedgeye Risk Management | McCullough: ‘The Biggest Red Signal In the Market’ Right Now Is $AAPL

Keith McCullough examined yesterday’s -3.5% slide of Apple (AAPL) shares this morning on The Macro Show.
app.hedgeye.com app.hedgeye.com
 
Viking said:
Neel Kashkari, the President/CEO Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said that Venmo, a digital currency, already exists so there is no need for central bank digital currency (CBDC). CBDC is bad because it can monitor and control financial transactions and can impose negative interest rates (a monetary policy tool that charges banks to store their cash at the central bank, instead of earning interest income). CBDC can impose a direct tax on accounts. Kashkari said there is no use for it.


When India implemented CBDC in 2016, 70% of the economy crashed. CBDC is a tool to implement a social credit system.

Click to expand...
Fed doesn’t like a GOVERNMENT CONTROLLED CBDC competing with their paper fiat. Criminals competing for our ability to transact.
 
CDE. Double bottom daily. Might not mean much. Trading the miners on the belief we saw the bottoms and this is a correction. Levels CDE 2.80ish 2.60 then 2.30. Big range big losses probable but YOLO. This last little bit here shows why you can't chase these things.


CDE_2024-01-04_17-25-22.png
 
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Rich Dad Poor Dad. Follow this guy's advice. Counter to everything you have ever heard on any message board even remotely like this one.

news.slashdot.org

'Rich Dad Poor Dad' Author Says He's Racked Up More Than $1 Billion in Debt - Slashdot

A bestselling personal finance author and entrepreneur admits that he has more than $1 billion in debt -- and he doesn't think that's a bad thing. From a report: "If I go bust, the bank goes bust," said "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" author Robert Kiyosaki in a Nov. 30 Instagram reel. "Not my problem."...
news.slashdot.org
 
Lancers32 said:
Rich Dad Poor Dad. Follow this guy's advice. Counter to everything you have ever heard on any message board even remotely like this one.

news.slashdot.org

'Rich Dad Poor Dad' Author Says He's Racked Up More Than $1 Billion in Debt - Slashdot

A bestselling personal finance author and entrepreneur admits that he has more than $1 billion in debt -- and he doesn't think that's a bad thing. From a report: "If I go bust, the bank goes bust," said "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" author Robert Kiyosaki in a Nov. 30 Instagram reel. "Not my problem."...
news.slashdot.org
Click to expand...
Sounds like he's following in Trump's footsteps... he did the same thing!
 
Clown world wins while personal responsibility loses. Welcome to today's reality....RIP
 
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