The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

Welcome to the Precious Metals Bug Forums

Welcome to the PMBug forums - a watering hole for folks interested in gold, silver, precious metals, sound money, investing, market and economic news, central bank monetary policies, politics and more.

Why not register an account and join the discussions? When you register an account and log in, you may enjoy additional benefits including no Google ads, market data/charts, access to trade/barter with the community and much more. Registering an account is free - you have nothing to lose!

$100 billion? Psshhhh, that's just a Fedgov budget rounding error. Let me know when we're not talking about fiddling small change.
 
All these alt media places and not one of them has a clue. The dollar isn't going anywhere. Not until the 2030's anyway. It's a slow process and you dont just throw one out and have another take its place.
China just going to throw away a trillion in treasuries and stop doing business with the largest economy in the world? China going to roll out 10's of trillions to take on reserve status?
There's no question the rest of the world sees the advantage the US has to having reserve status. Print money at will with no real consequences. The rest of the world is forced to take the worthless paper in exchange for real goods made with cheap labor. Unfortunately there is nothing to take its place. Gold could take on the roll but only for a short time. You could value it wherever you like but eventually the manufacturing powerhouses end up with all the gold. Those who produce nothing end up giving up all their gold and either end up with massive debt that could never be repaid or end up not being allowed to import anything because they produce nothing to export. That doesn't bode well for an economy like the US that no longer produces anything and is basically a consumer economy.
The brick nations are on the road to breaking away from the US dollar for sure but they are at least a decade away from doing so. Even then the dollar isn't finished. It would still be accepted by those nations because those nations also rely on the dollar economy that the US represents and no way any of them want to give up the consumers in the US or the US exports that they reply upon.
Even if 1/2 the world said no more dollar that still leaves around 3.5-4 billion people who would still use it. Whats that like 1990's world population numbers? Plenty of people to keep the dollar in use. The fed has also recognized that the world I large enough for 2 reserve currencies if that does happen. It may lose more value which it needs to for the US to remain competitive but it will be around for awhile. I wouldn't load up on rubles just yet.
 
Cigarlover said:
All these alt media places and not one of them has a clue. The dollar isn't going anywhere. Not until the 2030's anyway. It's a slow process and you dont just throw one out and have another take its place.
China just going to throw away a trillion in treasuries and stop doing business with the largest economy in the world? China going to roll out 10's of trillions to take on reserve status?
There's no question the rest of the world sees the advantage the US has to having reserve status. Print money at will with no real consequences. The rest of the world is forced to take the worthless paper in exchange for real goods made with cheap labor. Unfortunately there is nothing to take its place. Gold could take on the roll but only for a short time. You could value it wherever you like but eventually the manufacturing powerhouses end up with all the gold. Those who produce nothing end up giving up all their gold and either end up with massive debt that could never be repaid or end up not being allowed to import anything because they produce nothing to export. That doesn't bode well for an economy like the US that no longer produces anything and is basically a consumer economy.
The brick nations are on the road to breaking away from the US dollar for sure but they are at least a decade away from doing so. Even then the dollar isn't finished. It would still be accepted by those nations because those nations also rely on the dollar economy that the US represents and no way any of them want to give up the consumers in the US or the US exports that they reply upon.
Even if 1/2 the world said no more dollar that still leaves around 3.5-4 billion people who would still use it. Whats that like 1990's world population numbers? Plenty of people to keep the dollar in use. The fed has also recognized that the world I large enough for 2 reserve currencies if that does happen. It may lose more value which it needs to for the US to remain competitive but it will be around for awhile. I wouldn't load up on rubles just yet.
Click to expand...

Things happen slowly and then appearing Quite suddenly. Look back at other hyper-inflations. It is like boiling a pot of water, it takes forever with nothing seemingly happening, then it erupts in huge bubbles.
 
The initial weekly jobless claims fell by 16,000 to 230,000 in the week to Saturday, surprising the markets with a bigger-than-expected decrease.

Economists’ consensus calls projected for the initial claims to edge up to 248,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 246,000.

The four-week moving average for new claims – often viewed as a more reliable measure of the labor market since it flattens week-to-week volatility – dropped by 4,000 to 236,000. The previous week’s four-week moving average was revised up by 250 to 240,000, the U.S. Labor Department said on Thursday.
...
Click to expand...

www.kitco.com

U.S. weekly jobless claims drop by 16k to 230,000

www.kitco.com

Signal that the economy is still running too warm. It's support for the Fed to raise rates in a week.
 
Promise not to post that Groucho Marx video again Zed. Come back soon. Because America ain't totally farked yet.

www.armstrongeconomics.com

Biden’s Let’s Finish the Job | Armstrong Economics

Biden's announcement that he is running was crafted like a Twitter post - not live and posted at 6AM. His message is highly questionable for all he is saying is that the Republicans are radicals and therefore vote for him and he will maintain the status quo. There is a void of any new proposal
www.armstrongeconomics.com www.armstrongeconomics.com
 
My best guess at this point is you could just hold and or buy the pm complex and the energies on any weakness. No leverage unless you're brave or smart. Brent Johnson Cigarlover?
 
Cigarlover said:
The brick nations are on the road to breaking away from the US dollar for sure but they are at least a decade away from doing so. Even then the dollar isn't finished. It would still be accepted by those nations because those nations also rely on the dollar economy that the US represents and no way any of them want to give up the consumers in the US or the US exports that they reply upon.
Click to expand...
Yes the US is a big economy, but what happens when this big economy can't afford to purchase anything but the basics?

Look at the homeless population ever growing.

Does anyone ever wonder why we have homeless encampments today? Why are there homeless people in every city?

It's because the value of the money is shit. Gasoline is still $0.30/gallon IF you have three thin dimes.

Where did all that 'value' disappear to?


1964 Kennedy Half Dollar		$0.50$8.90131780.26%

Federal Minimum wage is $7.25/hr which based upon silver value means a worker is making less than $0.50/hr today.

Double that to $14.50/hr and they're making less than a dollar/hr.
 
Hemke looks at options calls and puts to predict short term precious metal price movement:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/COMEX-gold-options-update-april-26-2023

This is a similar technique to the one Zed was developing/working on last year. Zed no doubt does cutting edge work. Hoping he will find his way back onto the forum shortly, especially as things heat up for the precious metals into the latter half of 2023.
 
Despite a year's worth of interest rate increases, inflation rose again in March, according to economic data released Friday that the Federal Reserve watches closely.

The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 0.3% for the month, in line with the Dow Jones estimate. On an annual basis, so-called core PCE increased 4.6%, slightly higher than the expectation for 4.5% and down 0.1 percentage point from February.
...
Click to expand...

www.cnbc.com

Key inflation gauge for the Fed rose 0.3% in March as expected

The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 0.3% for the month.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

It's looking more and more like the Fed will raise rates again on Wednesday.
 
Goldhedge said:
as did a lot of folks... makes one wonder where all the money went....
Click to expand...
Same place as it is likely to go next time around... down some big ol black hole. A lot of wealth is based on values of assets that have bloated prices stuffed with counterparty risk. When the music stops and people figure out there aren't enough seats at the table they will rush to the exits. When folks understand the true value of what they 'own', prices plummet, and wealth evaporates into thin air.

Think about the emperor's new clothes.
 
savvydon said:
Same place as it is likely to go next time around... down some big ol black hole. A lot of wealth is based on values of assets that have bloated prices stuffed with counterparty risk. When the music stops and people figure out there aren't enough seats at the table they will rush to the exits. When folks understand the true value of what they 'own', prices plummet, and wealth evaporates into thin air.

Think about the emperor's new clothes.
Click to expand...
Exactly, most people never associate the word "Speculation" as being synonymous with "wealth" or "equity" or "assets", but it's all fabricated. When one understands the gravity of the derivaties bubble, it should send a shiver down the spine.
 
Armstrong has said the past few years at least that foreign capital would look for a home in the US stock market. Has the imposition of sanctions and the possibility of the US govt stealing money from foreigners put the kibosh on that? Can the stock market crash? Think the miners survive that? Silver probably goes with it but Gold looks like it is trying to break out. Might go lower first but that move down to $1600 was the last great buying opp. Could be wrong but I don't think so.
 
The underlying rallied more than the ETF. These ETF's aren't great for long term holds but you might expect to get at least close to dollar for dollar in such a short space of time. Natural Gas.


UNG_2023-04-30_18-08-09.pngQG1!_2023-04-30_18-07-41.png
 
Voodoo said:
Nat Gas Looks like a buy to me right now. Corn, Soybeans, WTIC are all in backwardation. not sure on those.
Click to expand...
Like them all on weakness for the long term. Full on depression who knows but YOLO.
 
Lancers32 said:
Armstrong has said the past few years at least that foreign capital would look for a home in the US stock market. Has the imposition of sanctions and the possibility of the US govt stealing money from foreigners put the kibosh on that?
Click to expand...
Announcing the 16th largest bank failure and BRICS+ realizing that the US will steal your reserves... if you don't obey....
 
Voodoo said:
Oops what's this? Retesting the previous high already 20 mins into the day.

View attachment 8364
Click to expand...
My guess is that it is a quick knee jerk reaction to this morning's First Republic shenanigans. Silver up stronger than gold on the move which imo reveals the hidden strength behind silver's position. GSR down under 78, but plenty of room left down below. 2c...
 
Voodoo said:
... JPM needed a huge cash infusion and got that yesterday.
Click to expand...
wizardofoz.jpg
 
The gold market moved above $2,000 an ounce after the U.S. labor market showed signs of slowing, with the number of job openings dropping more than expected in March.

The number of available positions declined to 9.6 million in March from an upwardly revised 9.974 million a month earlier, the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, showed Wednesday. Market consensus calls were expecting to see 9.8 million openings.
...
The ratio of job openings to unemployed people edged down to 1.6 in March, marking the lowest level since October 2021. The Federal Reserve likes to watch this ratio and has previously stated that rate hikes were justified because the number of job openings was elevated.

The gold market began to rally after the release, with June Comex gold futures last trading at $2,012, up 0.99% on the day.

All eyes are on the Fed’s rate decision this Wednesday, with markets pricing in a 92% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. But the lower-than-expected job openings signal that this could be the last Fed rate hike in this tightening cycle before a pause.
...
Click to expand...

www.kitco.com

Gold price jumps above $2,000 as U.S. job openings drop to 9.6 million

www.kitco.com
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom