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I don't know how much stock any of you put into the musings of Martin Armstrong's computer but he says that Gold is bottoming here/next week. Gold support $1902 which we came close to early this morning. If you want to buy Gold do so before mid July. Don't know if he means fizzie or paper but this time he says Gold will break out.

It is hard psychologically to go ballz in at $1900 if you didn't buy the whack to $1600 yeah? At any rate I think this will be the big one but am willing to give up some leverage and just go more into Sprott's Gold and Silver vehicles with some miners on the side.
 
It would seem logical for gold to continue to face headwinds (in dollar terms) until it is clear that the Fed is done raising rates. All indications at the moment are that we are still some months away from that inflection.
 
pmbug said:
It would seem logical for gold to continue to face headwinds (in dollar terms) until it is clear that the Fed is done raising rates. All indications at the moment are that we are still some months away from that inflection.
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Thing is this isn't 1979-1980 where Volcker was able to raise rates and thereby crush Gold. I was fearful of lending money to the Feds in 1980 even at 14% rates in Benham's Govt MM Fund. Things are different today. Even normies are waking up now and can see there is no reason to trust the govt. Loss of confidence Gold flies regardless of what the DX is trading. The really low risk bottom is G and S are long gone.
 
Lancers32 said:
I don't know how much stock any of you put into the musings of Martin Armstrong's computer but he says that Gold is bottoming here/next week. Gold support $1902 which we came close to early this morning. If you want to buy Gold do so before mid July. Don't know if he means fizzie or paper but this time he says Gold will break out.

It is hard psychologically to go ballz in at $1900 if you didn't buy the whack to $1600 yeah? At any rate I think this will be the big one but am willing to give up some leverage and just go more into Sprott's Gold and Silver vehicles with some miners on the side.
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If gold does break out... it means the dollar is toast without butter, nor jam.
 
Lancers32 said:
I don't know how much stock any of you put into the musings of Martin Armstrong's computer but he says that Gold is bottoming here/next week. Gold support $1902 which we came close to early this morning. If you want to buy Gold do so before mid July. Don't know if he means fizzie or paper but this time he says Gold will break out.

It is hard psychologically to go ballz in at $1900 if you didn't buy the whack to $1600 yeah? At any rate I think this will be the big one but am willing to give up some leverage and just go more into Sprott's Gold and Silver vehicles with some miners on the side.
Click to expand...

Time to move my chips All-In.... In everything but Gold. IE Silver, Pt, and miners.
 
Nice move early giving up some gains now. Be surprised if we were to go straight up from here maybe a couple days jerking around first. Most likely will be close to all in by the end of next week. Bought some pre.
 
Zed said:
The problem is that the word inflation has become synonymous with rising prices due to the way it is used in the media etc. Supply and demand for any given good may drive the price higher but it's not inflation.

Inflation/deflation is a money supply issue that may impact price. It does it with a delay and it doesn't always hit the prices that cause us pain. We've just lived through 25+ years of inflation driving asset prices disproportionately higher. Of course that isn't 'inflation' in the popular press, that is simply a wide spread out break of investment genius.

Anyway... right now we have plenty of evidence that we have a deflationary impulse underway. The discussion should be around what part of the money supply is contracting and in what order that impacts the economy. Right now the PPI is in inarguable decline which is also reflected in the trend in oil prices etc. Credit is the most volatile part of the money supply, as it deflates with the application of eye wateringly fast interest rate rises it will impact all things that are in credit dependent markets first. Say for an example we are increasing the base money supply at the same time you could generate cost pressure in the cash economy while the total money supply is shrinking. These things are not hardwired together.

So yeah, costs might be rising but calling it all inflation all the time doesn't help anyone save for maybe the central wankers.

Really we need to understand what part of the money supply is doing changing and what that means in the real world. To add to the confusion we are also talking about a relative level. An expanding money supply is only really inflation if it out strips the productive capacity of the economy. Of course measuring that is next to impossible, doubly so with our 'goobermint' metrics... so that debate will never end.

For now it looks like we are headed into a credit crunch aka a slower deflation in the credit portion of the money supply accelerates to a point of crisis... 2008 style. My immediate worry is that we are looking at another period where all assets go out the window, gold included. Opportunity will arise for sure but first we have to avoid being caught up in the accident. Considering it looks like this brush fire is in the banking system and quietly growing it may not be that easy to avoid.

I dunno...

How much is left in the FDIC's fighting fund? 1 or 2% of what might be needed? Print some more to solve that issue? That might really hit street level pricing.

... but who knows. I don't.

Shutup Zed...

OK.
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I'm fine if we want to Define Inflation as the supply and demand of Money.

Then we need a word or term for Price changes based on supply and demand of Goods.
 
Voodoo said:
Just an appetizer. The real buyers don't need those assets as they have their own new companies planned. Or so it appears.

It's very telling that OSTK Gained over $130 million in MC for that $21 million purchase. Undervalued apparently.
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This is getting close to coming to an end. They just filed an 8K that says their debt is now $1.7 Billion down from like the $5.5 Billion claimed in the BK filing.

Most of that is debt that could have been purchased for 5 cents on the dollar at the end.



"This is exactly what an LBO looks like. What's better, the $1.7b owed in bond debt can essentially be considered nothing if said bond holder uses their position to acquire/merge/spin-off the company."
 
It's all fun and games until...

Wall Street’s Most Dangerous Derivative Secrets Are Hiding in Plain Sight in a Regulator’s Report​


By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: June 21, 2023 ~

On March 17, 2022, the Federal Reserve began its interest rate hiking cycle, which has, thus far, evolved into 10 consecutive rate hikes, making it the fastest rate increases in 40 years. The Fed’s actions to tame inflation included four consecutive interest rate hikes of an aggressive 75 basis point hike (three quarters of one percent) on June 16, July 28, September 22, and November 3 of last year.

the rest of the story

Wall Street’s Most Dangerous Derivative Secrets Are Hiding in Plain Sight in a Regulator’s Report

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: June 21, 2023 ~ On March 17, 2022, the Federal Reserve began its interest rate hiking cycle, which has, thus far, evolved
wallstreetonparade.com
 
We better be near a bottom, because I feel like I got my arse handed to me.
 
For entertainment purposes only. This is Elliot Wave or someone's interpretation of it. When the guy who wrote the book on it can't make money anymore I doubt its usefulness. Anyway. Gold From 321 Captain EWave or something like that.



gold_daily.png
 
Markets breath a sigh of relief the metals get hit and make a good bottom next week.
 
Gold Weekly - Not a great looking candle for the week. Nuthin earth shattering yet. The 1870's then the 18 teens wait as support if we break down here. One last gut check on the way? Sentiment certainly seems to be nearer capitulation end of the scale.

GC1!_2023-06-26_12-54-13.png
 
NASDAQ - Daily, Fibo drawn on closes It's interesting how close these levels can be given the myriad variables involved.

NDX_2023-06-27_11-06-00.png
 
jelly said:
Gold sideways until September?
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I doubt it, July to August should see a rally of some sort... mebe not new highs, depends what you are calling sideways. I guess no new high can still fall into the sideways category even if it is a nascent rally.

Vaiting... etc, etc... lox anyone?
 
For gold:

Central Banks / interest rates - headwind
Geopolitics - tailwind
 
Gold. $1900 doesn't hold likely go halfway back to around $1860. 2070-1610.
 
Pizza ovens in New York. Balls out pride parades. Normal.
 
Convince me that mining stocks are a buy in this scenario.


 
Lancers32 said:
Convince me that mining stocks are a buy in this scenario.


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In 2020 I sold the miners before the crash and rebought them after the crash. The opposite of Mr. Oliver's advice. Holding through the crash would have worked out OK, but just not as good.
 
If you're looking for a SM crash we had one 3 years ago. Not likely to have another this soon.
 
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