The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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Markets appear to be a bit exhuberant at the inflation numbers this morning. When the Fed makes it clear that they are still going to raise rates, the other shoe will drop (again) IMO.
 
pmbug said:
Markets appear to be a bit exhuberant at the inflation numbers this morning. When the Fed makes it clear that they are still going to raise rates, the other shoe will drop (again) IMO.
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Higher rates are going to drive higher prices now. The FED is losing, badly.
 
Zed said:
They are selling goldies down here, off 2% or so. Expect a battle tonight...
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Gold was off in AUD last night, it was all in a weak USD. It will be interesting today to see if the ASX goldies follow the strong US gold stock lead or if they follow the AUD gold price... we have bi-polar gold stock markets in that regard.
 
Pre-market is suggesting that we will get back 3/5's of the US gains. So yesterdays losses + a point or so.
 
AUD Silver on a quarterly chart is a potential cup and handle formation, the neck line is 1 AUD away. The target is $54 AUD, I'm not us what that is in US Peso's. Regardless it is a healthy looking setup for now.


XAGAUD_2023-07-13_09-31-36.png
 
Most ozzie's I've talked to about gold don't understand why I like the sector. No one thinks about it AT ALL! Yet this is an annual chart of AUD Gold over the ASX All Ord's. All the talk is real estate and stonks. Yet...

XAUAUD_2023-07-13_09-37-39.png
 
So the miners are sluggish. We get any kind of retracement in the metals the next few days it should be a decent opportunity to add to mining positions. Sharp 2 days down would be ideal.
 
Lancers32 said:
So the miners are sluggish. We get any kind of retracement in the metals the next few days it should be a decent opportunity to add to mining positions. Sharp 2 days down would be ideal.
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I don't think we will get that this time. You don't want to buy lows, you don't want to buy break outs and then things run away from you. I do NOT want that happening this time.
 
Voodoo said:
I don't think we will get that this time. You don't want to buy lows, you don't want to buy break outs and then things run away from you. I do NOT want that happening this time.
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You do you I want to buy as close to a low as is possible. Less risk that way. So real world example. Would you buy SILJ and HL right now?
 
Just re read that. You don't want to buy lows and you don't want to buy breakouts. You want to buy where exactly?
 
I like to buy falling knives. Sometimes I get surprised and there are one or two even lower lows. But I'm fine with the P&L red as I know it's temporary. I just have to be careful to NOT do this with my trading account / shorter term options because that is not a path to great success. I have the investor mindset.

I actually literally did that last night. Had 3 new lawn mower blades in a box and bent over. Slid right out and I snagged them in mid-air. Then realized that might not have been smart but luckily mower blades had a coating and were not really sharp.
 
Voodoo said:
I like to buy falling knives. Sometimes I get surprised and there are one or two even lower lows. But I'm fine with the P&L red as I know it's temporary. I just have to be careful to NOT do this with my trading account / shorter term options because that is not a path to great success. I have the investor mindset.

I actually literally did that last night. Had 3 new lawn mower blades in a box and bent over. Slid right out and I snagged them in mid-air. Then realized that might not have been smart but luckily mower blades had a coating and were not really sharp.
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I like falling knives too so we agree. :cool:
 
Lancers32 said:
You do you I want to buy as close to a low as is possible. Less risk that way. So real world example. Would you buy SILJ and HL right now?
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No, I would not really be adding/buying now because I'm mostly invested. Bought the April and May dips and was out of real capital to add in June. Hindsight says the April trade sucked and the May trade decent.

Actually I did add some SILJ lotto calls on June 9th. Bought Nov $15 calls in a different account.
 
I'm really warming to this guy and he's put out 2 detailed videos (50 mins) the last two days. Calling for hyper-stagflation and I think that is a spot on expectation and term.

 
Gold sold off again in AUD as we hit the wall in USD.

Fridays can be good buying when things are nervous, there is often no will to hold for the weekend.

I've never done the exercise but there is probably a consistent $ in buying Friday weakness after a weak or nervous week of trade then selling any strength in the next week.
 
Zed said:
Gold sold off again in AUD as we hit the wall in USD.

Fridays can be good buying when things are nervous, there is often no will to hold for the weekend.

I've never done the exercise but there is probably a consistent $ in buying Friday weakness after a weak or nervous week of trade then selling any strength in the next week.
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I swear if I didn't have a day job I could have gotten rich the past few years buying metals on Comex weakness/beatdowns and selling back into strength on the Asian market.
 
Zed said:
I've never done the exercise but there is probably a consistent $ in buying Friday weakness after a weak or nervous week of trade then selling any strength in the next week.
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And month end and quarter end ...........

If I was not already all in and sitting quietly watching things slowly unravel, I would regularly buy shiny just before 1/4 ends.
Someone smarter than me might be able to load historical data and ask these questions and look for the optimal times to trade ?
Maybe theres a simple trading arrangement that does an automatic sell/buy trade across these dates ?
 
Yeah but gold miners... I've got PE's all over the shop up to 70x depending on the proven reserves they have sitting in the ground, accessibility etc etc. I don't think that PE is a great metric when it comes to a gold mine.
 
Lancers32 said:
No shame.


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