2025 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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Something is going on. Just what that is... is a mystery, but 'something' is going on behind the scenes.
 
There are lots of things that could help curb inflation. Decreased GDP numbers (forecasts) should be a reflection of economic activity, not a driver (or dampener) of it. A 35% off revision either indicates massive incompetence or malfeasance in the Fed's forecasting. I don't think either of those options are really bullish for the future.
 
The White House informed the press that Trump will make an "investment announcement" at 1:30 p.m. EST today (in about 3 hours). They did not disclose any other details. Expect some volatility later today!
 
... A 35% off revision either indicates massive incompetence or malfeasance in the Fed's forecasting. I don't think either of those options are really bullish for the future.

WTF are they actually doing?

 

Trump’s first quarter of GDP is looking shaky. His allies are already trying to shoot the messenger.​

It’s looking like the first assessment of the economy for President Donald Trump’s second administration is going to look shaky. And his allies are already trying to move the goalposts.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow — updated again on Monday — now points to a 2.8% annualized decline in first-quarter output. That’s after a fourth quarter in which the U.S. economy grew at a 2.3% annualized rate.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/...ot-the-messenger/ar-AA1A99if?ocid=socialshare

____________________________________________

 
The White House informed the press that Trump will make an "investment announcement" at 1:30 p.m. EST today (in about 3 hours). They did not disclose any other details. Expect some volatility later today!

Maybe this? And if it is this, does the 100 billion investment come with a U.S. guarantee of military help should China try to invade Taiwan?

Trump to announce Taiwanese firm's $100 billion investment in U.S. chip plants​

Washington — President Trump on Monday will announce that a leading Taiwanese semiconductor chip company plans to invest $100 billion in new manufacturing plants in the U.S., two sources tell CBS News.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC, is one of the world's three largest manufacturers of semiconductor chips, and plans to make the major investment over the next four years, the sources said.

Mr. Trump expected to make the announcement at a 1:30 p.m. event in the Roosevelt Room of the White House. The Wall Street Journal was first to report the investment pledge.

TSMC is a major player in the semiconductor space. The company was promised $6.6 billion in funding under the Biden-era CHIPS and SCIENCE Act of 2022, and announced plans for its first U.S. plant in Arizona.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/com...S&cvid=45a89099c9e545a790b80d9a6cf75356&ei=28
 
WTF are they actually doing?


This has always bothered me. How the markets waits breathlessly for figures to be released and then there's this immediate reaction to the release and huge swings in certain segments one way or the other.

Then a month later, or a quarter later, those "figures" that swung the market so wildly would be revised one way or the other.

Seems to me personally, that if I reacted to these figures and got burned because they weren't accurate then I sure as hell wouldn't be waiting breathlessly for the next release (GDP, jobs report, etc) to show me what my next move should be.

You know, "fool me once"...

Why markets continue to anticipate and react to these releases baffles me.
 
Maybe this? And if it is this, does the 100 billion investment come with a U.S. guarantee of military help should China try to invade Taiwan?

Trump to announce Taiwanese firm's $100 billion investment in U.S. chip plants​

Washington — President Trump on Monday will announce that a leading Taiwanese semiconductor chip company plans to invest $100 billion in new manufacturing plants in the U.S., two sources tell CBS News.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC, is one of the world's three largest manufacturers of semiconductor chips, and plans to make the major investment over the next four years, the sources said.

Mr. Trump expected to make the announcement at a 1:30 p.m. event in the Roosevelt Room of the White House. The Wall Street Journal was first to report the investment pledge.

TSMC is a major player in the semiconductor space. The company was promised $6.6 billion in funding under the Biden-era CHIPS and SCIENCE Act of 2022, and announced plans for its first U.S. plant in Arizona.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/com...S&cvid=45a89099c9e545a790b80d9a6cf75356&ei=28

Update.

 
I wonder if this announcement to build semiconductor plants in the USA is indicative of some agreement with China to let them do as they please with Taiwan after the USA secures/relocates it's strategic interest in the region. :paperbag:
 
This has always bothered me. How the markets waits breathlessly for figures to be released and then there's this immediate reaction to the release and huge swings in certain segments one way or the other.

Then a month later, or a quarter later, those "figures" that swung the market so wildly would be revised one way or the other.

Seems to me personally, that if I reacted to these figures and got burned because they weren't accurate then I sure as hell wouldn't be waiting breathlessly for the next release (GDP, jobs report, etc) to show me what my next move should be.

You know, "fool me once"...

Why markets continue to anticipate and react to these releases baffles me.

Its all controlled and part of their game. The reason is simple, they can steal more money this way.
 
As evidence, Tastytrade did a study on earnings. Not sure how far back they went. But after earnings the Average stock moved how far from its previous value before reporting?


On net the change was nearly exactly ZERO. IE completely rigged. I put the comment in now do that from like the 1970s and I HIGHLY doubt it comes to zero.
 
UK Gold Deliveries in ‘ Technical Default’?

Could a major market correction be triggered soon? Kitco News Anchor Jeremy Szafron @JeremySzafron interviews Willem Middelkoop @wmiddelkoop, Founder and CIO of the Commodity Discovery Fund @CommodityFund, on the sidelines of PDAC 2025 @the_PDAC. Middelkoop shares his insights on the potential for a monetary reset and the move towards a multipolar world, emphasizing the need for change amidst global chaos.

Discover why he believes the U.S. is destabilizing the world and what this means for gold. Plus, hear his take on Trump's economic strategies and the future of the dollar.

Key points:
- Geopolitical risks and the potential for chaos.
- The shift to a multipolar world and de-dollarization.
- Gold's role in the monetary system and central bank demand.
- The U.S. dollar's future and potential economic strategies.
- Mining gold as a lucrative opportunity
...

Interview Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction: Ray Dalio's Warning
00:25 Gold Market Surge and Fort Knox Audit Calls
01:12 Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Concerns
03:09 Market Volatility and Overvaluation
04:42 Global Economic Risks and De-dollarization
06:42 Gold's Role in the Monetary System
12:38 Mining Industry Insights at PDAC
14:27 US Dollar and Global Trade Dynamics



 
WTF are they actually doing?



Food for thought:
Vince Lanci said:
... here’s the bottom line. We imported so much gold over the last three months, that it makes our trade deficit look like shit. Because it’s an import. Simultaneously we do not count the gold as an economic good. Meaning we’re buying something we have no use for as far as US data is concerned.

And so it shows GDP as too low while estimating a trade deficit is too high.

Now, knowing that the people that run our government actually believe this is true, ideologically, why would they do such a thing when it makes our trade deficit look that much worse, and our GDP that much lower?

Because they have other plans that we just don’t know about yet

 
Canadian numismatic dealers and collectors who sell and ship to the United States should be aware that the March 4 implementation of 25 per cent import tariffs has not impacted Section 321, the de minimis program that allows shipments valued under $800 USD to enter the U.S. without duties or tariffs.

Recent updates from shipping providers confirm that shipments under this threshold remain exempt from the new tariffs. Additional confirmation has also been received from postal service representatives, reinforcing that these shipments will not be affected.
...

 
Pretty soon a quarter ounce of gold is gonna be $800.
Doesn't leave much in the way of shopping options.
 
So, how bad do the stock markets tank today (or this week)?
 
I don't think we are quite ready to crash just yet. I still think we get one strong bounce left and everyone thinks we are back to normal. We have definitely now broken the uptrend lines and moving averages. I see support from SPY 550 to 560. This coming bounce should make for a weak right shoulder and then we'd have a nice potential H&S reversal top.

1741620921108.png

The Weekly gives you a better view of the big picture and just how far up we ran.

1741620991244.png
 
Yep. There were signs everywhere that this was gonna happen.

Canada elected Trudeau 2.0. Trump's animus to Canada likely won't be resolved any time soon.

China has begun tariff retaliation. Trade war is heating up.

Ukraine/Russia 'peace' devolving into a real shit show. Israel/Palestine is still a shitshow. Iran/Syria has re-entered the stage.

Government numbers (GDP, trade) are all wonky/skewed from gold imports. Federal Reserve says no crack cocaine forthcoming for the markets.

Crypto markets throughout the weekend were flashing a big red warning siren.

:paperbag:
 
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