The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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Self conscious gay <redacted - see forum guidelines on epithets>. Already sprouting man tits at this age.

 
They pulled out the Silver Hammer again last night but both gold and silver seem to be quite resilient. Watching the action it seems to me that the issue lay in silver delivery. It looks to be that much stronger than gold at the moment on a relative basis. I'm half expecting silver to do one of its rapid charges forward before the end of the year. It looks like a reasonable setup to me.
 
Zeihan is a BRIC's sceptic, quite dismissive of their potential to achieve anything of meaning.

 
GDX Weekly. The setup looks to favour the long side for the coming weeks. ROC on the up and momentum has turned up along with others like STO.

 
Not sure what the actual stats are but every GD analyst out there is calling for a correction. They may be right at some point in the next 12 months. The problem is you could go broke trying to short everything in the meantime.
So far no recession although the revisions to some data is staggering. I think March unemployment was adjusted up 300k. 300k? WTF? More and more it appears the data is just made up by whatever Gov agency is releasing it.
 
Cigarlover said:
so I did nothing.
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There is your tell.

It takes years of intensive training to fade your own ass! and even then most of us mortals still fail.

https://giphy.com/KWzzTbkhDvmQU
I reckon 13200 to 13500 is a reasonable target, not the big short... too much crash noise around. The market rarely lets these people look like heroes.

All the caveats, stops etc, could turn on you for a week or two before going south or just not happen.
 
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The big question I have to ask is this. If we are headed for a recession then why aren't the markets reflecting that? The markets are always looking forward 6 -12 months.
 
Cigarlover said:
Not sure what the actual stats are but every GD analyst out there is calling for a correction.
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Yup... which means the market has or is pricing it in now. They might be right for a bit then we will turn around --> JMO and baring a shock event that isn't expected as of today.
 
Cigarlover said:
The big question I have to ask is this. If we are headed for a recession then why aren't the markets reflecting that?
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Capital flows, if bonds are selling off, where does the money go? Ditto stocks... like a seesaw, it doesn't have to make absolute sense, it just has to be relatively better. They are paid to beat the market, not be out of the market. At some point, gold will look attractive as this game rocks back and forth. --> JMO.

Cigarlover said:
The markets are always looking forward 6 -12 months.
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I think they are still discounting Fed capitulation at some point.
 
US10Y Weekly - Looks like we are going to test that 4% level again. This chart is looking like the rise is priced in, at least for the near term.

 
VIX Daily - Looks like it is working its way up over a wider time frame, on the verge of some accelerated movement if we break 18 or so. That will excite the crash crowd for a while. It will be informative to see golds response.

 
WSS had Adrian Day on today or yesterday. He said recession means lower silver and gold prices short term. Same thing happened in the 70's. Lower metals prices for about 8 months then off to the races.

Everyone looking at the 70's like that's the model to follow but I would say this is a very different world and financial system than that of the 70's.
 
Expect the VIX to approach 30 as we mean revert on the SPX etc.. That will likely signal that the correction is ending, and trend reversal is in play. I'm guessing that happens near those averages.
 
Cigarlover said:
WSS had Adrian Day on today or yesterday. He said recession means lower silver and gold prices short term. Same thing happened in the 70's. Lower metals prices for about 8 months then off to the races.
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Think back a little, was that the period we were in denial about the idea of stagnating inflation? The time that stagflation became a thing?

Cigarlover said:
Everyone looking at the 70's like that's the model to follow but I would say this is a very different world and financial system than that of the 70's.
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Absolutely, I don't know that it will be that instructive this time. The 70s were all about the USA, now there are many more moving parts.

With full respect to Adrian, him being reserved is more bullish than not. We never go hard when all the gold bulls are in full voice and feeling confident.

Just sayin...
 
That said... I do believe Zulauf's 2024 call for gold is going to be near the money. I think he made it 2 years ago now... full respect.
 
Picturing the real pace of rate rises this time around. US2Y on a quarterly scale. Check out that Rate Of Change chart. Impressive. Trigger for a global reset? You decide.

 

FWIW GOAU and GDX are pretty much joined at the hip in terms of performance. Frankly, I don't think that ETF buyers look at the stocks that closely... this is why they buy ETF's after all.
 
BTC USD Weekly - Not looking strong IMO, I suspect it will trade with the NASDAQ and not with Gold.

 
Silver being driven by September contracts rolling forward. As OI contracts, pressure will increase until we sort out delivery. Always the potential flash point. First delivery next Friday. Option expiry on Monday.

 
I love me some dark Pigeon. If you haven't found him he is worth a listen, I've had him on my radar for a decade or so... youtube kicks him to the curb so you might not have picked up on his stuff up there in the USSA. Always thought-provoking, even if you don't agree! Well off to the right of Dark Horse but not in a redneck fashion.

 
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