The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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ASX Gold Tribe only 1% today as opposed to 4% yesterday. Will see how the day ends... but so far it looks like they knew this would play as it did. I suspect we will see buying into EOD.
 
DXY on the weekly has 8 green bars in a row. My chart settings go back 3 years and never seen that in 3 years. Dolla seems due for cooling off period.

A few weeks back to ~102 would be a back of trendline test on my chart. It would look about right.

DXY_2023-09-06_10-41-17.png
 

SILVER ALERT! US Mint Sells 717K Silver Eagles in ONE DAY! Are the Good Guys in Charge?! (Bix Weir)​

 
I wound up selling about 80% of my short term slv option contracts near the recent top. Made a 4 bagger on my original outlay. Very unusual for me to trade with calm, reason, and common sense. At this point I'm inclined to use the proceeds to buy a few slightly out of the money Jan '25 slv calls. You only go 'round once...
 

SILVER ALERT! US Mint Sells 717K Silver Eagles in ONE DAY! Are the Good Guys in Charge?! (Bix Weir)​



This was covered by Bix at the 20min mark above... apparently, the FDC has to disclose banks that are insolvent. Assets held for sale that are underwater.

Screenshot 2023-09-05 at 8.46.59 PM.png
 
This was covered by Bix at the 20min mark above... apparently, the FDC has to disclose banks that are insolvent. Assets held for sale that are underwater.

View attachment 10295
Unless it's one of the big boys it really isn't a big deal. Bigger banks will swallow the little guys if the fed doesn't bail em out like they already have done. If there are lots of insolvent banks then they have a problem. Or do they? Would they have a problem or would the American taxpayer have a problem? As we saw in 08, we gave them 700 billion and didn't even bat an eye. If they want a trillion or 2 now they would give out to them. Biden surely isn't going to get in the way. Just make a donation to one of the grandkids foundations and he will sign off on anything.
 
ASX Gold Tribe only 1% today as opposed to 4% yesterday. Will see how the day ends... but so far it looks like they knew this would play as it did. I suspect we will see buying into EOD.

Some buying came into it, ended up 0.5%
 
The gold market is seeing renewed selling as rising inflation pressure from higher oil prices continues to support the Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy bias, boosting the U.S. dollar and pushing bond yields higher.
...

 
The adults are back in charge. They want to push this pos for President one day.


 
Give up, you crazy silver bugs.

:giveup:

j/k
NEVER!!!

Alright, I admit it. I am addicted. I do something Zed has cautioned against in the past - trade in a market where I feel like I have skin in the game. Lately it seems as if the gyrations that silver is put thru are so predictable, that it is theoretically possible to win on both ends. When it is getting clobbered you can pick up some low premium metal, and a few option calls if the stars align. When it runs, or get squeezed, it is possible to make a little scratch selling your options. This will not always work, but with some money management thrown into the mix, it has possibility. The flip side of trading a market one is emotionally wedded to is that one starts to get a decent feel for where we are short and medium term, after having the shit kicked out of them so many times before...
 
Gold and Silver Daily - As noted, so far this is looking like a classic moving average rinse and repeat. There should be a buy here somewhere soon.

GC1!_2023-09-07_07-59-58.pngSI1!_2023-09-07_07-59-18.png
 
Eventually he will be right.


 
The inversion of the yield curve has "incredible" predictive powers, and it is now telling investors that a global financial crisis 2.0 could hit the world economy in 2024, said George Gammon, an investor, macroeconomics expert, and host of the Rebel Capitalist Show.
...
However, according to Gammon, this yield curve inversion is the key sign that a "black swan" event is coming because it points to what financial insiders are doing behind the scenes. "These financial insiders that control billions, if not trillions of dollars, have insider information, and it's not illegal insider information, but they have access to details that we don't have," Gammon noted.

When those financial insiders, or as Gammon described it — "a global intel syndicate," get a signal that something could be going off the rails, they buy the long end of the curve — the 10-year Treasuries and the 30-year Treasuries.

"This creates more demand. Therefore, the price goes up, and the yield goes down. Then, you combine this with the Federal Reserve raising rates at the front end of the curve. That's why it inverts," Gammon explained. "Is this because China is going to blow up? Is this because we're going to have a World War III? Is this because the commercial real estate market is going to blow up the balance sheet of all these regional banks that will have this systemic risk with the euro-dollar system? We don't know, but I can almost assure you that the Warren Buffett types do. And as a result, they buy that long into the curve."
...
The host of the Rebel Capitalist Show clarified that investors won't see a serious economic fallout until the curve uninverts.

"What I would suggest all of your viewers do is very simple — just watch the 2-year and the 10-year. Right now, the 2-year yield is trading above the 10-year. Watch for that to slowly go down," he said. "When it gets down to that 10-year level and then drops below it, that's when you really have to be risk-off, and that's when you really have to be paying attention."

There is a very high probability that the yield curve could uninvert when the Federal Reserve starts dropping rates, Gammon pointed out. But the only way that could happen is if there is a black swan event in the form of a global financial crisis 2.0.

"What type of economic environment would we have to have in order for Jerome Powell to drop rates from 5.5% straight back down to 4%, 3%, 2%, maybe even back down to zero? That would require some sort of black swan … That would require some sort of, unfortunately, world war or a GFC 2.0 [global financial crisis]. And I think that's what that yield curve is predicting right now."
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