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Voodoo said:
The Wall St boys were too dumb to understand and see that time coming.
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No they are not, you have to stop thinking like that. They are paid to do a job, which they do. They have to keep money in the market, and they have to beat the index. That is their job, so they will invest until the bitter end like their bonuses depend on it, which they do. It's not their money, after all. We need to keep that in mind, the creature is what it is, calling it stupid is analytically useless. Knowing what it will do and why is a better approach.
 
Zed said:
No they are not, you have to stop thinking like that. They are paid to do a job, which they do. They have to keep money in the market, and they have to beat the index. That is their job, so they will invest until the bitter end like their bonuses depend on it, which they do. It's not their money, after all. We need to keep that in mind, the creature is what it is, calling it stupid is analytically useless. Knowing what it will do and why is a better approach.
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I mean sure... Wall Street is a pretty broad brush. There are the ones who are in on the deal and know exactly what they are doing and got pretty good at it.

But I'd say the majority of regulars have no idea. Take for instance the guy who started Think-or-swim and now runs Tasty works. He's very good at trading in the system that has developed over the time-frame of options. But he has no clue when owning bonds. He's long them right now and been getting killed (though he's got plenty of money and trades really small).
 
pmbug said:
Interest payments rising as the Fed raises rates?
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Of course, its a quadruple whammy. They are making a heck of a lot more bonds to sell and having to promise more and more money in repayments to get someone to buy. If this sounds like a feed-back loop it is.
 
The ASX Gold tribe are off 1% or so this AM. Basically, that is a bit of a yawn against the US reaction, it is looking like the majority of the sellers have sold for now.
 
Voodoo said:
The FED does NOT control interest rates. Edit: TL:DW interest rates are blowing out to the upside.

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Wrong on Silver until right. 2- 3 years should be enough I would think. These guys get hot and they get cold. Most a large majority I would say no no more than we do.
 
Zed said:
The ASX Gold tribe are off 1% or so this AM. Basically, that is a bit of a yawn against the US reaction, it is looking like the majority of the sellers have sold for now.
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Coming into support on a few for what it's worth. SILJ has a bottom at around $8 around a year ago.
 
Lancers32 said:
Coming into support on a few for what it's worth. SILJ has a bottom at around $8 around a year ago.
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Might do it again, downside mo tends to exhaust itself a little deeper than it is today. Notable sentiment divergence from silver (background), should be a rocket ship ride back at some point.

SILJ_2023-09-27_11-22-22.png
 
That dollar needs to stop or the 2020 lows may not hold for some of these miners. AG. 020 low was around 4.20. Thats next support and if that doesn't hold then 2018 lows of 2.40 are next.
Screen Shot 2023-09-27 at 1.03.42 AM.png
 
Now look at a silver chart. That low of 2020 until now sure looks like a giant bull flag. Years of sideways consolidation. When this finally blasts off James Webb may not be able to find it. :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:Screen Shot 2023-09-27 at 1.41.40 AM.png
 
Zed said:
Tomato, tomato...

I've still got to get through the next 20 years and the system could last that long... or not... The fact is, I don't know. I thought 2008 would do it, yeah well, 15 years later.
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It's not though. There are some very important distinctions. First, there is NO limit to how high rates can go. Just look at other/previous examples. Clearly those are not sustainable, for the type of economy that we have been used to. So, I see those interest rates blowing higher as Evidence that the collapse has begun, whether intentionally started or not, it can quickly run away from the control mechanisms.
 
This gold market is so different from the early 2000s. From 2000 to 2008 gold went up because it was a bull market. Now nobody will touch metals unless there’s some sort of easing or money printing. The expectation is in this market there must be a trigger for the metals to go up, and until that trigger comes, the expectation is gold will do nothing, but go down.
 
Short term, it looks like we just have to wait till there’s capitulation before the thing turns around
 
That last chart was the incorrect data series on both counts, these two charts are a better picture...

Tax v Total Costs.

1695852235735.png

Tax v Interest Rate Costs.

1695852412225.png

Currently, interest accounts for ~1T of ~6.5T in total costs.

NB: Total tax take pre-pandemic was ~2T, it is probable that you head back toward that level as the post 2008 cash flush and aftermath suggests.

Regardless, you are still spending 2x the tax take and filling the gap with debt.

I guess that could go to 3x in a couple of years on a reduced tax take?!

How many x is too much?
 
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