The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

Welcome to the Precious Metals Bug Forums

Welcome to the PMBug forums - a watering hole for folks interested in gold, silver, precious metals, sound money, investing, market and economic news, central bank monetary policies, politics and more. You can visit the forum page to see the list of forum nodes (categories/rooms) for topics.

Why not register an account and join the discussions? When you register an account and log in, you may enjoy additional benefits including no Google ads, market data/charts, access to trade/barter with the community and much more. Registering an account is free - you have nothing to lose!

OK... it looks like there is quite a bit more in the way of Federal Income. Current Receipts is a better picture.



ChatGPT.

The FRED data series "FGRECPT" stands for "Federal Government Current Receipts, Billions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate." This data series represents the total current receipts of the U.S. federal government on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, measured in billions of dollars. Current receipts include various sources of revenue collected by the federal government, such as taxes, fees, and other income.
These receipts are a critical component of the federal government's budget and fiscal health, as they fund various government programs and services. The seasonally adjusted annual rate allows for a better understanding of trends and patterns in federal government revenue over time by accounting for seasonal fluctuations.

You can access this data series and its historical data on the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) website, which is maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. It provides a wealth of economic and financial data for researchers, analysts, and policymakers.

Not quite as bad then!
 
I see trouble brewing just ahead. The dollar is screaming higher. The price of oil is screaming higher. This will keep inflation data stronger. This will keep interest rates up. This will keep the dollar up. This will make servicing the national debt more onerous. The economy is palpably in the toilet. Something will have to give here. My guess is that the Fed will cave, turn dovish, and allow the dollar to come screaming back down to earth. When it does then, and perhaps only then, the metals will shine again. In the meantime, buckle up.
 
That's 4.8T v 6.45T netting 1.65T to add to the debt each year. Pre-pandemic it was 3.7T of total income. Possibly upping the net needed to ~2.5T ish.
 
GDX Daily - Looks like this is the start of a capitulation phase. If so, momentum should roll down further while ROC starts to hold up at some point. IMO, the buy is coming up for the run into years end. DYODD and be careful, it could be here or down further @ low 25's

.
 
GDXJ Daily - Interestingly, this didn't sell off as badly as GDX. It would suggest that spec buying is underway in the better leveraged instruments. That said, it is in a bit of an air pocket here, maybe support @ ~31.

 
I concur. Metals and indexes may turn around anytime and run for end of year. I am waiting and watching carefully. When it turns jump on them magnificent 7 and hang on until end of year.
 
DXY Daily - Looking strong but getting into resistance here. ROC is waning a little. I'd bet on a correction in the next 1 point or so. We MIGHT tag 108, that might be your gold stock low. I'd expect 105 downside and support @ the 50DMA or so, maybe 104 if it is a fast move. So maybe 4pts max correction from the high. It just looks like it needs a breather soonish. That may be sideways again... will review as it unfolds... well IF. LOL

 
SPX Daily - Support on what I'd call a minor level. Buying is kicking in here. Watch the volume, it could be a pop, then drop to the final low in this move. If we get a couple of solid green days on low volume, expect lower. 4179 is still in the picture IMO. Watch the volume.

 
NDX Daily - I expect it top lead the SPX. Holding up here would look about right. We have a lower low, the next rally needs to undo that with a higher high if this is a turn up. The 50DMA @ 15147 could be the cap. If so, looks like the downtrend is here for a while longer. Maybe 500 to 600 pts upside soonish. I'm not sure if I'd stick my neck out further than that. If the 200DMA breaks now or after the bounce, we could be looking @ 12K in 24. That would get the rates down IMO....

 
Take a look at the DXY in 2014. Thats the last time it went up 12 weeks in a row. Corrected for 2 or 3 weeks I thin then went screaming higher again. Of course that was coming from a much lower level as well.
 
VIX Daily - Entering the game on zone from below has led to some fast moves to 30 in the past. Beyond 30 is the "fucked bucket". Fast move coming right up? Be wary...

 
Cigarlover said:
Take a look at the DXY in 2014. Thats the last time it went up 12 weeks in a row. Corrected for 2 or 3 weeks I thin then went screaming higher again. Of course that was coming from a much lower level as well.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't discount that... Gold was mixed. This year-end could look like this.

 
Bought some SILJ today. Might be early might regret it but with all the small buys over the last little while I still haven't acquired enough to watch prices in the overnight. Got a long way to go before the position is meaningful at least for me.
 
Lancers32 said:
Bought some SILJ today. Might be early might regret it but with all the small buys over the last little while I still haven't acquired enough to watch prices in the overnight. Got a long way to go before the position is meaningful at least for me.
Click to expand...

Silver was 16 & 18 the last time we did this... crazy cheap really, assuming silver isn't about to leap from the sky!

 
Zed said:
What are we seeing out there? I'm still seeing too much crash calling for me to think it is going to happen. What about you?
Click to expand...
Qt should be leading to a pullback in the markets. Higher interest rates should slow down the economy and drive unemployment higher which should lead to a recession. There's no question we have bubbles everywhere that need to pop. I think Powell is doing all he can to try and pop them.
I forget where I saw it but I saw a chart recently showing the fed raising interest rates and then the markets heading down as interest rates top out and remain high. This was a historical chart showing those things. Once the markets headed south interest rates lowered.
That being said I think we are close to the high in interest rates and now we wait and see. When does the market pullback and price in a recession? From here I mean. Could be now through the 1st quarter of next year or could be 1st and 2nd quarter of next year that the market drops 20-30% maybe...

It's always in the back of my mind that all these fund managers have to be invested in something. They cant go into money markets and they cant short so all they can do is buy on the long side. One reason why I think valuations are so high.
In my mind gold and silver stocks have already crashed anywhere from 30-90%. Not sure how much lower they can go.
The rest of the market is anyones guess. Mine is that we rally into the end of the year and then next year pull back and go sideways into the elections.
Daytrading options on the indexes is the only thing keeping my account green. My stocks head lower just about everyday so when things do turn around I should end up having a pretty decent year. If I did lose it all I wouldn't even care. House and land is paid for and metals are buried somewhere safe. I only have a little currency invested and if I do well I'll buy more metal and bury it. If I do really well I'll buy a porshe gt3 rs and go have fun. LOL.
 
Silver Daily - Messy, still looks better than gold re support for now. Most unusual, really. That said, we are on the edge of free fall and only 572 contracts open in October delivery hitting next week. We all watch big delivery months for the stress, you know it may just come from a smaller month. The straw that breaks the camel's back and all that.

 
Silver December Put Call ratio... low is seen as excessive optimism! Potentially a top, LOL, yeah OK, silver excessively optimistic! Hmmmmm...

 
I think 1850 was a crazy call I made a couple months ago on here. Doesn't seem so crazy now. . Silvier is sitting right on my upward trend line on the daily charts.

Interestingly, the chart on ZSL is right at the top. If that breaks out of the channel then look out below for silver. A run up to the 26-27 area would put silver around 16-17 probably. Maybe a little lower and might drag gold down with it. I honestly can't imagine that happening though. My guess is this stays within the channel and the metals reverse course soon and start heading higher into years end like they always do.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Menu
Log in
Register
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more…