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Makes no sense when every green manufacturer out there needs silver to produce solar panels and EV's. Unless of course they short the heck out of it to buy physical cheap. I'm sure they can use JPM to handle things for them.EXK just decimated. Cut in nearly half in just 10 weeks, while silver went from $25 to $21. What a steep decline!
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Never does.Yeah it looks pretty bad but when the time comes to buy it ain't gonna look good.
So I'm guessing Armstrong was wrong with his buy Gold by July prediction. Might be a good idea to unplug the computer and plug it back in.
The U.S. economy could be close to a tipping point as bond yields see a bear steepening across the curve, with the long end rising sharply this week.
Although gold continues to see some strong selling pressure, analysts note that the precious metal remains relatively resilient as long-term U.S. bonds continue to rise. Wednesday, 30-year yields rose to a high of 5%, its highest level since August 2007; at the same time, 10-year yields are trading around 4.8%, a fresh 16-year high.
Meanwhile, gold is managing to hold initial support above $1,830 an ounce. December gold futures last traded at $1840.10 an ounce, roughly neutral on the day.
Analysts have noted that the rise in bond yields is creating a market environment similar to that of previous recessionary periods.
"I feel things in 4Q 2023 are shaping up like some combination of 1987, with the bond price collapse before the stock market crash, and 2008, when crude oil peaked," said Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. "In 2008, gold went from about $1,000 an ounce down to $700, before embarking on the rally to the 2011 high around $1,900. I see parallels. Gold ETF outflows, I think, are partially due to the overwhelming force of the US government 2yr note above 5% and most inflation measures declining below 5%. The sell-off in treasuries, I think, is a last gasp aligned with the spike in crude oil."
While bond yields do have room to move higher, analysts have said that they are probably getting close to a peak, particularly as the U.S. labor market starts to cool.
Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets, said markets will be sensitive to disappointing economic data ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls report. The comments come after private payrolls processor ADP said that the private sector added only 89,000 jobs last month, significantly missing expectations.
Aslam added that he sees bond yields reaching a peak, even as the Federal Reserve continues to maintain its restrictive monetary policies for the foreseeable future.
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Pacific Investment Management Co. co-founder and erstwhile “bond king” Bill Gross no longer thinks bonds are an attractive investment, but at least they’re better than stocks.
In any case, he doesn’t recommend investing in either for the long term at these levels.
“I’d pass on stocks and bonds in terms of future total returns,” Gross said in his latest investment outlook, which was released Wednesday.
Instead, Gross suggested that investors embrace slightly more sophisticated strategies, like merger-arbitrage plays — that is, when traders take a position in, or bet against, a stock that’s involved in a pending transaction.
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Why is Gross so bearish? Simply put, rising Treasury yields mean stocks are now looking overvalued based on their forward earnings.
He cited a chart from Goldman Sachs Group analysts that he may have modified to illustrate a troubling divergence between forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 index and the level of real yields, which represent bond yields after being adjusted for inflation.
“As the updated Goldman Sachs chart shown below might suggest, S&P 500 forward P/E multiples have for the last 5 years been correlated to real 10 year Treasury yields with the exception of the last 12 months or so,” Gross said.
Based on where yields are now, the forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 should be closer to 12x, instead of its current level, which according to FactSet is just under 18x.
When it comes to bonds, Gross’s bearishness stems from the expectation that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell won’t be able to meaningfully lower interest rates any time soon with inflation seemingly stuck at a rate north of 3%.
“Personally, I don’t believe Powell will be willing or able to lower short rates significantly in the face of a 3% inflation future,” he said.
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Nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 for the month, better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 170,000 and more than 100,000 higher than the previous month, the Labor Department said Friday in a much-anticipated report. The unemployment rate was 3.8%, compared to the forecast for 3.7%.
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Investors have been on edge lately that a resilient economy could force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high and perhaps even hike more as inflation remains elevated.
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Nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 for the month, better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 170,000 and more than 100,000 higher than the previous month, the Labor Department said Friday in a much-anticipated report. The unemployment rate was 3.8%, compared to the forecast for 3.7%.
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so payrolls increased above expectation and the unemployment rate was higher than expectation .........
Am I missing something ?
Lot of jobs for busboys last month huh?
Looks like a reversal to me but lets see what next week brings.
JPow says, "raise the rates!"
I bought more junk today Gold and Silver. They just have a sold out look this week. Uranium kicked up off the lows from early this week. I like them if you can withstand a drawdown if the late week surge is reversed.Yeah, I'm looking a few candles that have that reversal look... I'm just too scared to post anything in case I invite the wrath of the gods.
A gain is a gain.Weekend Trend Trader just sold UUUU (Energy Fuels Inc) for +3.22% gain.
It closed below the stop loss level of 8.12.
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RIP Jim Sinclair. 82 seems kinda young.
The Gold Community Loses an Icon: James E. Sinclair, 1941–2023
An icon dedicated to sharing his vital financial wisdom has passed. Jim Sinclair was a titan of the precious metals world -- a titan both in terms of intellect, and in his commitment to sound money based on real, tangible assets.guildinvestment.substack.com
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