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Lancers32 said:
It was comical before but this whole UFO nonsense leads me to believe we are being trolled.
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They are emboldened to the point they believe that we will swallow ANYTHING they spin our way, sadly for many that is true.

If you have a brain, it sure as sh!t feels like a full-blown troll attack.
 
Goldhedge said:
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Hopefully this slows down demand for houses and brings prices back to earth. In the DC area things are insane. My daughter has been trying to buy a house for 3 years and they constantly get outbid. Everything goes for way over ask. Last weekend a house came on the market for 600. They bid 650 and one of the other 4 offers was 690. This was all within a 24 hr period. Lots of frustration out there from people who are in the same boat. Part of the problem I see is that so many are buying for rentals now. They had been renting for 3 years for 2900. They wanted to re up for 2 more years. landlord said 3600 and would only extend for 30 days. Lots of places also only want to do 6 month leases because rents are going up so fast.
A recession is badly needed but the fed gov keeps spending like drunken sailers. Politicians cant afford their rents in DC? No problem, they pass a law so that we pay the rents for them.
 
The day Ted dies is the day that silver will go mental... life, it's like that.

silverseek.com

More on the Silver Code Red

The one saving grace for higher silver prices is the physical shortage, which grows more pronounced daily. Surely, continued suppressed prices will not resolve the physical shortage, regardless of continued regulatory failure.
silverseek.com silverseek.com
 
Paper Assets: According to Raoul, derivates, ETFs, and other levered products are built like a house of cards. Take gold for example… “Gold becomes a financial asset as opposed to a real asset,” says Raoul. “Physical gold in the system is now just collateral for this huge 100x leveraged ecosystem… When central banks take ownership of physical gold, price collapses instead of going up — because they’re removing the collateral from the system.”

OK, splain this to me like I am 5 years old.
 
Zed said:
Paper Assets: According to Raoul, derivates, ETFs, and other levered products are built like a house of cards. Take gold for example… “Gold becomes a financial asset as opposed to a real asset,” says Raoul. “Physical gold in the system is now just collateral for this huge 100x leveraged ecosystem… When central banks take ownership of physical gold, price collapses instead of going up — because they’re removing the collateral from the system.”

OK, splain this to me like I am 5 years old.
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That's Pal I believe? The guy who is so big on Bitcoin? The electronic asset developed by the govt?
 
Cigarlover said:
Hopefully this slows down demand for houses and brings prices back to earth. In the DC area things are insane. My daughter has been trying to buy a house for 3 years and they constantly get outbid. Everything goes for way over ask. Last weekend a house came on the market for 600. They bid 650 and one of the other 4 offers was 690. This was all within a 24 hr period. Lots of frustration out there from people who are in the same boat. Part of the problem I see is that so many are buying for rentals now. They had been renting for 3 years for 2900. They wanted to re up for 2 more years. landlord said 3600 and would only extend for 30 days. Lots of places also only want to do 6 month leases because rents are going up so fast.
A recession is badly needed but the fed gov keeps spending like drunken sailers. Politicians cant afford their rents in DC? No problem, they pass a law so that we pay the rents for them.
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Buy silver as a hedge?

I'd tell her to wait n see, but dang a 30% increase in rent!!

It's unsustainable and will crash, the question is when?
 
Goldhedge said:
Cardboard box sales

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Excellent, one of those great growth data proxies that .gov can't fake. You can see we were on the edge in 2019 when magically the central bankers ran into an excuse to stimulate the nutz off the economy in what could only be described as a gross overreaction at the point it was done. Almost like they were fighting something other than the headline issue. Anywhoooooooo, the C19 bump is way smaller than I would have expected given the buying from home that went on... surprising.
 
Lancers32 said:
That's Pal I believe? The guy who is so big on Bitcoin? The electronic asset developed by the govt?
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Yes, still huge on BTC and Solana alongside his "exponential age" thesis. IMO, it has some merit, but I think that we have major hurdles before it fully comes into play.

Given the pass, BTC has received from the folks that are normally paranoid about any currency competition, it's rational to believe that they have a hand in BTC at some level. At the very least, it has great experimental value, even if it becomes an abandoned project down the road.
 
I'm not really sure about all this. Unless these guys are completely stupid, and you cannot discount the idea that "Trump derangement syndrome" makes you completely stupid, they must realise that every time they do this he becomes more popular. That isn't a matter of conjecture, all they have to do is look @ the polling numbers around the country.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

So the question becomes... do the same people own both sides of this fence? Are we looking at a manufactured reactionary tidal wave of support that will usher in Mr T who then disables democracy somehow, temporarily "off course", in the name of fighting the corruption in "the swamp" that is in itself a threat to democracy?

Yes it's a "bat shit crazy" line of reasoning but given our "bat shit crazy" world I'm sticking it out there at the start of this election process.

If we get a clean election, with none of the argy-bargy we had last time, and a clear victory for Mr T I'm going to be somewhat cautious about how positive that really is.

Part of me believes that they own the whole playing field. Mr T did hang with the Clinton's and was a Democrat for a long time!

Cynical, maybe... confused, definitely! LOL.
 
Stewart Thompson calls an exit...

2023aug1stkusa1.png
 
Zed said:
Interesting...
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It's entirely logical. The velocity of money shit the bed when everyone (and the economy) was essentially locked down during C19. Once normalized economic activity resumed, velocity spiked as folks had some pent up desires to get out and enjoy things (and having extra stimulus funds sloshing around didn't hurt either!).
 
Fitch Ratings downgraded the United States' long-term foreign currency issuer default rating to AA+ from AAA on Tuesday, pointing to "expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years," an erosion of governance and a growing general debt burden.

"The repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions have eroded confidence in fiscal management," said Fitch.
...
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www.cnbc.com

Fitch downgrades U.S. long-term rating to AA+ from AAA

The rating agency cited "expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years."
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

Curious timing. The debt limit debacle is old news...
 

Inflation: Most Brutal Form Of Taxation | Michael Pento​

 
pmbug said:
It's entirely logical. The velocity of money shit the bed when everyone (and the economy) was essentially locked down during C19. Once normalized economic activity resumed, velocity spiked as folks had some pent up desires to get out and enjoy things (and having extra stimulus funds sloshing around didn't hurt either!).
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...and now?
 
Zed said:
...and now?
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I think there are a lot of folks buying the Fed's coolaid about no recession and aren't adopting a defensive position with business or consumer spending. Lot's of Alfred E. Neumans out there ("what, me worry?"). I could be wrong though.
 
pmbug said:
I think there are a lot of folks buying the Fed's coolaid about no recession and aren't adopting a defensive position with business or consumer spending. Lot's of Alfred E. Neumans out there ("what, me worry?"). I could be wrong though.
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The Eurodollar guys are talking about very defensive positions being taken. Credit card debt is also blowing out. I'd have expected a slowing in M2 velocity. Maybe the data is laggy, I don't know.
 
Voodoo said:
It's called inflation guys. They are probably having to start monetize the debt. Not enough buyers anymore.
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Both M1 & M2 are contracting. M3 would be as well, if there was still an M3.

It is categorically a deflationary period.

There are plenty of buyers for government paper, especially short term, @ these rates. Generally speaking, everyone of size who isn't 'buying' the stock market at these levels is taking 4+% 'risk-free' with glee.

So? Who is wrong?
 
Zed said:
It is categorically a deflationary period.
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I guess the caveat to that is money supply measured against real growth in demand/need for a bigger/smaller pool of dollars. AKA, What is the neutral point in terms of money supply for a growing or shrinking economy. Is the money supply at the moment just shrinking along with the shrinking real demand for it. I don't know, and I don't see that we can ever determine what that neutral point really is. We simply don't have those numbers, at least not ones I'd trust.
 
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