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Zed said:
Well, not convinced, that is just what the data reflects. It is what it is...

I listened to hedge fund guy saying that general supply destruction due to vaccine damage is greater than we realise. All the people that can do shit are bailing out of the system according to him. We are looking at a manual skills' dearth in the near future. That will drive some prices harder than we imagine, according to him.
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Thats interesting. I already see that around here in my little hillbilly town. 35-50 an hr cash if you have any skills at all. All the hours you want to work too. Then places like big box stores that were desperate not long ago have now been dropping their per hr wages. Positions have mostly been filled up so no longer offering competitive wages.
 
Stonedywankanobe said:
This guy was supposedly down in Little Rock a few weeks back, though I can’t confirm. Apparently is a tough market for sidekicks.

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I'm surprised Biden hasn't nominated him for some high level position. I think he needs someone new to manage our nuclear waste since the last guy was arrested for stealing womens luggage at the airport.
 
Cigarlover said:
I'm surprised Biden hasn't nominated him for some high level position. I think he needs someone new to manage our nuclear waste since the last guy was arrested for stealing womens luggage at the airport.
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Oh yeah, he is the new nuclear waste czar... ahem.
 
Zed said:
I listened to hedge fund guy saying that general supply destruction due to vaccine damage is greater than we realise. All the people that can do shit are bailing out of the system according to him. We are looking at a manual skills' dearth in the near future. That will drive some prices harder than we imagine, according to him.
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Here in Blighty we are finding 'staff required' notices everywhere and getting things done by people that actually do shit, is getting harder.
So how can a self employed skilled craftsman 'bail out' ? He still has bills to pay and has no doubt created a lifestyle that needs to be serviced ...

Is he doing minium hours, ie just enough to pay the bills and downsizing that lifestyle ?
Or are we seeing a general degradation of health and people struggling to work at all ?

There are still plenty officially unemployed but it starts to look like they like it that way.
 
rblong2us said:
Here in Blighty we are finding 'staff required' notices everywhere and getting things done by people that actually do shit, is getting harder.
So how can a self employed skilled craftsman 'bail out' ? He still has bills to pay and has no doubt created a lifestyle that needs to be serviced ...

Is he doing minium hours, ie just enough to pay the bills and downsizing that lifestyle ?
Or are we seeing a general degradation of health and people struggling to work at all ?

There are still plenty officially unemployed but it starts to look like they like it that way.
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English still the official language over there?
 
Since the psychopaths seem to have no problem killing whites in Ukraine not a stretch to think of what they'll do in Africa. Ukraine soon to be abandoned this is next. Worth a punt though it has rallied quite a bit already.



SRUUF_2023-08-08_07-13-22.png
 
rblong2us said:
So how can a self employed skilled craftsman 'bail out' ?
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Retiring, many are close and have bought it forward by 5 years or so. By way of example, we have a bunch of boomer medico's in our extended family (it's massive, damn breeders!), over half of them retired after covid. They had enough to do it and just decided to take it easy for whatever time they had left. I don't know if it will stick, but they bailed to drink cocktails in the sun. I know builders that rode the covid boom and foresaw the contraction afterwards and just shut up shop. A surprising % of our skill base is of that age that it's a real option or they are unhealthy enough to get gov support for an early exit, covid or VAX complications seem to have accelerated that.

I just had a roof done, the head guy up on the roof was 70 and still running the young guys quite hard. Blew my mind, I was going to be one of his last jobs, and we were lucky to book him. I can't say it's 100% right, but anecdotally I can say I've noticed it in my sphere.
 
rblong2us said:
Is he doing minium hours, ie just enough to pay the bills and downsizing that lifestyle ?
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I suspect there is a 'slow down and smell the roses' effect. I think that might have come from the scare of knowing people hit hard by covid and the enforced break. The took a breather and thought 'what the f' am I doing, all work no play. ---> just a suspicion.

rblong2us said:
Or are we seeing a general degradation of health and people struggling to work at all ?
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I think that is also somewhat valid, I also know quite a few people that had to have pfz jabs to work in the medical system. Some of them are up to 5 now, and they seem to be getting unhealthier. Thier trust in the system is way higher than mine, I think they will wake up to the issues when it's all way too late.
 
Lancers32 said:
Since the psychopaths seem to have no problem killing whites in Ukraine not a stretch to think of what they'll do in Africa. Ukraine soon to be abandoned this is next. Worth a punt though it has rallied quite a bit already.



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Fake alien invasion is next... I heard it on the internutz. Apparently they are global warmists, and we are not looking after the planet well enough. Hi, we are from a nearby galaxy, and we are here to stop you f'ing up.

Where is my popcorn, this should be a good show! I wonder if it's on before or after Election 24? LOL.
 
Voodoo said:
Home builders and cruise line stocks all near recent highs. Makes total sense.

One last bender to kill the pain.
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Maybe not everywhere but in many places there is a home shortage. Especially around any major metropolitan area. I think one issue driving it is the fact that home prices went up so quickly, they dragged rent prices up with them. So now someone who bought a 400k home is sitting on a 700k home a few years later and the rental on that is approaching 3500-4k. Why sell when you can make bank renting it out. So obviously all those single family homes that were once on the market have become rentals and anyone who wants to buy a home has to bid on the few homes that do come on the market. 50k over ask isn't going to get it either. Closer to 100k over ask if you really want a deal.
If these homebuilders choose the right market they can make some serious money.
Lesser cities like Columbus OH the problem isn't as bad but prices are still going for way over ask.
 
Zed said:
What can I say, globally it's looking like a big bad deflation.



The Great Reset?
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When you have QT it's hard to get any growth LOL. Global recession should lead to lower prices of everything including the metals. 1400 gold and 14 silver?
 
Cigarlover said:
When you have QT it's hard to get any growth LOL. Global recession should lead to lower prices of everything including the metals. 1400 gold and 14 silver?
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Yeah, that's debatable. There is a sound argument for gold taking on its monetary role in a deflation. If the credit aspect of the money supply is where the bulk of the contraction is occurring, anti-credit gets a Guernsey. Hedgeye certainly have gold as a Quad 4 (Deflation) asset to be long.

Hard cash and near substitutes should thrive. This has what has underpinned my strong USD and even stronger gold theory for quite a while now. I'm willing to accept I could be way wrong on that, but I have not seen anything to budge me... yet.
 
Bert Dohmen, a blast from the past calling bullshit.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 

Moody’s cuts ratings of 10 U.S. banks and puts some big names on downgrade watch​

PUBLISHED TUE, AUG 8 2023

KEY POINTS
  • Among the smaller lenders receiving an official ratings downgrade were M&T Bank, Pinnacle Financial, BOK Financial and Webster Financial.
  • Major lenders Bank of New York Mellon, U.S. Bancorp, State Street, Truist Financial, Cullen/Frost Bankers and Northern Trust are now under review for a potential downgrade.
www.cnbc.com

Moody's cuts ratings of 10 U.S. banks and puts some big names on downgrade watch

Moody's on Monday cut the credit ratings of a host of small and mid-sized U.S. banks and placed several Wall Street big names on negative review.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

Screenshot 2023-08-08 at 9.32.21 PM.png
 
ASX Gold Tribe swinging from ~flat red to ~flat green today, some cautious buying going on.
 
Zed said:
Bert Dohmen, a blast from the past calling bullshit.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
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Not the only guy who got caught short the Dow and the Long Bond in 1980-1982. But hey.
 
Not sure how much to put on the muted response to Silver getting clocked yesterday by the mining shares. If Gold closes under $1890 for a few days that would be very bearish mid term.
 
14K used to be a big December delivery month... 24K in April, exceeding the previous December followed by a June matching December.... and Gold is 'bearish'?

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Favored the upside. You are allowed to change your mind but...


 
Zed said:
It's looking like we might be near a low, waiting for proof of life.
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I was just looking at the weekly charts and I agree. Downside risk seems minimal here.

2nd wave of nasty inflation in the cards for 2024/25
Throw out my 1400 gold and 14 silver call above. Thats out the window. :).
 
Panic buying in Rice, today is Nat Gas, Oil and Gasoline both very strong lately, even the Softs with some strong Up and Downs.... PM"s however still managing to be controlled. It all screams inflation is FAR from dead.
 
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