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First, you've already lost that battle. 99% of people think of Inflation as price increases and decreases. That is ultimately what they care about, not some obscure number.

Second, I think they are right and the old Austrians got this one wrong. Inflation (money supply) is a mostly pointless number. We have a debt based system and so it's ALWAYS increasing so who cares? Plus, we also know that prices can go waaay up or even down under Inflation so its also just another mostly useless stat at that point. They pointed out a tree in a forest and missed the bigger picture.

So give me the four terms and then what you call the Sum

This is pretty straightforward

Inflation = Monetary (Supply & Demand) and Physical Goods (Supply & Demand).

As opposed to what ? = Inflation/Monetary Demand and Physical Goods (Supply & Demand)?
 
Voodoo said:
We have very different definitions of Inflation. I believe this is one of those terms that has been either corrupted (like in politics the term Anarchist) or has been more accurately used. This is a good article.

Defining Inflation | Mises Institute

The U.S. government's plan to introduce an improved Consumer Price Index that theoretically would measure inflation more accurately is an exercise in futility.
mises.org mises.org

If you wanna just talk about money supply than just state that... no need for another term.

If you want "Inflation" to be ONLY the money supply then you need to invent a new term to describe the more complicated processes that increase prices.
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The mistake made in that article is the assumption that CPI is a direct measure of inflation, it isn't. CPI is one potential indication that inflation is occurring. We have just lived through an extended period of inflation that has only shown in asset markets, of course that paints us all as genius investors so no one wants to call it what it is.

The complexities lay in the way that money is created and introduced to the modern system. CPI will respond to certain types of inflation, M1 went bananas in 2020, and it hit the street in the form of prices rising however M2 and M3 (god rest its soul) have been relatively powering up for years but that part of the money supply disproportionately feeds mortgage lending and stock investment making us all believe we are investing gods. Potato, potato, both are a result of the over production of $$$. Yes, I do understand that there needs to be some growth inline with real economic growth to keep it all stable. Regardless, you can see that for a while now we have been in a deflationary impulse. Will it last... I don't know. I suspect that there isn't much they can do to keep the defunct M3 flying (hence its demise!), I think M2 will look sadder and M1 will probably grow with M0 and MZM. This will see over all monetary contraction as the higher, much larger, credit driven M's collapse but most probably keep the CPI higher than you might think possible as the lower M's are expanded in response. Over all, it may be a deflation, but on the ground you may still see price pressure. This is probably why I can't find a US M0 chart on FRED, and why the UK one stops in 2017. The case of the disappearing stats!

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Most of this is way over my head but I enjoy the discussion anyway.
So when the fed is doing QT they are basically retiring debt and in effect strengthening their balance sheet. Thats my understanding of it anyway. So where is that money being eliminated from in the economy? Is that deflationary to the overall economy? Can it be deflationary when the fed gov is spending like there is no tomorrow and now there is no debt limit until 2025 I think? As someone mentioned in one of those videos we will see some serious spending going on next year before the election to buy as many votes as possible.
 
Voodoo said:
First, you've already lost that battle. 99% of people think of Inflation as price increases and decreases. That is ultimately what they care about, not some obscure number.
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... which is why they will not understand what is actually happening.

I could give a flying fig what 99% think, the fact is the people that normally get it right understand that this is a deflationary condition for now.

A head bolt torque setting is some obscure number to most people, it still matters. LOL.

Cigarlover said:
So where is that money being eliminated from in the economy?
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The back end of the banking system.

Cigarlover said:
Is that deflationary to the overall economy?
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Hmmmm, not so much, but that isn't where this is coming from as far as I have understood things.

Look at the various PPI numbers, as pointed out in the past they are contracting and quite fast... that is a result of a deflationary condition.

Voodoo said:
We have a debt based system and so it's ALWAYS increasing so who cares?
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Well it didn't in 2008 and people seemed to care then.

Voodoo said:
They pointed out a tree in a forest and missed the bigger picture.
Click to expand...

LOL, hell no, they pointed out a subsystem that is a part of the forest thriving.

Voodoo said:
So give me the four terms and then what you call the Sum
Click to expand...

On a basic level, you have supply and demand for the given item and then supply and demand for the currency that the item is being traded in.

The next level up introduces complexities, i.e. where does the majority of the money used in the particular market come from? Financing a house is a different thing to paying for banana's or financing a car. There are different supply dynamics, granted there is bleeding between the markets but mailing cheques to all and sundry might drive banana's higher but if the mortgage market is tight then house will sit still. Maybe not the best example, but where credit is concerned you can have different risk dynamics impacting money supply one way or the other.

Voodoo said:
Inflation = Monetary (Supply & Demand) and Physical Goods (Supply & Demand).
Click to expand...

That's not an equation...

This is...

Price = (Goods and Services Supply / Goods and Services Demand) / (Monetary Supply / Monetary Demand).

Or summin like that... I dunno exactly what operators we should be using.

Voodoo said:
As opposed to what ? = Inflation/Monetary Demand and Physical Goods (Supply & Demand)?
Click to expand...

Why is it you only ever have the term inflation in your equations?

Inflation/Deflation = money supply growth - real economic growth.
 
Cigarlover said:
Can it be deflationary when the fed gov is spending like there is no tomorrow and now there is no debt limit until 2025 I think? As someone mention
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Yes, they are just subverting resources to their priorities over the market priorities. The question is are they doing it faster than the contraction, and is it monetised debt or borrowed money. Either way, it's not great IMO. They can do it one year and the net we experience is deflation but the next year, once the debt has contracted, it could be inflationary on a net basis. However, each market can have a different experience... if mortgages are hard to get in effect the housing market is experiencing deflationary pressures because that is where the money comes from at the margin. You could see M3 contract while M1 expands, food goes up, housing comes down, and it's deflation simply because the housing market is a bigger slice of the pie.

I don't think it's as straight forward as saying inflation ergo all prices go up.

JMO etc...
 
Think about why this UFO nonsense is being released now. We have to unite as a planet to fend them off. One World Order. Some people will believe any GD thing the govt tells them. Remarkable.
 
Lancers32 said:
Think about why this UFO nonsense is being released now. We have to unite as a planet to fend them off. One World Order. Some people will believe any GD thing the govt tells them. Remarkable.
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The Report from Iron Mountain "predicted" as much. Also global climate crisis fills the same need.

en.wikipedia.org

The Report from Iron Mountain - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
You can laugh later. Gonna baghold these for the duration.

PSLV PHYS SPPP SILJ HL MAG AG UUUU DNN SRUUF WEAT UNG. Lottery ticket GLO the African U company.
 
Lancers32 said:
Think about why this UFO nonsense is being released now. We have to unite as a planet to fend them off. One World Order. Some people will believe any GD thing the govt tells them. Remarkable.
Click to expand...

The two narrative questions...

1. Why am I hearing about this?

2. Why now?
 
Gold DSI at 20 and the discount of CEF to 5% decent indicators of a lower risk buy area. Sometimes. The CEF indicator worked well 20 some years ago not sure this time around but I would rather buy when the sector is out of favor than not.


 
prolly should have Blackrock and Vanguard in your portfolio too...

 
AU/GC Weekly! Will gold respect the diagonal line of death? Will the 50 moving monkey's catch the metal? Are the 200 moving monkey's laying in wait?

GC1!_2023-08-14_08-29-52.png

On the daily chart, we are in the hands of both the 50 and 200 moving monkeys!

GC1!_2023-08-14_08-46-08.png

They tend to bounce off each other a few times in significant rallies, I guess they are seen as mean reversion points, and they tend to cross at the end of meaningful rallies signifying meaningful corrections. Is this May 19 or Dec 20?.... or a sideways mélange for a handful of frustrating years? Place your bets!

Stay tuned for next week's egggggggciting episode of "Will Gold shit the bed?" same Bat Channel, same Bat Time!

{sigh}

LOL.
 
If you have the interest and time, try and fit Elliot wave patterns to the gold daily chart from late 22. I'd be interested to see what others come up with.

No interest and no time? Yeah, I get it. LOL.
 
I got no chance with Elliot if the guy who wrote the book failed with it eventually. Did have a few good years though. No thanks.
 
Lancers32 said:
I got no chance with Elliot if the guy who wrote the book failed with it eventually. Did have a few good years though. No thanks.
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I truly believe that if any technical method becomes popular, it will discount any potential it has of being correct. IMO the market discounts all knowledge eventually.

JMHO etc.
 
Zed said:
If you have the interest and time, try and fit Elliot wave patterns to the gold daily chart from late 22. I'd be interested to see what others come up with.

No interest and no time? Yeah, I get it. LOL.
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I agree with Lancers that the Elliot thing can be maddening. When I do fiddle with it I find that one has to first move out to big picture stuff in order to properly cone down on where we are at in the medium or short term. Look at this 20+ year chart:

screenshot_295.png
 
Looking at the above chart one might conclude that the 2011 top was the end of a wave three. The 2015 bottom a wave 4. So where are we now? In the midst of some complex corrective wave within a wave 5? This three year triple top looking formation from 2020 on makes it tough to call. Without knowing what the context of the bigger wave picture is, it makes calling the waves over a shorter time period somewhat arbitrary. I'd be happy to see someone try though...
 
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In the addendum to Prechter's first book the blue hard cover copy he said that Gold could still be in a bear market even if it made a new high. After I read that I looked at Elliot in a different light.
 
Lancers32 said:
In the addendum to Prechter's first book the blue hard cover copy he said that Gold could still be in a bear market even if it made a new high. After I read that I looked at Elliot in a different light.
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Yeah, I struggle with the double think on that one.
 
Getting hit straight off the bat tonight, the moving average raid is on, they are hunting for stop losses. We should see some buying this week after they have picked the low-hanging fruit.
 
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