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Zed said:
I guess the caveat to that is money supply measured against real growth in demand/need for a bigger/smaller pool of dollars. AKA, What is the neutral point in terms of money supply for a growing or shrinking economy. Is the money supply at the moment just shrinking along with the shrinking real demand for it. I don't know, and I don't see that we can ever determine what that neutral point really is. We simply don't have those numbers, at least not ones I'd trust.
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The Reverse Repo numbers are declining significantly and Rafi thinks those are being used to soak up at least a decent amount of the new Treasury debt. Pretty sure that will shrink M2. At least all the people moving money out of checking accounts and into money markets / CD's.
 
August 7th 2020 marks the top in Gold. An important bottom in this time period would not be surprising. 3 years.
 
DXY hitting that downtrend again with the ROC rolling over. Looks like it will respect that nasty old diagonal line.... for now.

DXY_2023-08-03_17-51-45.png
 
searcher said:
^^^^^^
fwiw:

www.forexlive.com

Mohamed El Erian says Fitch downgrade of the US is a strange move, likely to be dismissed | Forexlive

www.forexlive.com www.forexlive.com
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finance.yahoo.com

World’s Shrinking AAA Debt Options Include Singapore, Norway

(Bloomberg) -- The fallout from Fitch Ratings’ downgrade of the US puts the focus on the countries still holding onto the coveted top credit grade.Most Read from BloombergFitch’s US Credit Downgrade Sparks Criticism Along With UneaseMissing Goldman Sachs Analyst Confirmed Dead by New York...
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com
 
Gold August Delivery... 7746 delivered 3/8 with 3265 still open inside the delivery window. We added 84 on the 3/8, normally OI is reducing @ this point. Watching....

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Zed said:
Supply SHOCKING!



... this is not your father's great inflation.
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They are convinced that Covid was ONLY a supply caused inflation. That's completely wrong in my opinion, so yes. There is no way to separate out price inflation caused by goods supply/demand from the monetary supply/demand.
 
I grew up in a different time. A guy like this would have gotten his ass beat at worst laughed at at best.


 
I don't like to make too much out of one day but the miners could be getting trashed today. So not too bad really. This one is actually up.


ABBRF_2023-08-07_13-19-01.png
 
Stonedywankanobe said:
If that line doesn’t hold I’m selling every ounce of this shit metal and never looking back. Jmho

View attachment 9692
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Silver trend drawn using closes... Odds are we see a test of the trend, with 22.11 being the potential max low. Ideally, we see the trend being tagged and it being bought up to the 22.91 level or higher in the one session. A nice long tail low would look about right. A low @ ~ 22.50 +- 10's with an upward acceleration out of it is the rough expectation. Not really seeing much that is massively +ve just yet.

SI1!_2023-08-08_09-52-30.png
 
No one knows but I am seeing more bearishness around the internet concerning the metals.
 
TSLA - One shoulder, one head, neck around 241 with a target near trend. Let's say a potential H&S in the works. Waiting for the right shoulder to develop. Short @ 27x ish ?! Not that shorting this mongrel is safe at any time!

TSLA_2023-08-08_10-27-52.png
 
Voodoo said:
They are convinced that Covid was ONLY a supply caused inflation. That's completely wrong in my opinion,
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Well, not convinced, that is just what the data reflects. It is what it is...

I listened to hedge fund guy saying that general supply destruction due to vaccine damage is greater than we realise. All the people that can do shit are bailing out of the system according to him. We are looking at a manual skills' dearth in the near future. That will drive some prices harder than we imagine, according to him.
 
Zed said:
So you read that as...?

The contrarian in me wants to be +ve.
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I'm seeing the predictions of sub $1600 Gold and below $16 Silver again. Is it positive? Who knows but unless we are going into another bear market which I doubt I think any declines from here are good buying opportunities. Most definitively could be wrong. I am not using any leverage.
 
DXY Daily is rolling over near expectation... I'm not sure if this is going to stick, could just be a pause. We need <100 to continue the trend.

DXY_2023-08-08_11-16-55.png
 
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