The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

Welcome to the Precious Metals Bug Forums

Welcome to the PMBug forums - a watering hole for folks interested in gold, silver, precious metals, sound money, investing, market and economic news, central bank monetary policies, politics and more.

Why not register an account and join the discussions? When you register an account and log in, you may enjoy additional benefits including no Google ads, market data/charts, access to trade/barter with the community and much more. Registering an account is free - you have nothing to lose!

Status
Not open for further replies.
Voodoo said:
Panic buying in Rice, today is Nat Gas, Oil and Gasoline both very strong lately, even the Softs with some strong Up and Downs.... PM"s however still managing to be controlled. It all screams inflation is FAR from dead.
Click to expand...

Price rises are far from over... and that maybe the case in the primary sector. Regardless all the data is telling us the monetary deflation is in process. The secondary sector and the tertiary sector are having thier margins squeezed from both ends. You simply can't equate price rises with inflation. There are so many other factors at play here.

If you are going to focus on price why not look at PPI globally, everyone I have seen is declining.

This is the reason they muddied the water around the term inflation. It completely destroys your ability to analyse the situation correctly if you equate inflation with price rises.

So yeah, we may will see price rising rapidly in certain areas as a part of some sort of second wave but it's not happening for the same reasons it happened in the 70s.
 

We are Not seeing monetary deflation. One, government mind you, stat like M2 went negative? So? They are monetizing debt now which is the definition of inflation.

Either way I think we see strong Stagflation. The economy slows and demand for goods drops but commodities take off.
 

Yes we are... but you do you.

PS: Monetizing debt isn't good definition of inflation in anyway shape or form.
 
I'm not sure why the push back on the whole deflation thing. This is possibly the best environment for gold. Ultimately it will provide the largest real world gains for gold investors in terms of purchasing power and straight up value.
 
Think of it this way.

Everyone here seems to understand that in a fiat money system with fractional reserve banking and high level of debt, that most of the money represented isn't really there in physical form. Essentially a huge part of the circulating money supply is credit.

In that environment we have a federal reserve pushing rates higher at an unprecedented rate, we have a supply shock problem generated directly and indirectly by the covid pandemic and we have the price pressures caused by the wave of free money put out there by various governments around the world.

The sum total of this this huge pressure on the largest part of the money supply, that is the credit based part.

How can this not net out to deflationary pressure? This is collapsing credit globally.
 
Is this really what 'inflation' looks like...






It looks more like the production cuts are hitting home... finally!



Rice looks like it is coming back off a seasonal low, granted the market looks like it has been digesting the crushing whipsaw in 2020 for quite some time.

... but then that is the point, most markets got dislocated on what was artificial interference back then. In truth, we are probable just getting clear of the longer impact of 2020 including the financial damage done to many players.
 
Stall speed yet?



Big companies and big countries have huge momentum, I remember my father saying Xerox was hitting the wall for a decade before it really seemed to matter. The insiders knew.
 
2 videos which discuss what's coming. The ZULAUF VIDEO WAS back in Dec or january

Simon Hunt was a month ago but both discuss the coming inflation for 24 and 25.
 
I think you're correct. I know many think Powell will keep raising rates but I don't think he can raise much more. He has said he is going to keep them high longer than people expect. Not sure what that means exactly and I don't think he does either.
One of the problems I see though is that I think he is looking at the employment numbers and seeing unemployment is still very low. Are those numbers real though? How many are without work but no longer counted? How many homeless in the US? None of these people are counted as unemployed. I don't think the governments can be trusted to put out real data when it comes to unemployment.

The debt is a huge problem as well. I think one of those videos mentions that eventually they sell treasuries and all of it is used to service the debt. Once that happens services have to be cut by the government and the free shit army has to also take a cut. However before we get there they will attempt to keep everything together and the only way to do that is for Powell to reverse course and start printing again. Thats where the next wave of inflation kicks in.
 
Cigarlover said:
2 videos which discuss what's coming. The ZULAUF VIDEO WAS back in Dec or january

Simon Hunt was a month ago but both discuss the coming inflation for 24 and 25.
Click to expand...

You have to be careful about how they are using the term inflation, by far the majority of people now refer to rising prices as inflation, regardless of the driving factor. Take oil, peeps are saying inflation, but the Saudi's are cutting supply with price targets in mind.

It's really hard to have a pure conversation about it because the miss-definition is so pervasive these days.
 
Cigarlover said:
He has said he is going to keep them high longer than people expect. Not sure what that means exactly and I don't think he does either.
Click to expand...

The implication is an extended hold period, they have basically said that however the market is in denial thinking that they will and must respond to market weakness.

Who is right?
 

I dunno, looks like smoke and mirrors to me.
 

They seem to think that they can monetise it all away. Print money and buy your own debt, soft default... once the seemingly inevitable credit crunch has occurred and is washed down this would then become pure inflation. The question is how long does the US's credibility hold and how far can this game go?

Cigarlover said:
Powell to reverse course and start printing again. Thats where the next wave of inflation kicks in.
Click to expand...

So yeah, exactly.

Maybe the BRIC's settlement currency becomes a safe haven over time, maybe.

End of the month will be interesting. The news better be big else they will slam gold IMO.
 
Data providers quoting the nearest active contract are still significantly over the near contract.



1915 v 1950 0dd...

2010 out to next June.



I can't recall such a gap near v active.
 

You cannot look at JUST the supply of money and call it Inflation or Deflation. You are ignoring the Demand for money. Mostly because that is difficult to measure in a nice little chart.
 

The FED does NOT control long-term interest rates. Much to their chagrin and what they would like you to believe.
 
Inflation deflation whatever. All I know is everything with rare exception costs a helluva lot more than it used to. How long can they keep the plates spinning? Dunno I thought it was over 20 years ago yet here we are. But with the way things are going in the West now I don't think we'll have much longer to wait. No border it's just a matter of time before this comes to you. Insanity everywhere. Ex KGB guy should be Man of the Year. Imagine that.
 
You have that $3.40 bottom lurking out there but this could be considered a double bottom at $4.68. Up in pre today. Silver does not have to reach $22.00.


 
Voodoo said:
You cannot look at JUST the supply of money and call it Inflation or Deflation.
Click to expand...

Yes, you can... that is what it is. One component of an equation that can deliver a wide variety of results. The term was literally invented to describe that aspect of the system.

Voodoo said:
You are ignoring the Demand for money. Mostly because that is difficult to measure in a nice little chart.
Click to expand...

No, I am not. Demand for money is partly measured by velocity numbers, and yes there are nice little charts that reflect that. Credit is also another measure of the demand for money, which is also distillable to a nice little chart.

Your problem is you have a fixed idea of what inflation means, when in reality it is one variable in a movable feast of numbers that can produce quite a range of outcomes.

This is exactly why the term has been obfuscated and equated to rising prices in the minds of the public. The less that people understand the one thing that is controlled by government, the better as far as that team is concerned.
 
Voodoo said:
The FED does NOT control long-term interest rates. Much to their chagrin and what they would like you to believe.
Click to expand...

The fact is, they have a degree of control within limits, limits that the market can and will override if it loses faith. 'Control' is a grey area, up to a point, just like the gold market, up to a point it works. The fact is, we haven't really seen the bond vigilantes for decades, and so far the debt markets have largely done the Feds bidding. Ultimately, they will most probably lose the control that they do have, but I am not sure if we can argue that has happened yet. I'm all ears if you can put together a contrary, coherent argument. Pure market force would delight me.

None of this is absolute, none of this is black or white, it is all balance of probability stuff given other factors. All the stuff that allows a master of his craft to occasionally do stuff that breaks all the rules and that will sink a rookie in most circumstances. I'm sure the skilled among you can relate that to your life. It is ALWAYS yes but, if this, then that. Masters bend the rules on a nuanced understanding of what they are dealing with. Absolutism throws nuance out the window.
 

We have very different definitions of Inflation. I believe this is one of those terms that has been either corrupted (like in politics the term Anarchist) or has been more accurately used. This is a good article.

Defining Inflation | Mises Institute

The U.S. government's plan to introduce an improved Consumer Price Index that theoretically would measure inflation more accurately is an exercise in futility.
mises.org

If you wanna just talk about money supply than just state that... no need for another term.

If you want "Inflation" to be ONLY the money supply then you need to invent a new term to describe the more complicated processes that increase prices.
 

I disagree, inflation isn't a good way to describe any price rise. It's a great way to describe one of four factors in the basic equation.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Menu
Log in
Register
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more…